Middle East Notebook

January 30

2012-01-30T11:19:00.003-06:00

Here’s the best of the bad news: the Arab protests amount to a much-needed reminder to the Israelis that their region is filled with Islamists, and that paying off dictators cannot solve Israel’s problems in the long term.
But here’s real bad news: the Arab protests are a distraction from the threat of a nuclear Iran. The regime in Tehran continues to inch closer to the nuclear threshold, but the Israeli response is still fuzzy. Will the Israelis neutralize it with force? Has the Obama administration given them a green light? Judging from the heated debate inside Israel, and the outward disagreements with Washington, Israel’s way forward is far from settled.

India says it won't participate in Iran oil embargo

India, the world's fourth-largest oil consumer, said it would not take steps to cut petroleum imports from Iran despite US and European sanctions against Tehran Sunday night.

Iran ground force commander: U.S. wouldn't dare attack us

Pourdastan said that despite the fact that the U.S. dispatched the USS Carl Vinson aircraft carrier to the Persian Gulf, and despite the advanced weaponry in America's possession, fears of an Iranian retaliation would deter any kind of attack by the U.S.

Russia says Syria authorities agree to talks, but opposition refuses

A senior member of the Syrian opposition said on Monday that the Syrian National Council had not received any formal invitation to attend talks with Syria's authorities in Russia, and would decline if one arrived.

Britain warns Russia not to block UN over Syria

Foreign Secretary William Hague was on Monday flying to New York to lend Britain's support to an Arab-backed draft resolution calling on the country's authoritarian leader Bashar al-Assad to step down and pave the way for a transfer of power.

How to get Russia on board in Syria? Hint: Think of the sea

Moscow has so far refused to support international action against al-Assad, frustrating other major powers’ desire for a U.N.-supported call for his regime to end. Moscow’s obstructionism is not so much because it likes the al-Assad regime, which it has supported since the 1970s. Rather, Russia fears that by losing influence over Damascus, it will also lose its only Mediterranean maritime base, located in the Syrian coastal town of Tartus. For Moscow, this would usher in a catastrophic lockout of the Mediterranean and the “warm” seas.

Zvi Bar'el: When it comes to the UN, Assad has nothing to fear

Bashar Assad isn't going anywhere yet. On Friday, Russia made it clear that any draft resolution that would make its way to the UN's agenda and that would include the demand to oust Assad would be vetoed. By doing so, Russia gave the Arab-French initiative a resounding slap in the face for demanding just that: a transfer of power from Assad to his deputy, the formation of a unity cabinet with opposition movements, preparing for free elections, and an interrogation of all involved in the murdering of civilians in the country.

Syrian forces tighten grip on Damascus suburb

Syrian forces tightened their grip on Damascus’ outskirts on Monday, as the Arab League pushed a UN resolution drawn up with Western powers condemning President Bashar al-Assad’s regime.

Syrian regime 'importing snipers' for protests

Even as the government was blaming the uprising on plots by its Arab neighbours and "foreign elements", it was turning to its regional allies to help to suppress the protests.

Regime executes Free Syrian Army colonel: NGO

The report could not be immediately confirmed.
In June, Harmush became the first Syrian military officer to publicly declare his opposition to the regime's deadly crackdown on protesters while speaking to AFP in the Turkish village of Guvecci.

Assad is taking notes from Israel

The list can go on and on. But the issue remains: this is a regime holding on to power in the name of resisting Israel. This is a regime that still receives the support of many in Lebanon because it backs Hezbollah and its “sacred” resistance. This is a regime that Hezbollah supporters defend because they cannot forget the pain caused by Israel’s crimes in Lebanon. And yet, this is a regime inflicting the same pain on its own people.

Rami Khouri: A terrifying menu for Syria’s endgame

In the last few months, I have heard dozens of scenarios for how things might play out in Syria. Some are plausible, others are fantastic, but all are suggested seriously by usually knowledgeable observers and analysts. They go something like this.

Syria uprising: Religion overshadowing the democratic push

The sectarian fault line in Syria is growing more apparent as the conflict steadily intensifies between the Alawite-dominated regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and the mainly Sunni rebel Free Syrian Army.

Barry Rubin: Why Syria’s regime is surviving a revolution

Despite what is now the longest-running revolution in Middle Eastern history, the Syrian regime will probably be in power on December 31, 2012. I don’t say that because it’s what I want to happen — Syria’s revolution is more democratic-minded than those in Libya or Egypt; the government is far more repressive than the former dictatorships in Tunisia or Egypt — but because it seems inevitable.

'Egypt's military considering early power transfer'

Originally scheduled to turn control to the newly-elected president after elections in June, the military has come under tremendous popular pressure to relinquish power sooner.

King receives Hamas chief in presence of Qatar crown prince

His Majesty also stressed Jordan’s support for the Palestinian people’s right to establish their own independent state within the 1967 borders with East Jerusalem as its capital through negotiations that should be based on the two-state solution and international resolutions, which, he said, is a top priority for Jordan.

Hamas leader Haniyeh sets out for Iran, Gulf states

Hamas spokesman Taher al-Nono said Haniyeh, who travels via Egypt since Israel bars other exits from Gaza, was going to Tehran at the invitation of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. But he gave no details of the agenda for talks in Tehran.

'Turkey denies promise of $300m. aid to Hamas'

According to the newspaper, Turkish officials said reports of Turkish aid to the Islamist group were fabricated, saying "there is no cash to Hamas, but Turkey is, of course, engaged in projects to deliver humanitarian aid to Gaza."

Peres, at Davos, blasts Turkey for funding terrorist Hamas

President Shimon Peres lashed out against Hamas' financial backers on Saturday, claiming at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, that foreign benefactors have handed the Islamist terror group that rules the Gaza Strip more than $900 million annually – and said that Turkish support of terror groups is on the rise.

Turkey may soon host Hamas

As Hamas looks to leave its long-standing offices in Damascus, where the Assad regime now teeters, Turkey’s President Abdullah Gul is neither confirming nor denying reports that the group may relocate its offices to Turkey. According to Hurriyet Daily News:

Elliott Abrams: Turkey and Hamas

One recent report says “a high-ranking Hamas official told the Al-Sharq newspaper on Thursday” that “Turkey has agreed to carry out a project to support Hamas and rebuild Gaza. According to the official, Hamas will open an official office in Turkey in the coming weeks.” I have seen other reports suggesting that Turkey has replaced Iran as the largest donor to Hamas, pledging $300 million over the coming year.

Palestinian TV airs show praising Fogel family murderer

Palestinian television aired an interview with the relatives of the Fogel family murderers earlier this month, praising the two cousins convicted with the brutal attack as "heroes."

Palestinian TV celebrates mass murderer

At times, it seems for those who wish to blame Israel for the lack of peace in the Middle East, there is nothing the Palestinians could do to reassess their thinking. But surely even the most dedicated finder of fault with Israel would have to be shocked by the latest outrage promoted by the official television station of the Palestinian Authority. PA TV runs a show titled “For You,” which is dedicated to stories about Arab prisoners being held in Israeli jails. But last week’s edition broke new ground when it comes to promoting contempt for the value of Jewish life among Palestinians.

'PA incitement is confidence destroying measure'

Later, during the meeting with Gilmore, Netanyahu said that while many ask Israel to take confidence building measures toward the Palestinians, the type of incitement being aired in the PA was destroying Israel’s confidence.

So, you think the Palestinians are actually interested in negotiating?

As I noted earlier, one area in which Palestinians need no help from anyone is finding excuses to shun negotiations. Currently, of course, they are claiming Israel’s position on borders leaves no room for progress. But if you want to see the real reason talks are stalemated, take a look at what happened last week, when Israel tried to present its position on security arrangements at a negotiating session in Amman: Chief Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat refused to even let the Israeli official speak, saying he had no “mandate to negotiate security arrangements” until Israel presented “detailed documents” with its position on borders.

Erasing 20 years of history

When I first read Jonathan’s post yesterday, I thought he was blaming President Barack Obama unfairly: The Palestinians don’t need Obama to produce excuses for shunning negotiations; they’ve produced plenty all by themselves (about which more in a separate post). But when I read the New York Times article he referenced, I was shocked – not by the Palestinians’ position, but by reporter Ethan Bronner’s. For when a Palestinian official asserted that Israel’s demand to retain the major settlement blocs “abandons … the framework we have been focused on for the past 20 years,” Bronner, who as a veteran Israeli correspondent should surely have known better, parroted this without a word of demurral – thereby erasing 20 years of history in which every single proposal ever discussed had Israel keeping the settlement blocs.

Obama’s ’67 borders mistake haunts talks

The Palestinian reaction to Israel’s position about West Bank settlement blocs once again demonstrates that rather seeking an agreement that will lead to a Palestinian state, what they are doing is looking for an excuse to avoid ever having to sign a peace deal. Even worse, it is evidence that President Obama’s misguided intervention into the question of future borders last May is still having a harmful effect on the effort to revive negotiations.

IAF commander: Israel's aerial superiority is in danger

Israel Air Force chief Ido Nehushtan said Sunday that Israel's aerial superiority in the Middle East is in danger, since neighboring countries are being equipped with increasingly advanced weaponry which could end up in the hands of terrorists.

January 29

2012-01-29T11:55:00.002-06:00

Lee Smith: The Hitler test

The editors of magazines and newspapers have a responsibility as gatekeepers of polite society. It turns out the gatekeepers haven’t been vigilant. We live in a culture where the social taboo against anti-black racism is so fierce that violating the taboo means certain expulsion from polite company. But the very reverse process is taking place when it comes to anti-Semitism: The taboo is being rapidly eroded, and those who ought to confront it are enabling it.
. . . No doubt there are some in the Jewish community who would prefer that I—who, like Wright, am not Jewish—stay out of what they perceive to be essentially an intramural debate. Tough luck. This is not just about the Jews. Anti-Semitic ideas and language corrode our entire social fabric. It is my business. And there is something wrong with anyone, especially those who are not Jewish, who thinks this isn’t their problem as well.

'West implanted Israel into ME to control oil'

“Why did they install the Zionist regime (Israel)? To gain control over oil, as well as the popular and revolutionary uprisings in the Middle East,” Iranian news agency Press TV quoted Ahmadinejad as saying during a speech at a youth conference in Tehran.

Iran moving closer to stage where it will be too late to destroy nuclear facilities, Israel warns

"We are determined to prevent Iran from turning nuclear," he told the World Economic Forum in Davos. "And even the American president and opinion leaders have said that no option should be removed from the table.
"It seems to us to be urgent, because the Iranians are deliberately drifting into what we call an immunity zone where practically no surgical operation could block them."

Hamid Karzai plans Taliban talks in Saudi Arabia

Disclosure of the plan to open a separate channel comes amid continuing Afghan distrust of the Qatar initiative which several in Mr Karzai's inner circle believe is an attempt to reach a secret deal behind their backs.

Syria kills dozens in bombardment of border town

Rankous, a mountain town of 25,000 people, 19 miles north of Damascus, has been under tank bombardment since Wednesday, when it was besieged by several thousand troops led by the elite Fourth Division, under the command of President Bashar al-Assad's brother Maher, they said.

Arab League halts Syria monitoring mission

"Given the critical deterioration of the situation in Syria and the continued use of violence ... it has been decided to immediately stop the work of the Arab League's mission to Syria pending presentation of the issue to the league's council," the statement said.

The Free Syrian Army bleeds the Assad regime

The Free Syrian Army (FSA) is now engaged in combat in at least six of the country's fourteen governorates, inflicting greater losses on regime personnel and equipment than at any time since its involvement in the uprising began. Both its ranks and its popular support are growing, and its forces have the types of weapons they need for the kind of warfare they are conducting. Although it does not yet threaten the regime's survival, the militia has at least temporarily forced government troops out of some areas, including near the capital. In short, the FSA is helping to drive the process that will ultimately bring down the regime, and the international community should assist it in doing so.

This Week in History: Assad flattens Hama

In the early hours of February 3, 1982, a call to launch an uprising went out among Sunni rebels as thousands of government troops descended on the western Syrian city of Hama. The military offensive, ordered by then-Syrian president Hafez Assad, came after at least a decade of guerrilla and terror attacks against the regime, and two years after a nearly successful assassination attempt against the president. Tens of thousands of Syrians would be killed by the end of the month.

Egypt Islamists seek more gains in upper house polls

The Muslim Brotherhood, which was banned during his rule, won 47 percent of lower house seats, far more than any other party, and a low turnout on Sunday was blamed by some voters on the feeling that the upper house vote now mattered little.

Clashes erupt in Cairo during anti-army protest

Hundreds of Egyptian protesters demanding an immediate end to military rule clashed on Sunday with rivals in civilian clothes outside central Cairo's state media building, the same place where 25 people were killed in a demonstration in October.

Turkey may provide Hamas with $300 million in annual aid

Turkey may provide Hamas with $300 million in annual aid, Turkish sources report. The aid would take place of Iranian funding, which has been significantly reduced.

Meshal: Hamas won't tolerate Israeli schemes to turn Jordan into Palestinian homeland

Hamas chief Khaled Meshal on Sunday made his first official visit to Jordan since the kingdom expelled him more than a decade ago and after talks with King Abdullah insisted that Jordan will not be a substitute homeland for the Palestinians.
"We are happy with this new good start ... We are keen on building strong ties with Jordan and on its security, stability and interests," AFP quotes Meshal as saying in a statement after the meeting.

Khaled Abu Toameh: Mashaal in Amman: No Palestinian state in Jordan

"Jordan belongs to the Jordanians and Palestine to the Palestinians," Mashaal said in a message aimed at reassuring King Abdullah that Hamas does not challenge his monarchy.

Hamas leader visits Jordan for first time in 13 years

The leader of Hamas travelled to Jordan on his first official visit since he was expelled 13 years ago to meet with King Abdullah, amid persistent reports that the group is seeking to remove its long-term base from Damascus.

Hamas chief’s visit to Jordan marks culmination of Arab Spring aftermath

More than a reversal in state policy, the return of Hamas’ politburo chief to Amman marks the culmination of a year of regional and geopolitical shifts stretching from Rabat to Riyadh with lasting implications on Jordan’s position in the post-Arab Spring Middle East, according to analysts.
Since its appointment in October of last year, the Awn Khasawneh government has prioritised improving ties with Hamas, which have been “limited” since the 1999 expulsion of the movement’s leaders from Amman, a decision Khasawneh has referred to on numerous occasions as a “political and constitutional” mistake.

'Hamas denies it is quitting Syria HQ'

"Hamas has not taken any decision to leave Syria, and we are still there," Barhoum told AFP, adding that the visible movement of Hamas officials out of Syria is related to inter-Palestinian political reconciliation.

Israel Police shut down Hamas-linked institutions in East Jerusalem

The police shut down both a soccer club and a charity organization for a period of 30 days, under orders from Israel Police Chief. Israel has closed down 10 different institutions in East Jerusalem in the past year for connections with terrorist organizations, particularly Hamas.

Netanyahu: Prospects of progress in Mideast peace talks 'not good'

"As things stand now, according to what happened over the past few days - when the Palestinians refused even to discuss Israel's security needs with us - the signs are not particularly good," he told his cabinet in public remarks.

Abbas: Israel to blame for failed peace talks in Jordan

Abbas made the comments to reporters in Ramallah on Saturday after a meeting with visiting Irish Foreign Minister Eamon Gilmore. He claimed that during talks mediated by Jordan in recent weeks, Israel had presented an unclear position on security matters and on the question of borders between Israel and a future Palestinian state. Palestinian sources said Israel's border proposal would have prevented the establishment a Palestinian state.

January 27

2012-01-27T11:50:00.003-06:00

Holocaust survivor recalls kindness of US troops

Rather than surrendering them to the Allies closing in from the east and west, the prisoners feared their captors were planning to plunge their train into the Elbe River and drown everyone.
“Panic and fear spread quickly,” recalled the Polish-born Israeli who survived the Warsaw Ghetto and the Bergen-Belsen concentration camp in Germany. “Just as we were at the point of despair, two American tanks came rolling down a hill and saved us.”

MEMRI: Marking International Holocaust Remembrance Day: This past year's research from the Tom Lantos Archives on Antisemitism and Holocaust denial

Seven years ago, the United Nations General Assembly designated January 27 as International Holocaust Remembrance Day. The Tom Lantos Archives on Anti-Semitism and Holocaust Denial, launched in 2009, is the world's foremost resource on this subject, serving legislators, policymakers, and researchers around the world.

Can there be a second Holocaust?

In recent years, the Holocaust has been subject to an increasingly sickening blend of ruthless politicization, deliberate distortion, crass commercialization and an often abject sentimentalism.
More ominously, it has also become a weapon of choice for many of Israel’s worst enemies and for a resurgent anti-Semitism which brands the entire enterprise of Holocaust memory as nothing but a “Zionist plot.”

Planning genocide in plain sight

On this grim 70th anniversary of Wannsee, let us contemplate how a disbelieving world can stand idly by as evil regimes coolly harness their bureaucracies to methodically achieve horrendous goals. Whatever the double speak (as the Wannsee crowd used the phrase "final solution" to mask its program of mass extermination), the outcome is clear to all who wish to see it. Had they been invited, the Iranian regime and the Taliban would have been enthusiastic participants in the Wannsee Conference.

The big lie returns

The man whose book Mearsheimer called “fascinating and provocative,” a work that “should be widely read by Jews and non-Jews alike,” is an anti-Semite, pure and simple. A saxophone player by trade, Atzmon was born and raised in Israel but subsequently moved to London. He proclaims himself either an “ex-Jew” or a “proud self-hating Jew” and was quoted approvingly by Turkey’s Islamist prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, at the Davos conference in 2009: Denouncing Israel in vociferous terms before a horrified Shimon Peres, Erdogan quoted Atzmon as saying, “Israeli barbarity is far beyond even ordinary cruelty.”

Caroline Glick's Column One: The Zionist imperative

Today’s principal form of Jew-hatred is anti- Zionism. Anti-Zionism is similar to previous dominant forms of Jew hatred such as Christian anti-Judaism, xenophobic and racist anti- Semitism, and Communist anti-Jewish cosmopolitanism in the sense that it takes dominant, popular social trends and turns them against the Jews. Anti-Zionism’s current predominance owes to the convergence of several popular social trends which include Western post-nationalism, and anti-colonialism.

Iran nuclear questions to be exposed by inspection

Yukiya Amano, the International Atomic Energy Agency chief told AFP that the organisation's previous efforts to verify whether all its activities were for non-military purposes had been hampered by "a lack of cooperation" from Iran which he hoped would change.

Barak calls on world to stop Iranian nuclear threat

Speaking as part of a panel on Iran at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Barak told those assembled that "you can't conceive of a stable world order when Iran has nuclear weapons."

Barak: World must act against Iran before it's too late

Amid fears that Israel is nearing a decision to attack Iran's nuclear program, Barak said tougher international sanctions are needed against Tehran's oil and banks so that "we all will know early enough whether Iranians are ready to give up their nuclear weapons program."

Israeli officials think Iran retaliation threat is a bluff, NYT reports

Citing a number of officials and reports, the New York Times said that estimates that a strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities “would set off a catastrophic series of events” is considered by some to be “partly a bluff,” and that these estimates are accepted at the top levels of the Israeli government.

Obama’s feckless Iran policy

Well, there is no mystery why Israel’s views on this issue and new academic works are appearing: Israel is making a concerted effort to make its own threat of military action credible. Unlike the U.S. administration that currently bemoans how disruptive military action would be, Israelis are saying the opposite: We don’t want to strike, but we could handle the fallout.

Barry Rubin: Israel is not about to attack Iran and neither is the United States: Get used to it

The radio superhero, The Shadow, had the power to “cloud men’s minds.” But nothing clouds men’s minds like anything that has to do with Jews or Israel. This year’s variation on that theme is the idea that Israel is about to attack Iran. Such a claim repeatedly appears in the media. Some have criticized Israel for attacking Iran and turning the Middle East into a cauldron of turmoil (not as if the region needs any help in that department) despite the fact that it hasn’t happened.

Iraq sectarian war flares as funeral bomb kills 29

A suicide bomber killed at least 29 people on Friday by driving an explosives-laden vehicle into a Shia Muslim funeral procession in Baghdad, heightening fears that Iraq is in the grips of sectarian conflict.

Syrian rebels claim they captured Iranian soldiers

The Syrian rebel army, dubbed the 'Free Syria Army,' posted a video on Friday featuring Iranian soldiers and officers from the Revolutionary Guard who they captured during fighting in Homs, they claimed.

The view from Damascus: Assad regime is 'weak' and 'robbing banks' to finance repression

While the Syrian regime pummels away at long-restive cities such as Deraa and Hama, the new focal point for the revolution is none other than Damascus itself. Rebels, composed now of both army defectors and armed civilians, claim to be operating openly in Harasta, Hamowriya, Su'ban, Madaya and Ghouta, kidnapping regime personnel and taking the fight directly to Assad’s most elite (and loyal) army divisions and intelligence bureaus. There's now even an all-women Free Syrian Army (FSA) brigade.

Outside Syria's capital, suburbs look like war zone

When Arab League observers headed to the suburbs of Damascus Thursday, Syrian security refused to accompany them to most areas, because they are no longer in control there.

Michael Young: A gesture Lebanon must not ignore

On Wednesday the Syrian National Council, which is leading the opposition to the regime of President Bashar al-Assad from abroad, made a significant gesture toward Lebanon.

Egypt's new face is not a source of optimism for average Israeli

Katatni and his Muslim Brotherhood comrades didn't mention the fact that their organization was not present at the first demonstrations and joined the uprising only belatedly, on Friday, January 28. The Muslim Brotherhood has managed to wrest credit for Egypt's version of the Arab Spring out of the hands of its young secular compatriots who took the first, fateful steps a year ago.

Peace treaty in peril

The new turn in Egyptian politics coincides with a major change in American Middle Eastern policy. On Nov. 25, the administration of President Barack Obama shifted its public position on the continuing standoff between the Egyptian army and the liberal demonstrators in Cairo's Tahrir Square.

'Mashaal has effectively abandoned Syria HQ'

The leader of the Palestinian Islamist movement Hamas, Khaled Mashaal, has effectively abandoned his headquarters in the Syrian capital, Damascus, diplomatic and intelligence sources said on Friday.

Ya'alon: Hamas exploiting democratic system

Democracy can help stabilize countries, he explained, but must be achieved “through education rather than elections.”

Security and Defense: Waiting for a trigger

It is true that a nuclear Iran features at the top of Military Intelligence’s threat list for the coming year, followed closely by Syria and Hezbollah. But at the same time, there is almost a complete consensus within the IDF that the most volatile front – and the one that will erupt first – is the Gaza Strip.

PA officials: Israeli border proposal a non-starter

Israel's envoy to the talks, Yitzhak Molcho, outlined Wednesday night for the Palestinians the principles and parameters that will guide Israel's policy on border issues, an Israeli government official said. According to the official, Molcho did not draw a line on a map, but rather spoke in general principles about what Israel would take into consideration when drawing that line.

Israel presents the Palestinians with its stance on borders

One of the principles that Molho presented was that in any permanent agreement between Israel and the Palestinians, most of the Israelis who live in the West Bank will remain in Israeli territory, while the Palestinians in the West Bank will be in the area allotted for a future Palestinian state.

January 26

2012-01-26T11:47:00.003-06:00

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad brushes off EU sanctions on Iran oil

"There was a time when 90 per cent of our trade was with the Europeans. It has now dropped to 10 per cent. We didn't call for this. Cut it (trade) and let's see who will incur the loss," he said. "It is the West that needs Iran and the Iranian nation will not lose from the sanctions."

Will Obama take Ahmadinejad’s bait?

Optimists may interpret Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s call for new talks with the United States and Europe about his country’s nuclear program as a sign that international sanctions are working. But the notion that Tehran is looking for a way out of the nuclear standoff is exactly what Ahmadinejad and the ayatollahs who actually run Iran want Washington to believe. With pressure mounting on the Obama administration to implement sanctions on Iran’s Central Bank–a measure that would set in motion a limited embargo on the country’s export of oil–the Islamist regime is hoping to give the president an excuse to back away from the confrontation.

Former IDF chief: Israel must prepare for possible attack on Iran

During a lecture at the Institute for National Security Studies, Ashkenazi stressed that Israel's strategy on Iran must be a combination of several approaches.

Israeli hacker team brings down Iranian websites

Israeli hackers brought down Iran's Press TV website and two websites belonging to the Ministry of Health and Medical Education on Thursday.
The hackers, who call themselves "IDF Team," said their actions were a response to a series of attacks on Israeli sites the previous day.

Shiite leader Al-Hakim urges end to Iraqi political crisis

A top Iraqi Shiite official said Thursday that the political crisis pitting Shiite officials against his country's largest Sunni-backed bloc must end.
But Ammar Al-Hakim, a powerful cleric and leader of the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council, did not offer any change in the legal challenge that started the standoff: An arrest warrant that Iraq's Shiite-led government filed against the Sunni vice president, Tareq Al-Hashemi, on terrorism charges, sending him into virtual exile to the Kurdish autonomous region in northern Iraq.

Islamist militants led by Anwar al-Awlaki relative leave seized Yemen town

Islamist militants led by a relative of Anwar al-Awlaki, who took over a Yemeni town last week, have said they will leave in exchange for the formation of a council to govern it and the release of several jailed comrades.

Tony: Kurds and sway

If there is one group in Syria that embodies the trans-national currents running through Syrian society, and which is likely to have increasing influence in the post-Assad era, it’s the Kurds. Sitting at the intersection between Turkey, Syria and Iraq, the Kurdish minority, it is commonly recognized, will play a critical role in the success of the Syrian revolution and in the shaping of the post-Assad order.

One step forward, two steps back

On the same day, the Arab League, after a marathon meeting in Cairo, and in a further bid to bring an end to 10 months of bloodshed in Syria, decided to extend its heavily criticized, and arguably farcical, monitoring mission to the troubled country. The league also presented a framework for a peaceful transition of power and the holding of elections. But if Saleh’s flight into exile represents another feather in the cap of the so-called Arab Awakening, the league’s weak position on Syria shows more blood will no doubt be spilled before one of the main pillars of Arab authoritarianism is to be toppled.

Arab League resumes observer mission in Syria

Arab League observers in Syria, depleted by a pullout of their Gulf Arab colleagues, have resumed work for the first time in a week during which a bloody struggle between President Bashar al-Assad and his opponents has raged on.

Arab League observers resume work amid Syria violence

Security forces deployed across the Damascus suburb of Duma on Thursday, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said. Duma, a protest hotbed that has recently seen a rise in rebel activity, was rocked by loud explosions overnight, according to activists living there. The British-based Observatory said army operations under way in parts of the countryside around the capital had led to fighting on Wednesday night but said there were no signs of clashes in Duma on Thursday since security forces deployed.

Diplomacy to remove Assad gains momentum

And, in fact, U.S. and international diplomacy aimed at removing Assad is quickly gaining momentum. An Arab League ministerial meeting on January 22 found that the Syrian government's "partial progress" was "not enough" and urged the establishment within two months of a "national unity government" based on a "serious political dialogue" with the opposition -- all under the authority of a vice president, rather than President Assad. Not surprisingly, the Assad regime rejected this plan, arguing that it went beyond the Arab League's authority, violated Syrian sovereignty, and represented "a conspiratorial scheme hatched against Syria" for foreign intervention "led by the Qatari government."

Al Qaeda 'poised to launch suicide attacks in Syria'

Bakri, once nicknamed the 'Tottenham Ayatollah', said hard line Salafi Muslim groups, including al Qaeda, and his own Al-Ghuraba group, also proscribed in the UK, are ready to help their 'Muslim brothers' with a campaign of suicide attacks against President Bashar al Assad.

Moshe Arens: Better late than never

For a change, here is good news from Beirut. UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon made news during his recent visit. "I am deeply concerned about the military capacity of Hezbollah and the lack of progress in disarmament," he told a news conference in Beirut after meeting Lebanese leaders. "All these arms outside of the authorized state authority, it's not acceptable," he declared.
It's about time somebody made things clear to the Lebanese.

Egypt slaps travel ban on US NGO staff

The move comes amid a crackdown on foreign-funded NGOs.
It is likely to further strain relations between Egypt and the United States after prosecutors last month stormed the offices of groups including IRI as part of a probe into allegations of illegal funding from abroad.

Obama set to speed aid to Egypt-official

Undersecretary of State Robert Hormats, part of a U.S. delegation that held unprecedented talks last week with Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood, said Washington wanted to provide "more immediate benefits" to Egyptians, who earlier this month conducted their first democratic elections in decades.

Reporter's Notebook: Tahrir Square, one year later

Fast forward a year to January 25, 2012. Again, it was a national holiday, but it has been rechristened: National Revolution Day. Like many times over the past year, Tahrir Square was filled with flags and signs, toddlers with black, red and white face paint and men clambering up lampposts and shouting from the top.

Muslim Brotherhood repeats: No talks with Israel

“Our group is not prepared to conduct dialogue with Israel – that is our decision.
. . . “It is illogical to open dialogue, any dialogue, given the current Israeli policies against the Arab peoples,” he said. “We will reject any request from the Israeli embassy to meet with leaders of the group.”

EU working on Israeli incentives package for PA

Palestinians declare exploratory talks with Israel 'a failure' as parties hold last meeting in Amman. EU's Ashton scrambles to salvage negotiations, keep Palestinians from walking away from talks. Abbas to consider next steps with Arab League next week.

Palestinians: Peace talks end with no progress

"The Israelis brought nothing new in these meetings," said one Palestinian official familiar with the talks. "We are now going to assess our options and will consult our brothers in the Arab League on February 4."

Talks ‘possible’ if Israel agrees borders — Abbas

“If we demarcate the borders, it is possible to return to negotiations, but the Israelis don’t want to determine the borders,” Abbas said, according to remarks carried by WAFA news agency.

In rare court appearance, Marwan Barghouti calls for a peace deal based on 1967 lines

Former Fatah leader Marwan Barghouti appeared in Jerusalem's Magistrate Court on Wednesday to testify in the lawsuit filed by the family of Esther Kleiman, a resident of Neveh Tsuf who was killed in a gunfire attack in 2002 northwest of Ramallah.
Barghouti, who is likely to become the next Palestinian President, was convicted by the Israeli justice system of five counts of murder – four Israelis and a Greek monk - during the second intifada. There is no question he supported and encouraged violence.

Hamas wants a ‘branch’ in Jordan

The source stressed that Hamas’ intentions to establish a presence in the Kingdom comes as part of the movement’s desire to “expand” its diplomatic reach and not a sign that the Palestinian movement is abandoning its Damascus headquarters.

Is Meshaal stepping down to step up?

Hamas is in flux. In the Palestinian territories, it is looking to reconcile with Fatah and create a unity government, even while holding onto power in Gaza. In Egypt, its sympathetic cousins the Muslim Brotherhood control the new parliament. In Jordan, its elements have an opportunity to gain ground if they can avoid getting smacked down by a panicked King Abdullah II. And most of all, in Syria, long the group’s base, it is a group non grata that is leaving: its refusal to pay obeisance to President Assad during the dictator’s months-long, violent repression of internal dissent has earned it street cred in much of the region but ill will in Damascus. So it was interesting over the weekend when the group announced that its longtime political leader Khaled Meshaal will resign. Combine it with news that Meshaal is otherwise raising his regional profile—he hopes to make an unprecedented visit to Gaza via Egypt with Palestinian President Abbas, in a huge symbolic sign of reconciliation; he plans to travel to Jordan, where he has residency papers (owing to his being born in the pre-1967 West Bank), and where Abdullah is officially welcoming him in a sign that the wind is at Islamists’ back.

'Israel has declared war on Hamas in West Bank'

Israel has declared war on Hamas representatives in the West Bank, Palestinians said Tuesday, pointing out that five legislators belonging to the Islamist movement have been arrested in the past few days.

Khaled Abu Toameh: The new hypocritical stance of Mahmoud Abbas

The Palestinian Authority has expressed outrage over the arrest of Hamas officials in the West Bank by the Israel Defense Forces -- even though the Palestinian Authority itself has also been arresting Hamas supporters in the West Bank.

January 25

2012-01-25T13:42:00.004-06:00

‘The tide of war’

If saying could make it so, this would all be a marvelous exercise. But there’s a dangerous muddle here, in which the gutting of U.S. defense and the withdrawal of U.S. troops from overseas theaters are confused with an end to war. If the metaphor here is to be one of ocean tides, then the extension of the metaphor is that we are being invited to spread out our well-padded entitlement programs and picnic on the beach — oblivious to the signs that the water is coming back. North Korea and Iran are still working on nuclear bombs and missiles. Iran, along with its ties to al Qaeda, continues to arm and support terrorist groups such as Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, which in turn have networks well beyond the Middle East, including in Latin America — where Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad just completed yet another visit to his pals in Cuba, Nicaragua, Ecuador and Venezuela. China is busy with a massive military buildup. Russia is sending arms to Syria. And, with the U.S. nodding along, Egypt is on its way to Islamist rule. These are not developments that herald an imminent era of peace. Neither is the plot alleged by Obama’s own Justice Department, in which Iran’s Quds Force planned to blow up the Saudi ambassador in a Washington restaurant, just last fall — sometime between Obama’s first two iterations about the receding tide of war, and the last three.

Barry Rubin: Obama’s State of the Union Speech: My response discovers some curious insights and strange formulations

My number-one complaint about Obama—not that there aren’t others but this is in first place—is that he never hints at the dangers in the region precisely because he doesn’t recognize that they exist.

Elliott Abrams: A forward strategy of freedom

U.S. President George W. Bush recognized this stark reality. "Are the peoples of the Middle East somehow beyond the reach of liberty? Are millions of men and women and children condemned by history or culture to live in despotism?" he asked at the 20th anniversary of the National Endowment for Democracy. "Sixty years of Western nations excusing and accommodating the lack of freedom in the Middle East did nothing to make us safe -- because in the long run, stability cannot be purchased at the expense of liberty."

Netanyahu: Iran sanctions won't necessarily halt Iran's nuclear program

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Wednesday that Israel is working to increase international pressure on Iran, but said that thus far, sanctions were unsuccessful in halting Tehran's nuclear program.

Sanctions against Iran grow tighter, but what’s the next step?

As the Obama administration and its European allies toughened economic sanctions against Iran on Monday — blocking its access to the world financial system and undermining its critical oil and gas industry — officials on both sides of the Atlantic acknowledge that their last-ditch effort has only a limited chance of persuading Tehran to abandon what the West fears is its pursuit of nuclear weapons.

Max Boot: West cannot settle for a Japanese-style status quo in Iran

Can it really be that American and European officials can’t tell the difference between Japan and Iran? That is what you would think reading today’s article by Helene Cooper in the New York Times. She writes: “Several American and European officials say privately that the most attainable outcome for the West could be for Iran to maintain the knowledge and technology necessary to build a nuclear weapon while stopping short of doing so.” As a model for Iran, these unnamed officials cite Japan:

Azerbaijan police foil Iran plot to assassinate Israel ambassador

Three Azerbaijani nationals recruited by Iranian intelligence were supplied with a sniper rifle, explosives and money and told to kill Michael Lotem, the Israeli envoy to Baku, according to the country's internal affairs ministry.

Iraq hits out at Turkey as ties worsen

"All Iraqis are proud of belonging to their country and no other. Erdogan has provoked all Iraqis with his comments, particularly those he believes he is defending," Maliki said in a statement released by his office on Tuesday, in a clear allusion to Iraq's Sunni Arab minority.

Red Crescent official shot dead in Syria

Abdulrazak Jbero, a former president of the Syrian Arab Red Crescent and head of its branch in the northern town of Idlib, was shot dead while travelling on the road between Idlib and Damascus.

Iran: The Syrian highway in the fight against Israel is still open

Since the wave of protest in Syria began as part of the Middle Eastern upheavals - with the Middle East being recast in the Islamic mold - the strategic alliance between Iran (and Hizbullah) and Bashar Assad's regime has been put to its ultimate test. Both the international community and the Arab-regional system (and Turkey) are trying to impose a change that entails Bashar's ouster and the fostering of a democratic political process in Syria, with Iran (and Hizbullah) standing alone in backing Syria. At the same time, China and Russia are counter-balancing Western and Arab efforts to oust Bashar, impeding a tough resolution in the UN Security Council.

Collectively failing Syrian society

The international community, powerless and deeply divided, has so far not been acting decisively. The West, which initially hoped the regime would do a better job at managing the crisis -- and thus spare it from a risky adventure in a sensitive part of the world -- has come full circle: although the practicalities remain unclear, the consensus now favors regime-change, with dreams of regional change lurking in the background giving a hoped-for domino effect on Hezbollah in Lebanon and a besieged leadership in Iran. Russia appears concerned about heightened instability in the area at large, the prospect of further empowering Islamists, and the West's typically cavalier attempts to push its agenda under the guise of noble moral values.

Tens of thousands gather in Cairo's Tahrir Square

Thousands of Egyptians rallied in Cairo's Tahrir Square to mark the first anniversary of the country's 2011 uprising, with liberals and Islamists gathering on different sides, in a reflection of the deep political divide in the country.

Tahrir after a year

“This day is beautiful,” says Mohammed Saad, a 29-year-old unemployed translator, standing in the tent city that the Brotherhood has set up. “I’m very happy. I came early in the morning, and we’re going to stay here till Friday.”
A couple of kilometers across the city, the mood is radically different. Thousands of people with signs and megaphones in their hands march down the streets. Angry chants reverberate: “Don’t be afraid! The military has to go!”

Happy birthday to Egypt’s doomed revolution

Indeed, one year after Egypt’s heroic revolt, Washington has no heroes in Cairo, only headaches. But rather than confronting those headaches, the Obama administration has consistently chosen the path of least resistance. Thus, the SCAF’s raids on U.S.-funded NGOs has not put a halt to the $1.3 billion in military aid that Washington sends to Cairo, and the Muslim Brotherhood’s blatant stances against key U.S. interests have gone unchecked. According to Brotherhood political leader Essam El-Erian, when the Deputy Secretary of State visited the organization’s Cairo headquarters in mid-January, the Camp David Accords weren’t even mentioned.

EU transfers €55.4 mil. to UN Palestinian refugee agency

Ashton said that the EU's "continued support to UNRWA is an essential element of the EU strategy to bring peace and stability of the region." The UNRWA website also quoted her as saying that "the €55.4 million contribution we are signing today represents our ongoing commitment to the Palestine refugees."

Amb Ron Prosor addresses UN Security Council on the situation in the Middle East

The primary obstacle to peace is not settlements. The primary obstacle to peace is the so-called "claim of return." Let me repeat that: the major hurdle to peace is the Palestinian’s insistence on the so-called "claim of return".
You will never hear Palestinian leaders say "two states for two peoples". If you ever hear them say "two states for two peoples", please phone my office immediately. Call me "collect" in the event of such an unprecedented occurrence.

The Palestinian Authority’s ATM

Even more interesting is his insistence he will not serve as finance minister, the job he held previous to his current post. To his credit, he doesn’t like the idea of being a front for a Hamas government whose respectability would be pimped abroad in order to continue the flow of aid from the United States and Europe. “I do not really view myself as an ATM for the Palestinian Authority,” said Fayyad.

Israeli, Palestinian negotiators clash at Jordan meeting

A bitter confrontation broke out between the head of the Israeli negotiating team Yitzhak Molcho and chief Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat during their meeting In Jordan on Saturday, after Erekat refused to let a senior Israeli officer present the Israeli position on security arrangements.

'No peace talks unless J'lem agrees on borders'

"If the borders are set it's possible to return to negotiations, but the Israelis do not want established borders" Abbas said following a meeting with Jordanian King Abdullah II.

Hackers paralyze Israeli hospital websites, as cyber war heats up

Hackers attacked the websites of two Israeli hospitals on Wednesday, managing to bring down the sites for several hours in the latest round of the ongoing cyber war between pro-Israeli and pro-Palestinian hackers.

January 24

2012-01-24T11:45:00.003-06:00

Arab Spring sees rise in anti-Semitism

“Charges of an international Jewish conspiracy have been a central motif in the anti-Semitic propaganda that has accompanied the Arab Spring uprisings. This motif has been emphasized in each of the countries especially by way of pointing a blaming finger towards Israel, Zionism and Jews conspiring against Arabs and Muslims.”

Caroline Glick: Our World: America and the Arab Spring

A year ago this week, on January 25, 2011, the ground began to crumble under then-Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak’s feet. One year later, Mubarak and his sons are in prison, and standing trial. This week, the final vote tally from Egypt’s parliamentary elections was published. The Islamist parties have won 72 percent of the seats in the lower house.

Iran's oil shock

The 27 nations of the European Union dealt a huge oil shock to Iran. They agreed to ban Iranian oil to stop its rogue nuclear program. The Europeans will immediately stop signing new contracts to buy Iranian oil. Countries with existing contracts may honor them until July 1.
After that, Iran loses 18 percent of its oil export business … or more. Some of Iran's other big oil customers — Japan and South Korea — also are scrambling to switch suppliers.

Iran: EU oil sanctions will have 'serious consequences'

"Iran condemns this EU move as illogical and unjustifiable and believes it will have serious consequences for Europeans," the Foreign Ministry said in its first official statement after Monday's sanctions. It did not clarify what the consequences would be.

Europe 'damaging own economies' with oil embargo, Iran claims

Instead of blaming sanctions for their economic woes, Iran's leadership chose the opposite course, claiming that the embargo would actually benefit Iranians while hurting Europeans.

Britain, US and France send warships through Strait of Hormuz

Britain, America and France delivered a pointed signal to Iran, sending six warships led by a 100,000 ton aircraft carrier through the highly sensitive waters of the Strait of Hormuz.

Gantz recruiting nations to combat Iran smuggling

Defense officials said Sunday that Gantz’s efforts were part of a larger initiative by the defense establishment to recruit a bloc of countries from around to world to crack down on Iranian arms smuggling in the region, particularly to Hamas in the Gaza Strip and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Israel to United Nations: Take action against Iran

Prosor cited the last International Atomic Energy Agency report saying it proved beyond all doubt that the Islamic Republic sought to obtain nuclear weapons. He said Tehran’s efforts to enrich uranium to 20 percent-levels at its reactor in Qom could serve no other plausible aim other than to develop an atomic bomb.

France rules out early withdrawal from Afghanistan

Alain Juppe, the French foreign minister, has said France would not give in to "panic" and pull its troops out of Afghanistan this year after four of its soldiers were killed there last week.

Baghdad car bombs kill 14, wound dozens

At least 170 people have died in attacks in Iraq since the beginning of the year, many of them Shia pilgrims attending religious commemorations. The last American soldiers left the country Dec. 18.

Brace for the worst in Bahrain

The stage seems to be set for February and March to be the scene of a significant intensification of tensions in Bahrain. The period will mark the one-year anniversaries of the protest movement, the government crackdown, and the “Peninsula Shield” intervention by Saudi-led Gulf Cooperation Council forces. More importantly, recent developments have pushed almost entirely away from substantive moves toward national accommodation or reconciliation.

Syria: Arab League mission on verge of collapse

The Arab League's peace mission to Syria was on the verge of collapsing today after Gulf states followed Saudi Arabia in pulling out.

Gulf states pull observers out of Syria, urge UN action

They said their decision came after "closely following developments in Syria and after they confirmed that the bloodshed and killings there continue [and after] the Syrian regime did not comply with implementing the Arab League decisions."

Moallem says Syria vindicated, blasts Arab "conspirators"

Syrian Foreign Affairs Minister Walid Moallem said Tuesday that a report by Arab observers vindicates Damascus by showing that Syria is implementing the Arab League initiative. Moallem also alluded to the Gulf countries in accusing "some Arabs" of conspiring against Syria.

Egypt parties refuse to commit to women's rights

Many Egyptian political parties, especially dominant Islamist groups, have refused to commit to protecting women's rights and to abolishing the death penalty, Amnesty International said on Tuesday.

Hamas leader to make historic visit to Jordan

The visit is seen as part of Jordan's effort to engage with previously shunned Islamists, who have been gaining ground across the region in the Arab Spring uprisings that toppled dictators in Egypt and Tunisia. Islamists make up the most influential opposition in Jordan and have been gaining strength in recent months, though King Abdullah II has the final say in all matters.

Gaza builders lead economic recovery – with some help from the black market

For three years, Wael Arabeed did not do a day's work. He delved deep into his life savings, accrued over 25 years of working on construction projects in Saudi Arabia, Syria and Egypt, to feed his family. He sold his car. He began to believe his working life was over.
But now the construction engineer has more work than he can handle. Tossing yet another tender request on to his desk, he says: "I have so many offers, I can't even look at them. I'm too busy."

EU to push Israel, Palestinians to return to full peace talks

The European Union wants Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas to set aside his 2010 demand that Israel call a total halt to settlement building in the West Bank before full talks resume.
Israel is being urged to make confidence-building moves, which could include the release of long-term prisoners and easier conditions for Palestinians in Israeli army-controlled areas of the West Bank.

Israel Attorney General to investigate Jerusalem mufti for incitement

Weinstein’s request came a few weeks after Jerusalem’s Mufti Mohammed Hussein quoted a religious text that includes passages about killing Jews during a speech at the 47th anniversary celebration of the Fatah movement in East Jerusalem.

January 23

2012-01-23T11:44:00.003-06:00

Iran rejects new EU sanctions as 'psychological warfare'

The European Union banned imports of oil from Iran on Monday and agreed to freeze the assets of Iran's central bank, joining the United States in a new round of measures aimed at reining in Tehran's nuclear development program.

Iran issues threat over EU oil sanctions

A senior member of Iran's parliament said on Monday the Islamic Republic would close the entry point to the Gulf if new sanctions block its oil exports, reiterating a threat made by officials a month ago that caused a temporary oil price spike.

Iran 'definitely' closing Strait of Hormuz over EU oil embargo

Tensions in the Gulf could reach a breaking point as a senior Iranian official said Iran would “definitely” close the Strait of Hormuz if an EU oil embargo disrupted the export of crude oil, the semi-official Fars news agency reports.

US 'opens talks with Hizb-i-Islami insurgent group'

It is the latest sign of intense political activity in Afghanistan as the US reduces troop levels and tries to broker a peace deal – and the highest level talks yet.

EU adopts new sanctions on Syria's top brass

EU foreign ministers adopted fresh sanctions against Syria's military brass on Monday, targeting a large number of security officials on a new list of people and firms hit by a travel ban and asset freeze.

Arab plan signals end of Assad era

The Arab League's latest roadmap for an end to the crisis in Syria signals that regional states see the Assad era drawing to a close, although it could yet be a slow process, analysts said Monday.

Analysis: Rocky road to unity for Syria opposition

In recent months, opposition movements in Syria have vainly tried to find some common ground that could bring together the ethnic and religious communities that make up the country. Their failure to do so goes a long way to explain why they did not get much needed international recognition and help the way Libya rebels did. Assad still feels secure in the knowledge that he represents the only legitimacy in his country, and believes he can still save his regime at the price of some concessions.

Zvi Bar'el: Rivalry among Syrian defectors could mean another military coup

Even as the Arab coalition against the Syrian regime tightens, and while Saudi Arabia has withdrawn its inspectors to the country and Qatar has upped the pressure to refer the crisis to the United Nations, fissures are emerging within the Syrian opposition which threaten to transform the uprising in the country from a civil protest movement into a military coup.

Fouad Ajami: Syria: The lost bequest of Hafez Assad

Arabs are firm believers in nasab, inherited merit passed on from father to son, a nobility of the blood. No wonder that Hafez Assad was ambivalent about his beginnings. In 1980, before a gathering of learned notables, the ruler, then a decade in power, recounted the adversity of his childhood. He recalled that at one point in his boyhood he had to quit school temporarily because his father couldn’t scrape together the modest tuition. “But we are not commoners. On the contrary, my father was a half aga.” The title “aga,” a modest one in Ottoman parlance, signified a chief, a man of some standing or means. On another occasion, in the same year, speaking to a peasant syndicate, Hafez Assad would tell them he was in truth one of them. “I am first and last a peasant and the son of a peasant. To lie amid the spikes of grain on the threshing floor is, in my eyes, worth all the palaces in this world.”

'Syria purchases 36 fighter planes from Russia'

The deal, signed in December, specifies that production of the planes will begin once initial payments are made.

Hezbollah guarded al-Assad during rally appearance

Hariri also claimed that “when Bashar al-Assad appeared in the midst of supporters in Umayyad Square [in Damascus]…he was being guarded by members of the Hezbollah security apparatus” adding “this public appearance which did not last more than three minutes was very similar to the appearance of [Hezbollah chief] Hassan Nasrallah in front of his supporters during the Ashoura [celebrations].”

Hezbollah, Iran preparing for ‘day after’ Assad

“The assessment that Hezbollah will be severely impacted by Syria’s downfall is unlikely since it will be able to fill the vacuum with assistance directly from Iran,” a senior Israeli defense official explained.

Mr. Prime Minister, good night, and good luck

Ambassador Ali stressed the need to implement agreements signed between the two countries in terms of border control, putting an end to the infiltration of gunmen, the spread of extremism, and preventing verbal attacks on Syria in its sister state Lebanon. He added that Mikati vowed to foil campaigns against Syria, including the smuggling of arms and the infiltration of militants across the border.
So it is happening. The Syrian regime wants Lebanon to increase the crackdown on anti-Assad activists, and Lebanon is accommodating. Mikati “vowed.”

Iran general’s remarks on south Lebanon draw March 14 ire

Politicians from the opposition March 14 coalition lashed out Friday at the head of Iran’s elite Al-Quds Force of the Revolutionary Guards Corp, Brig. Gen. Qassem Suleimani, saying his remarks that south Lebanon fell under Iran’s influence have confirmed Hezbollah’s subservience to Iran. They demanded that Hezbollah clarify his statement. Suleimani, speaking in a conference on youth and the “Islamic Awakening” in Tehran Wednesday, said: “In reality, in south Lebanon and Iraq, the people are under the effect of the Islamic Republic’s way of practice and thinking.” But Suleimani’s remarks, which were carried by Iran’s official news agency IRNA Friday, were mistranslated by Arabic media and interpreted by March 14 politicians to mean that south Lebanon was under Iran’s influence.

Egypt's first post-Mubarak parliament opens

The parliament elected in Egypt's first legislative vote after Hosni Mubarak's ouster nearly a year ago held its inaugural session on Monday, with Islamists dominating the 498-seat chamber.

MB: Egypt assembly picks Islamist speaker

Egypt's Islamist-led parliament voted to appoint a top politician in the Muslim Brotherhood as the new assembly's speaker, the Brotherhood said on its website, a choice that would have been unthinkable when Hosni Mubarak was in power.

Egypt Islamists on eve of power ease talk of Islam

The fundamentalist group has eased off talk of Islamic-style legislation, saying it will focus on fixing Egypt's ailing economy, and it has even backed off introducing further explicit Islamic references in the new constitution it will have a major hand in writing. But it has other tools to push Egypt toward greater religious conservativism.

Barry Rubin: Egypt’s Parliament 75 percent Islamist; Egypt-Israel peace agreement is dead even if treaty still exists

But, they—or at least the Brotherhood—are determined to be cautious. Note that there is a big difference between actually being moderate and simply being patient, advancing step by step toward radical goals. The Western media will report that the Brotherhood is indeed moderate. Actually, as I review coverage over the last year it is almost impossible to find even a single article in the mass media that reports any such evidence, much less analysis, despite the massive documentation available to the contrary .

As region changes, Hamas movement shifts

Buffeted by the winds of the Arab Spring, the Hamas movement is transforming, with power shifting from its exiled leadership towards its government on the ground in Gaza, analysts say.

'Mashaal planning to visit Gaza with Abbas'

Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal is planning a trip to the Gaza Strip along with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas in an effort to support reconciliation between the governments in Gaza and Ramallah, pan-Arab newspaper Al Hayat reported Monday,

Meshaal's move raises doubt on Palestinian unity

Three months after securing a historic prisoner-exchange deal with Israel, Hamas's political leader Khaled Meshaal has said that he will not stand for re-election this summer. The decision comes at a critical time for Hamas as it re-evaluates its relations with sponsors Syria and Iran. And the single greatest issue is the reconciliation process with Fatah.

Khaled Abu Toameh: 'Hamas will defeat Fatah in May elections'

Moreover, internal squabbling between Fatah’s young guard and veteran leaders continues to undermine the faction’s credibility in the eyes of many Palestinians.

Hamas MPs hiding in e. J'lem Red Cross arrested

Undercover officers made the arrest upon sight, Rosenfeld said. "They are suspected of Hamas activity in Jerusalem," he said. Under Israeli law, all activity related to the Hamas terrorist organization is banned.

Abbas’s Mufti preaches Jewish slaughter

Their principal religious leader, Mufti Muhammad Hussein, provided the latest example of mainstream Palestinian opinion. Earlier this month, Hussein told a gathering commemorating the founding of the “moderate” Fatah Party the slaughter of the Jews remains their religious duty. The speech, broadcast on official Palestinian television on Jan. 9, is a classic anti-Semitic incitement to hatred and a violation of the peace accords the Palestinian Authority has signed. The fact that it is has largely gone unreported tells you all you need to know about the distorted vision of the Middle East by the mainstream media.

U.S. General urges closer ties with Israel

The meetings were closed and their contents were not revealed. But General Dempsey, on his first visit to Israel as military chief, was quoted in brief remarks released by the office of Israel’s defense minister as saying, “We have many interests in common in the region in this very dynamic time, and the more we can continue to engage each other, the better off we’ll all be.”

January 22

2012-01-22T11:19:00.004-06:00

Barry Rubin: Why contemporary Western elites don’t understand the world and why their foreign policies fail

Today, the main theory—and one that Barack Obama wrote in his books—is that “underdevelopment” is merely the result of Western exploitation. Such a view, aside from its political implications, will do nothing to help countries improve themselves.
It makes the West a cheerleader for stagnation and reactionary forces. Endless aid is handed over to go either into subsidies to keep regimes in power or into the elites’ Swiss bank accounts. Such an approach is the welfare state on a global basis, with all the failings of that system.

Human Rights Watch chides West for aversion to Islamist groups in Middle East

"The international community must ... come to terms with political Islam when it represents a majority preference," he said. "Islamist parties are genuinely popular in much of the Arab world, in part because many Arabs have come to see political Islam as the antithesis of autocratic rule."
"Wherever Islam-inspired governments emerge, the international community should focus on encouraging, and if need be pressuring, them to respect basic rights - just as the Christian-labeled parties and governments of Europe are expected to do," he said in the introduction to the report.

Libyan Islamists rally to demand sharia-based law

Experts believe the Muslim Brotherhood is the most organized political force and could emerge as the leading political player in Libya after Gaddafi, who harshly suppressed Islamists during his 42 years in autocratic power.

'Iraq risks slipping into authoritarianism'

Iraq risks sliding back towards authoritarian rule with Shi'ite Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's security forces cracking down on protests, harassing opponents and torturing detainees, a US-based human rights monitor said on Sunday.

Gunmen kill four Iraqi soldiers in Fallujah

Fallujah is in mostly Sunni Anbar province, Iraq's largest by area, which was long a bastion of Al-Qaeda and insurgent forces who battled the US military following the 2003 invasion that ousted Saddam Hussein.

Kudos to Iraqi Kurdistan

Domestically, Iraqi Kurdish rulers succeeded in transforming their leadership from one based on patronage networks to one based on winning the hearts and minds of their constituents through economic growth and prosperity.
And because prosperity requires good governance, the Kurdish leadership tapped native talent. Kurdish graduates from the world's finest colleges were lured back home, their experience put to government use.

The end of the U.S-Turkey alliance?

There are other manifestations of estrangement between the two countries. Ankara seems to be de-emphasizing ties with its traditional NATO allies, including the United States, and is placing a priority on strengthening links with Muslim countries. There are several developments over the past four or five years that highlight that policy pivot.

Arab League extends Syria mission by 1 month

Mission to gain additional monitors, resources; support for military intervention scant despite continued killing.

Syrian opposition want Assad referred to UN

Syria's main opposition group formally called on the Arab League to refer President Bashar al-Assad to the UN Security Council, effectively declaring its monitoring mission a failure.

Syrian troops retreat from large Damascus suburb

Douma, about 20 kilometers northeast of Damascus, is an important strategic point for the Assad regime, mainly because of its proximity to Adra, where there is a Scud missile base. In May 2010, the Times of London reported that satellite imagery showed Hezbollah fighters training in the operation of surface-to-surface missiles at a large base near Adra. The photos showed barracks, a large arsenal and a fleet of trucks used to move missiles to Lebanon.

Egypt election results: Islamists take two thirds of seats

The Muslim Brotherhood won by far the biggest share of seats allocated to party lists in Egypt's first freely-elected parliament in decades, final results confirmed, giving it a major role in drafting the country's new constitution.

Erekat calls on Israel to release Hamas's Dweik, 23 others

Chief among the prisoners Erekat called on Israel to release was Palestinian parliamentary speaker Aziz Dweik, a Hamas member arrested on Thursday. IDF soldiers arrested Dweik on suspicion of involvement with terrorist groups, and detained another lawmaker of the group from Bethlehem, Khaled Tafish.

'Haniyeh to run for Hamas Political Bureau chair'

Haniyeh's recent visits to Sudan, Egypt, Tunisia and Turkey were organized as part a campaign to acquaint the countries' leaders with the Hamas prime minister, the report explained, adding that trips to Qatar, Bahrain and Iran have been planned as well.

Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal 'set to run for PLO role'

Having stepped down as Hamas party chairman after 16 years at the movement's helm, Khaled Meshaal looks set to run for a senior position in the PLO in the forthcoming Palestinian elections.

Mishaal wants to step down as leader — Hamas

Hamas leader Khaled Mishaal, who survived a 1997 Israeli assassination bid, has confirmed he wants to quit after eight years in the post, the Islamist movement said on Saturday.

January 20

2012-01-20T11:54:00.002-06:00

Arab World: Qatar, Midwife of the new Arab world

Substantively, that agreement represented the surrender of the pro-Western forces in Lebanon to the pro-Iranian ones. But it was also an indication of the vaulting ambition of Qatar. By brokering the agreement, Qatar announced its arrival as a major player in intra-Arab diplomacy.
The events of the Arab Spring were tailor-made to further increase the influence of Qatar. In addition to its financial muscle – based on one of the world’s largest reserves of natural gas – the main asset possessed by Doha is the Al Jazeera television network.

France deplores 'assassination' of troops as it threatens to pull out of Afghanistan

The killings during a training exercise at the Gwan military base in Kapisa province followed a similar attack last month when an Afghan soldier shot and killed two members of the French Foreign Legion.

IAEA to press Iran over nuclear concerns

The U.N. nuclear watchdog chief said it was his duty to warn the world about suspected Iranian activities that point to plans to develop atomic bombs, maintaining pressure on Tehran ahead of rare talks between Iran and his agency expected this month.

Iran warns Arabs against ‘dangerous’ stance on Hormuz

Iran’s foreign minister warned Arab neighbours on Thursday not to put themselves in a “dangerous position” by aligning themselves too closely with the United States in the escalating dispute over Tehran’s nuclear activity.

Calculating victory: How Iran views confronting the United States

Victory in war means accomplishing one's political objectives, and some Iranian leaders seem to believe they could advance four of their main goals through armed conflict with the United States: namely, resisting "global arrogance," creating disorder in the oil markets, justifying nuclear breakout, and rallying the nation. If Iran were to make significant progress toward these objectives via hostilities against American forces, some in Tehran might conclude that they had won. More likely, however, the optimistic expectations of these overly confident, risk taking Iranian hardliners would not be realized, and war could turn out badly for the regime. Washington can do much to shape the perceptions of both Iranian leaders and world opinion regarding the risks Iran would face from such a conflict.

Iran calls for Israel to be 'punished' for scientist

Such threats have been made before in Tehran and it is unclear how or when they might be carried out. Israel is on guard against attacks on its borders and within, notably by Lebanon's Hezbollah movement, which is supported by Iran.

The Bibi-Obama clash

But first we must understand the Iranian interest: To reach the so-called “nuclear threshold” while at the same time completing the missile program and fortifying Tehran’s nuke sites to make them immune, or almost immune, to an aerial strike. Iran aims to achieve all this without facing stifling economic sanctions already formulated by the US and the West but not yet imposed. In a few months, Tehran’s ally Bashar Assad may be able to overcome Syria’s domestic uprising. Then, Iran’s ability to threaten Israel and the West via the immense arsenal of missiles and rockets handed over to Syria, Hezbollah and the Palestinians in Gaza will be doubled.

Bangkok terror suspect: 'Mossad framed me'

The 47-year-old was arrested last week on terrorism charges after US and Israeli officials had tipped off the Thai government about a planned terror attack by Hezbollah operatives on Thai soil.

At least 6 killed as Assad fights dissent in Syria

At least six people were killed in Syria on Friday and the bodies of six others were turned over to their families, activists said, two days before the Arab League decides whether to keep monitors there despite their failure to halt bloodshed.

Syrian opposition leader seeks to counter Islamists

Syria's religious and ethnic minorities need to work together with liberal Sunni Muslims to counter the influence of Islamists in the uprising against President Bashar Assad, a prominent Sunni Muslim opposition figure said.

To Syrian rebels, Hezbollah is the 'Party of Satan'

Watch this documentary, produced by Egypt's Al Jizah News, about the Free Syrian Army's operations in the largely "liberated" city of Zabadani, about 20 miles outside of Damascus. As the chubby man in the ski mask and the fatigues begins talking for the second time, at around 1:40 in the clip, you'll need to know only this smattering of Arabic: "Hezbollah" means "Party of God." "Hezbashaytan" means "Party of Satan."

Egyptians rally ahead of anniversary of uprising

Hundreds of Egyptians are marching toward Tahrir Square ahead of the one-year anniversary of the uprising that toppled longtime leader Hosni Mubarak.

Michael Totten: A leaner, meaner Brotherhood

Yet the Brothers didn’t make “the revolution”, as people both inside Egypt and beyond like to call what happened in Cairo this past winter. No one movement did. And now that the Islamists are no longer locked in a dialectical struggle with a one-man regime (Mubarak’s National Democratic Party no longer even exists), they are beginning to crack into factions. The political geometry of that cracking process is very interesting, possibly quite consequential, and altogether surprising to most non-native observers.

Thailand officially recognizes Palestinian statehood

The move comes as Palestine pushes for full membership at the UN, a bid Washington opposes because it says a political settlement with Israel must be reached first.

Hamas urges end to Israel-Palestinian talks after West Bank arrests

Hamas' Gaza Strip leader Ismail Haniyeh, recently back from a tour of Arab states, praised the rise of the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood in the Arab world and predicted "black days" for Israel "because the nations know their path now".

Hamas calls for end to PA-Israel talks after arrests

Hamas urged Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas on Friday to suspend exploratory peace talks with Israel following Israel's arrest of two Hamas legislators, and to stop his cooperation on West Bank security with the Israelis.

Khaled Abu Toameh: 'Hamas will defeat Fatah in May elections'

Abbas has announced that he would like to hold elections on May 4. However, many Palestinians are skeptical that he would be able to hold the vote, largely due to the ongoing dispute between Hamas and Fatah.

Palestinian Fatah movement faces election showdown with Hamas, but appears ill-prepared

Fatah, the mainstream Palestinian national movement whose survival is key to hopes for a peace deal with Israel, appears ill-prepared for a promised electoral showdown with the Islamic militant Hamas.

Top U.S. General: We have many joint interests with Israel in Middle East

Gen. Dempsey's visit came as the U.S. is trying to coordinate steps and clarify Israel's intentions with regard to a possible attack on Iran's nuclear installations.

Israel not a strategic asset? Think again

What brought the question to mind was the unnamed intelligence official quoted in Mark Perry’s latest anti-Israel slur at Foreign Policy, who said that while Israel is “supposed to be a strategic asset … There are a lot of people now, important people, who just don’t think that’s true.” For unless you think the world would be a better place if Syria had nukes right now, it’s pretty hard to argue Israel isn’t a strategic asset for America – not only because Israel is the one that destroyed Syria’s reactor in 2007, but because, as the New York Times reported last month, Washington didn’t even know the North Korean-built reactor existed “until Meir Dagan, then the head of the Mossad, Israel’s intelligence service, visited President George W. Bush’s national security adviser and dropped photographs of the reactor on his coffee table.” Only then did U.S. intelligence conduct its own investigation and confirm it.

Caroline Glick's Column One: Mainstreaming anti-Semitism

It has become necessary to rehabilitate Mearsheimer because in the years since he and Walt published their conspiracy theory against Israel and its American supporters, Mearsheimer has actively embraced fringe elements in the US and the world in order to advance his campaign to discredit Israel and its supporters. As Alan Dershowitz highlighted in November, Mearsheimer wrote an enthusiastic endorsement of a psychotically anti-Semitic book written by British jazz musician and prolific anti-Semite Gilad Atzmon.

January 19

2012-01-19T12:50:00.004-06:00

The badly kept secret of Israel's trade throughout the Muslim world

Sanctions threatened by Israel and the United States are also intended to deter companies from considering ties, even indirectly, with Iran. But in today's reality, with crisis weighing on western markets, there are companies ogling the third world - with some finding markets in countries hostile to Israel. These countries also have many adoring fans of Israel's technology and products but, because of political sensitivities, everything must be done on the QT. Stickers and packaging saying "Made in Israel" must be removed and a bill of lading must be produced from an intermediary country - Turkey or somewhere in Europe.

Barry Rubin: Who’s winning in the Middle East? Everyone outside the West knows it’s the Islamists

In contrast, the real Middle East isn't full of revolutionary Islamists who only want an American apology or a boost into power in order to be friends of the United States. It is full of a lot of people, maybe a majority in a number of countries, that would like not to live under radical and repressive dictatorships. It also has a number of governments that want Western help against what they see as their real enemies--Iran and revolutionary Islamists.

'Muslim Brotherhood site rife with anti-Semitism'

The report found that the Islamist group’s website, Ikhwanonline.com, regularly features articles denying the Holocaust and warning Muslims against the covetous and exploitative nature of the “Jewish character.” Other articles extol jihad and martyrdom, condemn Egypt’s peace treaty with Israel and denounce negotiations as means for regaining lands lost by Islam.

Iran warns neighbors: Don't drag US into region

Iran's foreign minister warned Arab neighbors on Thursday not to put themselves in a "dangerous position" by aligning themselves too closely with the United States in the escalating dispute over Tehran's nuclear activity.

Lee Smith: Rationale

Rational, of course, is not the same thing as reasonable. A regime that shoots its own people in the streets, as the Iranian government did in June 2009, is not reasonable. In the policy debate, rationality refers to a regime’s interest in preserving itself. A regime is rational, therefore, if it understands that using a nuclear weapon would elicit a response that might spell its doom. An irrational regime is one that can’t be deterred because it may use a nuclear weapon regardless of the consequences.

New bid to stifle Iran aid to Syria

American officials investigating the Iranian operation said it is designed to quietly ship Syrian crude oil to Iran, where it can be sold on the international market, with revenue going back to Damascus.

Worries grow over Syria chemical weapons arsenal

No one knows the size and quality of the arsenal of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) that the Assad regime has accumulated over the years. Its nuclear aspirations probably ended with a mysterious 2007 attack on a suspected nuclear facility, and experts are divided on whether Syria has biological weapons.

Syrian Muslim Brotherhood leader: Isolate Assad

The leader of Syria's Muslim Brotherhood said world powers should pile diplomatic pressure on President Bashar Assad and he called for a no-fly zone and "safe zones" to be set up to help the Syrian leader's opponents.

Syria's Brotherhood rejected Iran-mediated deal

"We refuse to either go there or receive them until they clearly stop their support of the regime and take a neutral position between the Syrian people and Bashar Assad. As long as they remain a party in this struggle, we will refuse to meet them."

Jumblatt slams Assad, declaring he ‘listens to nobody’

Syria risks plunging deeper into violence and even civil war because President Bashar Assad “listens to nobody” inside or outside the country calling for change, Druze leader Walid Jumblatt said. A veteran politician whose ties with Damascus have ebbed and flowed over decades of shifting alliances, Jumblatt said he had no contact with the Syrian leader since meeting him in Damascus seven months ago in the early weeks of Syria’s uprising.

Tony: A thorn in the lion’s paw

The politics of the Druze in the Syrian revolution have witnessed serious developments over the last couple of months, as evidenced by the escalation in the rhetoric of Lebanese Druze leader Walid Jumblatt. Jumblatt made headlines two weeks ago when he called for a “radical change of regime” in Syria, and then again last week when he apologized for the delay in “joining the convoy of change.” This decisive stance on the side of the uprising carries important implications for the positioning of Syria’s Druze in the struggle against the Assad regime.

'Hezbollah has long-range surface-to-air missiles'

According to Western intelligence assessments, Hezbollah is believed to have taken advantage of the ongoing upheaval in Syria to obtain advanced weapons systems, such as additional long-range rockets as well as Russian-made air-defense systems.

Stratfor: A Hezbollah threat in Thailand?

On Jan. 12, Thai authorities arrested a man they say was a member of the Lebanon-based Shiite militant group Hezbollah who was plotting an attack in Bangkok. In uncovering the plot, Thai police cite cooperation with the United States and Israel going back to December 2011. Bangkok is indeed a target-rich environment with a history of terrorist attacks, but today Hezbollah and other militant and criminal groups rely on the city as more of a business hub than anything else. If Hezbollah or some other transnational militant group were to carry out an attack in the city, it would have to be for a compelling reason that outweighed the costs.

Bill Gertz: Saudi nuclear watch

U.S. intelligence agencies are closely watching Saudi Arabia for signs that the oil-rich kingdom will seek to develop nuclear weapons, amid tensions in the region centered on Iran’s nuclear program.

Radioactive material stolen from Egyptian nuclear power station

A safe containing radioactive material at the Dabaa nuclear power plant was seized while another safe containing radioactive material was broken open and part of its contents taken, the newspaper said.

Shin Bet arrests Islamic Jihad cell planning abductions

The Shin Bet, which released details of the investigation on Thursday, said that the Jenin-based cell was in direct contact with Islamic Jihad headquarters in Damascus, from which it received large sums of money to fund terrorist activity, as well as instruction regarding the type of attacks it should plan and perpetrate.

IDF exposes Syria-funded Islamic Jihad terror cell in West Bank

In a joint operation between the IDF and the Shin Bet, 10 Islamic Jihad militants were arrested near Jenin in recent months. According to the investigation, the military headquarters of the cell was communicating with the Islamic Jihad in Syria, who transferred the cell large sums of money to purchase weapons and to fund other operations.

Israeli hackers down Gaza, UAE bank websites

Israeli hackers operating under the name of 'IDF Team' brought down the website of the Arab Bank of Palestine on Thursday morning in retaliation for a web attack on Israel's Anti-Drug Authority website.

2012-01-18T16:23:00.003-06:00

Iran says in touch with big powers on new nuclear talks, EU denies it

A year after the last talks collapsed, tensions are rising with the United States and EU preparing to embargo Iran's lifeblood oil industry over its refusal to suspend a nuclear program that the West suspects is meant to develop atom bombs.

U.S. rejects Israeli assessment that Iran sanctions are ineffective

A senior U.S. official said Wednesday that Iran sanctions are effective, contrasting a recent statement by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that the current sanctions imposed on the Islamic Republic are insufficient to curb its nuclear program.

Nato urges Iran to keep Strait of Hormuz open

Nato pressed Iran to guarantee the security of energy supplies through the Strait of Hormuz but said the Western military alliance had no plans to intervene in the area – used for a third of the world's seaborne oil exports.

Michael Ledeen: Who’s really killing those ‘Nuclear scientists’ in Tehran?

Before getting into the details, let me caveat this whole thing: I don’t know who did it, and neither does anybody else writing about it. The Iranian regime, which usually claims to know everything about everything, has so far accused the Brits, the Americans, the MEK, and the Israelis.
However, I think that I do know this: If the Israelis (or the Americans, or the Brits) are actually capable of operating at will in the midst of the virtual military occupation in Tehran, we do not have to worry about the Iranian nukes, because if the Israelis, the Brits or the Americans can do that, they can do anything they want to.

Saudis deny stock exchange website infiltrated by Israeli hackers

Israeli hackers claimed they brought down the websites of both the Saudi Stock Exchange (Tadawul) and the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange (ADX) on Tuesday, in the latest episode of a continuing cyber war between hackers in Israel and other countries.

The gap between resistance and governance

We witnessed, with much agony, the outrageous attack upon free expression and peaceful assembly since March 2011. There are reports of hundreds of cases of torture and abuse. Several people died in detention and under torture in Gaza and the West Bank.

Khaled Abu Toameh: Human rights activist attacked twice in Gaza Strip

A prominent Palestinian human rights activist who criticized Palestinian armed groups for the use of "human shields" has been attacked twice since the beginning of the month, human rights groups in the Gaza Strip said Wednesday.

And: What Abdullah and Abbas hope to achieve from Amman talks

The Israeli-Palestinian negotiations, which resumed in Amman earlier this month, are mainly intended to help Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and Jordan's King Abdullah bolster their stature among their constituents and the international community.

January 17

2012-01-17T11:47:00.003-06:00

Iran tops agenda as Chinese chief visits gulf

But no one doubts that at the top of Wen’s agenda is Iran and how China can keep fueling its economy as Western powers step up sanctions and security threats to shipments grow. Analysts say the premier’s top priority is to keep relations with the Saudis smooth even as China bucks the sanctions that Riyadh backs by continuing to buy Iranian crude.

IDF official: Nuclear Iran will limit Israel's ability to protect its borders

Eshel made clear that Israel - widely reputed to have the region's only atomic arsenal - worries that Syria and Lebanon's Hezbollah militia as well as Palestinian Hamas Islamists who rule Gaza could one day find reassurance in an Iranian bomb.

'Nuclear Iran could deter wars in Gaza, Lebanon'

Eshel made clear that Israel worries that Syria and Hezbollah, as well as Hamas in the Gaza Strip, could one day find reassurance in an Iranian bomb.
"They will be more aggressive. They will dare to do things that right now they would not dare to do," he said in a briefing to foreign journalists and diplomats.

Iran at the epicenter

Winds of war are not yet blowing in the Persian Gulf. The sounds of war are not yet heard. But 'stunts' of war can be seen, and they carry deep significance since almost every U.S. political debate this election year revolves around the Iranian nuclear program.

Iran face-off testing Obama the Candidate

After fierce lobbying by the White House, which opposed this hardening in the sanctions that have been its main tool in pressuring Tehran, Congress agreed to modify the legislation to give Mr. Obama leeway to delay action if he concludes the clampdown would disrupt the oil market. He may also invoke a waiver to exempt any country from sanctions based on national security considerations.

War with Iran: A conflict Obama hopes to avoid may be imposed on him

Restraining Israel from unilateral action by escalating sanctions pressure has been a dominant theme of the Obama Administration’s Iran policy. And current and former Administration officials have said that President Obama would take military action if other methods failed to stop Iran building a nuclear weapon, although the U.S. intelligence assessment is that Iran has not yet decided, let alone begun, to build nuclear weapons despite steadily acquiring the means to do so. But neither Israel’s “bad cop” threats of military action or Washington’s “good cop” sanctions have changed Iran’s calculations, and the nuclear program is steadily expanding its capability. Last week, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed that Iran had begun enriching uranium to 20% at its hardened underground facility at Fordo near Qom, a plant built in secret and designed to put some of Iran’s capacity to manufacture nuclear fuel beyond the reach of air attack.

Iran rejects French charge it is sending arms to Syria

France's foreign ministry said on Monday that Iran has repeatedly violated a UN arms embargo by exporting weapons to Syria, which is roiled by internal strife.

Iran condemns interference in Syria, hails reform

"We are fundamentally against interfering in the affairs of other countries. We think it does not solve the problems but will only make them more complicated," Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast told a weekly news conference.

Is Al Qaeda actually involved in the Syria uprising?

Analysts say there is little proof – at least for now – that suggests that Al Qaeda, or its militant affiliates, are seeking to play an active role in the Syrian uprising. But the Assad regime has an ambiguous history with Sunni militants – serving at times as suspected patron and at other times as bitter enemy – and a descent into civil war could draw Al Qaeda and like-minded groups into the fray.

Jordan’s Islamists ‘preparing to govern’

In an ordinary IAF Shura Council session late Saturday, Islamist leaders discussed potential measures should the party, the political arm of the Muslim Brotherhood in Jordan, come to power in a government based on a parliamentary majority.

President Moussa, we presume

All three election phases are now complete, with less controversy, violence and irregularities than one might have feared. The results are not fully in, but it seems clear that Muslim Brotherhood and Salafist parties have won the bulk of the seats.
Having successfully held parliamentary elections under difficult conditions, there seems no reason to doubt that the military will be able to oversee similarly conclusive presidential elections. Indeed, it’s hard to imagine what, other than a full-fledged popular rebellion in the coming months, could successfully disrupt this.

Barry Rubin: Israel's options as Muslim Brotherhood gains power

The Muslim Brotherhood is overwhelmingly the most powerful organization in Egypt, the Gaza Strip, Tunisia, and very probably Libya, where its branches will control the governments. In Jordan, the brotherhood leads the opposition; in Syria, it plays an important role in the revolutionary upheaval.

Bedouin leaders threaten armed rebellion against Egyptian government

Egypt's military-led government, struggling to manage the transition to democracy, has a rising adversary: rebellious Bedouin tribes.
At a meeting last Friday in the south Sinai desert, Bedouin leaders accused the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces of treason against Egypt and warned that -- if necessary -- they might take up arms to achieve greater representation in the nation's new parliament.

Israel raises alarm over Sinai-Gaza cooperation

"Terror elements have entered the region, they're using the area as a platform for terror, Sinai has become a destination for Iran," he said, noting that in an attack last summer a missile was shot at a helicopter, which managed to dodge it.
. . . "The peace with Egypt has been and is valuable to both countries, but under the surface, the civilian grudge against Israel on the street has become a political asset," Netanyahu continued.

IDF preparing for major Gaza action within months

“Every officer will need to know where he needs to be with his troops and what his mission will be,” a senior officer explained. “Gaza has changed and the weaponry in Hamas’s and Islamic Jihad’s hands has significantly grown in quantity and quality.”
Hamas is believed to have a fighting force number over 20,000 armed men who are split into five brigades corresponding with different sections of the Gaza Strip. Each brigade is then split into a number of battalions. In addition, Hamas also has special teams for surveillance, anti-tank missiles, mortar and rocket fire and anti-aircraft shoulder-to-air missiles.

Knesset may leave int’l group for including Hamas

“It feels to me as though all order and logic of this world has been turned upside down,” Rivlin wrote, pointing out that Johnsson promised that Hamas would not be allowed to participate in the IPU, during a visit to Israel in December.

Hamas brutally assaults Shi'ite worshippers in Gaza

The assault was part of a broader crackdown on Shi'ite organizations, including charities, that has been sparked in part by Hamas' fear of growing Iranian influence in Gaza.

Israeli hackers bring down Saudi, UAE monetary sites

Israeli hackers said they brought down the official websites of Saudi Arabia's Monetary Agency and Abu Dhabi's Securities Exchange on Tuesday in retaliation for a denial of service attack on the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange the previous day.

Israeli hackers bring down Saudi, UAE stock exchange websites

The hackers wrote that the attack came in response to the “pathetic” hacking of Israeli sites on Monday. The hackers warned that if the attacks continue, they will “move to the next stage and paralyze websites for a period of two weeks to a month.”

Hackers disrupt Tel Aviv Stock Exchange and El Al

The distributed denial-of-service attacks, which also targeted three Israeli banks, were the latest salvo in a month-long offensive between Arab and Jewish hackers determined to give the Middle East conflict an online dimension.

Cyber attack against Israeli websites used local computers, security expert says

A recent string of cyber attacks against Israeli credit card companies, banks, and government websites was aided by thousands of Israeli computers operated by remote assailants, a top Israeli software security expert on Tuesday.

January 16

2012-01-16T12:43:00.002-06:00

Car bomb attacks kill 11 people around Iraq

Violence has surged across Iraq since the last American troops left the country. A string of bombings has left at least 150 people dead since the beginning of the year. Most of the attacks appear aimed at Iraq's Shiite majority, suggesting Sunni insurgents are seeking to undermine the Shiite-dominated government.

Gunmen storm Iraq compound, kill 7 police

The three-hour standoff between Shiite-dominated security forces and suspected Sunni insurgents in the Anbar province capital of Ramadi, 115km west of Baghdad, marked the first serious gun battle for Iraqi forces against insurgents without American backup since the US military completed its withdrawal last month.

E.U. commits in principle to Iran oil embargo

European governments have decided in principle to impose an oil embargo on Iran but plan to delay its implementation for six months or more so that vulnerable countries can arrange for alternate supplies, according to European diplomats.

Iran warns Gulf oil states as sanctions mount

If Arab neighbours compensate for a looming EU ban on Iranian imports, "we would not consider these actions to be friendly," Iran's representative to OPEC, Mohammad Ali Khatibi, was quoted as saying by the Sharq newspaper on Sunday.
"They will be held responsible for what happens" in that case, he said, adding ominously: "One cannot predict the consequences."

Sunday Times: Mossad agents behind Iran scientist assassination

According to the report, the assassination of Mostafa Ahmadi-Roshan was similar to that seen in “espionage films” - planned over a period of many months, and including extensive surveillance and intelligence gathering. The Sunday Times quoted an unnamed Israeli sources who claimed that the killing was a precursor to a military strike, which would make rebuilding nuclear facilities more difficult for Iran, should they be bombed.

'Quds Force would aid Syria in foreign intervention'

Iran would provide aid to Syria if it came under attack by external forces, an Iranian Revolutionary Guards official told pan-Arab Al Arabiya news channel Monday, after the US accused the Guards' Quds Force of providing weapons to the embattled regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad in order to suppress protests.

Eleven more killed in Syria despite Arab monitors

Eleven people were killed in Syria on Monday in a 10-month-old struggle between President Bashar al-Assad and his foes that a peace plan monitored by Arab observers has failed to quench.

Fear of civil war mounts in Syria as crisis deepens

The failure of an Arab League mission to stanch violence in Syria, an international community with little leverage and a government as defiant as its opposition is in disarray have left Syria descending into a protracted, chaotic and perhaps unnegotiable conflict.

Syrian echoes of Saddam

Like Saddam Hussein before him, Bashar al-Assad twists and turns as foreign pressure on his murderous regime mounts. Its latest ploy is to offer an amnesty for what it calls “crimes” committed during the 10-month uprising. The American State Department has rightly advised Syrians against taking up the offer. On this score, their president is wholly untrustworthy. His true face is not magnanimous; rather, it is the one shown during a rare public speech last week in which he said he would crush his opponents, branded as “terrorists”, with an “iron fist”.

Hezbollah 'calls off attacks'

A Middle Eastern terrorist group had cancelled its plan to attack targets in Thailand after one of its members was arrested in Bangkok and the authorities learned about the plot, the national police chief quoted the suspect as saying yesterday.

Lebanese man charged with possessing explosive materials after police raid Bangkok warehouse

A foreign suspect with alleged links to Hezbollah militants led Thai police Monday to a warehouse filled with materials commonly used to make bombs, as Thailand and the U.S. disagreed over whether Bangkok was the target of a terror plot.

Bangkok threat: Terrorist's Swedish connection

An examination of the passport, which was obtained by Ynet, revealed that Atris was born in southern Lebanon and married a Swedish woman in 1996. The marriage made him eligible for a Swedish passport, which he allegedly exploited for the benefit of Hezbollah's terrorism apparatus.

Make up your mind, Hassan

Not only is Nasrallah’s tune getting very tired, it is shot through with hypocrisy. Nasrallah and his party have chosen to abandon the state, and yet they call upon its good offices when they need them. He calls for resistance and yet urges the Syrian opposition to put down their weapons and enter into dialogue. Hezbollah is caught in an ideological dilemma and must resort to increasingly hollow rhetoric.

Rise of Islamist movements casts shadow over Egypt

The Muslim Brotherhood did not initiate the current upheavals in the Middle East, but the Islamist parties in Egypt, as in Tunisia and Libya, have been the chief beneficiaries of the collapse of longstanding authoritarian repressive regimes across North Africa.

Parties pick 1st Islamist Egypt parliament speaker

The Muslim Brotherhood, the big winner in the first election since the ousting of President Hosni Mubarak last February, said Monday it has joined several other parties in backing Saad el-Katatni. He's the secretary-general of the Brotherhood's own party.

The Egyptian army’s invisible hand

Mahmoud Yussif runs a mobile phone shop here in the Egyptian capital. He fields customers in rapid-fire succession explaining his products thoroughly, answering questions quickly and efficiently, and locating in seconds a cellphone or anything else in his small but crowded shop.

How Israel’s Gaza pullout radicalized Sinai

Anyone who still thinks more Israel territorial withdrawals are a good idea should carefully study Ehud Yaari’s chilling new report for The Washington Institute on “Sinai: A New Front.” To anyone who has been following the situation, Yaari’s bottom line – that Sinai-based terrorism “could break a fragile bilateral peace [with Egypt] that is already challenged by growing post-Mubarak demands to abrogate, review, or amend the treaty” – isn’t new; I’ve been warning of this for months. Where the veteran Israeli journalist and Arabist makes a real contribution is his analysis of how Israel’s 2005 pullout from Gaza contributed to Sinai’s radicalization. And while he doesn’t say so, the implication of his research is obvious: An Israeli pullout from the West Bank could similarly radicalize and destabilize Jordan.

Barry Rubin: The three rules of Western discourse and why the media must always blame Israel

It is truly astonishing how, it often seems, how Western media coverage must blame Israel for everything that “goes wrong” in the Middle East, including murderous hostility to Israel.
Sentences often seem carefully formulated to push this claim and exclude any possibility of balance, much less accuracy. And no matter what the subject, it seems, this message must be snuck in.

More about “Foreign Policy’s” Israel slurs

Foreign Policy has produced a slander so outrageous that Israel broke with its strict policy of never confirming or denying covert operations to issue a flat denial – and surprisingly, given Israel’s notoriously poor public relations, it’s a convincing one. On Friday, the magazine published an article by Mark Perry, a military and intelligence analyst who once served as an advisor to Yasser Arafat, that accused Mossad agents of posing as CIA agents to recruit Pakistani terrorists to commit sabotage and assassinations inside Iran. The alleged operation infuriated two successive presidents, George W. Bush and Barack Obama, Perry wrote, because it endangered American lives, undermined America’s relationship with Pakistan and painted America as engaged in terrorist activity. Additionally, Perry said, it convinced many senior American officials that Israel was a liability rather than a strategic asset.

UK: Time running out for Mideast two-state solution

Time is running out for a "two-state solution" to the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians, British Prime Minister David Cameron said on Monday, after a visit by Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas.

Britain's Deputy Prime Minister: Israeli settlement construction is 'vandalism'

British Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg said on Monday that Israeli settlement construction is "vandalism." Speaking at a press conference with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, Clegg went on to accuse Israel of undermining attempts to broker a Middle East peace deal by continued settlement construction.

Israel doing 'immense damage' to peace process Nick Clegg says

"Once you've placed physical facts on the ground that make it impossible to deliver something that everyone has for years agreed is the ultimate destination ... it is an act of deliberate vandalism to the basic premise on which negotiations have taken place for years and years and years," Mr Clegg told a press conference in London.

IDF arrests two Palestinians carrying pipe bombs, ammunition near Jenin/p>

The two Palestinians, aged 20, were arrested at the Salem checkpoint near the Palestinian city of Jenin, where four Palestinians were also arrested last week for carrying makeshift bombs.

January 15

2012-01-15T11:56:00.002-06:00

Hague: Iran crisis threatens 'entire Middle East'

"It is an intensifying problem that we have over their nuclear programme. And so there is a risk that this will become a greater crisis as 2012 goes on."

William Hague's greatest worries are Iran and Middle East

Mr Hague will be hosting a discussion on the Arab Spring with a series of ambassadors in Brazil, as part of British attempts to increase pressure on Syrian President Bashar Assad. The UN estimates that 5,000 people have been killed since the uprising in Syria began in March, and the conflict appears to have become a bloody stalemate. Some have called for the implementation of a no-fly zone, such as the one used to great effect in Libya. But Mr Hague said it was not something Britain was actively pursuing - while being careful to not completely rule it out.

Max Boot: Marines mess up mission in Afghanistan

The Taliban’s moral standing to be complaining about the desecration of corpses is, to put it mildly, rather limited. Recall, after all, the fate suffered by former Afghan ruler Najibullah at the hands of the Taliban in 1996. First he was castrated, then dragged through the streets by a car before his corpse was finally left dangling from a lamppost. Yet there is no question that U.S. troops are held to a higher standard and the decision by four Marines to urinate on the corpses of Taliban fighters–and then videotape it!–could do harm to the American mission in Afghanistan.

Iraq suicide bomber kills 53 at pilgrimage climax

The attack on devotees on the outskirts of the port city of Basra, which left 137 wounded, came with Iraq mired in a political row pitting the Shiite-led government against the main Sunni-backed bloc and stoked sectarian tensions less than a month after US forces completed their pullout.

Tehran confirms receipt of US letter on Hormuz

"America's message over the Strait of Hormuz reached us through three channels. It was given to our UN representative, the Swiss ambassador conveyed it to the Foreign Ministry and also Iraqi President Jalal Talabani gave the message to Iran," Mehmanparast said, according to the ISNA news agency.

Ya'alon dismayed with US response to Iran threat

While Washington has been talking tougher about Iran's nuclear work and threat to block oil export routes out of the Gulf if hit with harsher sanctions, new US measures adopted on December 31 gave President Barak Obama leeway on the scope of penalties on the Iranian central bank and oil exports.

Western intelligence sources tell Time Magazine Israel's Mossad targeted Iranian scientist

A magnetic bomb was attached to the door of 32-year-old Mostafa Ahmadi-Roshan's car during the Wednesday morning rush-hour in Tehran. His driver was also killed. Sources tell the magazine Israel was behind three previous assassinations of scientists.

Iran’s dangerous game

We’re at a dangerous moment right now. The Iranians need to understand in the most precise manner possible what the consequences of their various attempts at saber-rattling will be. They need to understand just exactly what sort of concessions they will have to make to get negotiations started. As David Ignatius writes, there is a need for a direct back-channel between the US and Iran. For our part, we need to be able to directly reassure the Iranians that we had nothing to do with the assassination of the Iranian nuclear scientist–and that our bright line in the current confrontation is violence against Iranian citizens. (One wonders about the content of yesterday’s phone call between President Obama and Bibi Netanyahu.)

Saudi Arabia: Readiness to up oil output is not linked to Iran sanctions

The comments come as Iran's OPEC governor was quoted Sunday warning Arab oil producers against trying to compensate for any potential shortfall in his country's crude exports.

Saudi, Chinese oil giants ink joint refinery deal

The announcement comes as Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao headed to the Middle East on a trip to key oil-producing nations -- with Saudi Arabia as his first stop -- as rising tensions over Iran's nuclear programme spark fears of major oil supply disruptions.

Syria: President Bashar al-Assad decrees amnesty

"President Assad issued a decree stipulating a general amnesty for crimes committed during the events between March 15, 2011 and January 15, 2012," SANA reported, without elaborating.

Ban urges Syria's Assad: Stop killing your people

"Today, I say again to President Assad of Syria: Stop the violence. Stop killing your people. The path of repression is a dead end," Ban told a conference in Lebanon on political reform.

War in Syria may now be inevitable

According to a source in the U.S. government, one week ago, the Arab League Secretary-General, Nabil al-Arabi, told the Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, Jeffrey Feltman, that the Assad regime was breaking the terms of the Arab League initiative. If true, this quiet admission of failure preceded the high-profile resignation of Algerian League delegate Anwar Malek, who told Al Jazeera that his team had been unable to prevent the Assad regime’s “multiple crimes against humanity” and that the mission itself was a “farce”. More delegates are now said to be planning to quit.

Arab League observers to Syria tell of regime's death threats

Anwar Malek, who decided to leave the country week after complaining of "overwhelming intimidation", said he had watched men, women and children being slaughtered as the popular uprising against President Bashar al-Assad intensified.
But it was fears for his own safety which eventually prompted 40-year-old Mr Malek to "find my own way out of the country so I could tell people exactly what was going on".

ElBaradei drops presidential bid

The ex-head of the United Nations nuclear watchdog pulled out of the race on Saturday, accusing the country’s interim military rulers of failing to create the conditions for a free and fair contest.

Explosion in Gaza home of Palestinian faction leader kills one

The PRC confirmed the man killed was a member of the Popular Resistance Committees and that he was preparing an attack on Israelis when the blast occurred. Zuhair Qaissi himself was not hurt in the explosion.

Palestinians: It's up to Israel to get peace talks going

"It is up to Israel to decide if negotiations will happen or not. It's very easy. They just have to fulfil their international obligations ... including a full settlement freeze. The ball is on their side, not ours," Xavier Abu Eid, a senior advisor to chief Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat, told dpa Sunday.

Khaled Abu Toameh: Palestinians consider ending peace talks, turning to UN

The Palestinians are considering ending the talks with Israel in Jordan and searching for other alternatives, such as asking the UN to demand an end to construction in the settlements, the London-based Al-Hayat newspaper reported Sunday.

UN chief calls for end to 'occupation', settlements

UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon on Sunday slammed Israeli settlements as illegal and called for an end to the "occupation," AFP reported.
Speaking at a conference on democracy in the Arab world in Beirut, Ban said that "the Israeli occupation of Arab and Palestinian territories" and "violence against civilians" must end.

Israel, US cancel missile defense drill

Initially scheduled for April and called "Austere Challenge," the drill was supposed to see the deployment of thousands of US troops and various sophisticated US military equipment in Israel.

January 13

2012-01-13T12:42:00.004-06:00

U.S. sends top Iranian leader a warning on Strait threat

The officials declined to describe the unusual contact between the two governments, and whether there had been an Iranian reply. Senior Obama administration officials have said publicly that Iran would cross a “red line” if it made good on recent threats to close the strait, a strategically crucial waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman, where 16 million barrels of oil — about a fifth of the world’s daily oil trade — flow through every day.

U.S. boosts its military presence in Persian Gulf

Officials said Thursday that the deployments are not meant to suggest a buildup to war, but rather are intended as a quick-reaction and contingency force in case a military crisis erupts in the standoff with Tehran over its suspected nuclear weapons program.

The 20 percent solution

On Monday, Jan. 9, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed that Iran had begun producing 20 percent enriched uranium at Fordow, a fuel enrichment plant buried deep underground near the holy city of Qom. On the surface, there is little new here: Since February 2010, Iran has been producing 20 percent enriched uranium at Natanz, another once-secret site located about 3 ½ hours from Tehran.

U.S.-Israel split on Iran assassinations?

Given that this administration has fully embraced the doctrine of targeted killings of terrorists and regards drone strikes against individuals and groups that Washington deems bad guys, its scruples about knocking off people involved in a project that would give the ayatollahs the ability to pull off a second Holocaust seems curious. The reasons U.S. officials have given for their opposition to the assassinations also fall flat.

An informal addition to the laws of physics – don’t work for Iran

Recent history has mixed lessons. In 1943 and 1944 the RAF and USAAF carried out repeat strikes on the German V-2 rocket launch site at Peenemünde, where the hydrogen peroxide fuel was also produced. They were not unduly concerned whether scientists and engineers were killed too, nor foreign slave labourers, provided the V-2s ceased raining down on London.

Israel raises security after Iran scientist killed

Even without the calls for retaliation by the Iranians, the Israeli defense establishment traditionally goes on high alert this time of year ahead of the anniversary of the assassination of Imad Mughniyeh, the commander of Hezbollah who was killed in a car bombing in Damascus in February 2008. Hezbollah has accused Israel of perpetrating the assassination.

Taliban openly rejects goals of peace talks

The problem is that the Taliban has shown no indication that it wants to achieve any of the goals Secretary Clinton has outlined.

US 'agrees in principle' to swap Taliban fighters for Bowe Bergdahl

The White House has "agreed in principle" to exchanging senior Taliban officials being held in Guantánamo Bay for Bowe Bergdahl, an American soldier held captive since 2009, it was reported last night.

Iraq official calls for PM's removal

Iraq's deputy premier is calling for Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki to step down and warning that the country's festering political crisis risks sparking a wider sectarian regional conflict.

Syria protests erupt, Arab League fears civil war

Protests against President Bashar Al Assad erupted in several Syrian cities on Friday, activists said, and the Arab League chief said he feared the bloody unrest could degenerate into a civil war with ill effects for the wider region.

Syrians in Jordan defy rainy weather, protest against Assad regime

Around 100 Syrians in Amman challenged the cold weather and held a protest outside their country’s embassy here to express solidarity with thousands of people who were marching in their homeland calling for the fall of President Bashar Assad’s regime.

'Russian-operated arms ship reaches Syria'

A Russian-operated ship with "a dangerous cargo" has reached conflict-torn Syria, a source at the vessel's St. Petersburg-based firm said on Friday, after being temporarily halted during a refueling stop in Cyprus.

Look no further

After three weeks on the job, and with the daily death toll just as high as before their arrival, Arab League observers in Syria must surely be wondering what they are doing there. It is a fair question.

Tony: Assad finds his margin to maneuver

One of the more curious things about Bashar al-Assad’s latest rambling speech on Tuesday was his aggressive and typically condescending attack against his Gulf Arab foes. Coming 10 days before the Arab League monitoring mission is due to file its report, the timing of the Syrian dictator’s tirade was noteworthy. It seems that Assad, recognizing the divisions within the League’s ranks, estimated that the Arab body is paralyzed to move against him. With the international community equally immobilized, Assad is convinced he has a margin to maneuver.

Brotherhood claim 46 pct of Egypt parliament

The Muslim Brotherhood will control close to half the seats in the first
Egyptian parliament elected since an uprising swept Hosni Mubarak from power last year, according to a projection posted by the group on Friday.

The anniversary of the Egyptian revolution

Nearly a year to the day since the start of the revolution in Egypt, the situation is still chaotic and the end is far from being in sight. The army, which played an important role in the toppling of Hosni Mubarak and was the only uniting force during the dramatic events of January and February 2011, failed dismally to launch the necessary dialogue with all political forces.

MEMRI: Antisemitic and Anti-Israel articles on Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood website

The website of the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) in Egypt, Ikhwanonline.com, contains articles with antisemitic motifs, including Holocaust denial and descriptions of the "Jewish character" as covetous, exploitative, and a source of evil in human society. While articles of this tenor have been posted on the site in the past, their posting has recently taken on greater importance in light of the group's increasing strength following the ouster of the Mubarak regime, as reflected by the results of the recent parliamentary elections.

Barry Rubin: If tourists can wear bikinis but local women must wear chadors does that prove the Muslim Brotherhood is moderate?

While Brotherhood leaders seem to disagree on this issue, I can see the outlines of a “deal” that will prove to Westerners that the Brotherhood is going to be “moderate” in power, nothing to worry about, and therefore an organization that should be spoken of sympathetically. Ready to hear the “deal?” Here it is:

Cold winds blowing from the North

They are spotted along the border every few kilometers, sometimes in groups and sometimes on their own. The Israeli soldiers are under clear orders – keep a distance and do not engage with them.
Nevertheless, there is concern as to why Syria has beefed up the amount of troops stationed along its border with Israel in the Golan Heights, particularly now, when every soldier is needed to protect embattled President Bashar Assad.

Palestinians to press UN bid despite Quartet talks push

"We will continue our (statehood) efforts in the Security Council," he told a meeting of his Fatah movement on Thursday, adding that he also planned to petition the UN's Human Rights Council in Geneva over Israel's continued occupation of Palestinian territory.

Critical EU paper draws fire from Israeli officials

Israeli diplomatic sources on Thursday slammed another EU internal report highly critical of Israeli policies, saying it will make the Europeans “feel good about themselves” but have no affect on the ground.
The sources also criticized the authors of the report for not turning to Jerusalem for any input.

Despite rain, water crisis persists

The Kinneret, he stresses, is only one of three main water sources – the other two are the mountain and the coastal aquifers. In total, the country is short about 2 billion cubic meters of water, an amount equivalent to the consumption of all the households in Israel for three years.

2012-01-12T12:45:00.002-06:00

War games

Such coverage as the new defense thinking did receive was devoted mostly to money. There will be less of it for the Pentagon. Though, as usual in Washington, what is being called a “cut,” is actually a spending increase that is smaller than had been planned. Still, while we will spend more money, we will be reducing our forces. Quite severely, in the case of the Marines and Army which will see personnel shrink by some 80,000.
The Navy and Air Force will, then, be expected to do the heavy lifting under the new strategic outlook which sees less nation-building (no more Iraqs or Afghanistans) in our future and more tensions in the Pacific which can only mean with China.

Former inspector: Iran 'one year from' bomb material

Having switched production of higher-grade enriched uranium to a new, underground site, Iran is now just a year or so away from having enough such material for a nuclear bomb, a former head of UN nuclear inspections said.

Iran called on to retaliate against Israel over killing of nuclear expert

Provocative hints from Israel reinforced the perception that the killing was part of an organised and clandestine campaign to set back Iran's nuclear ambitions, which the US and its allies suspect are aimed at producing weapons. Iran says the program is for peaceful purposes only.
A column in the Kayhan newspaper by chief editor Hossein Shariatmadari asked why Iran did not retaliate. "Assassinations of Israeli military and officials are easily possible," he wrote.

Adversaries of Iran said to be stepping up covert actions

The campaign, which experts believe is being carried out mainly by Israel, apparently claimed its latest victim on Wednesday when a bomb killed a 32-year-old nuclear scientist in Tehran’s morning rush hour.
. . . The assassination drew an unusually strong condemnation from the White House and the State Department, which disavowed any American complicity. The statements by the United States appeared to reflect serious concern about the growing number of lethal attacks, which some experts believe could backfire by undercutting future negotiations and prompting Iran to redouble what the West suspects is a quest for a nuclear capacity.

Assassins of nuclear scientists are sending a double message to Iran

A nuclear weapon requires a sufficient quantity and quality of uranium or plutonium. It also requires enrichment facilities for the material and the means to deliver it to its target (bombs and aircraft, warheads and missiles, and on a tactical level, shells and landmines.) It also needs scientists, engineers and operators. It needs people to push the button, and it needs people to build whatever goes flying when that button, or switch, is triggered.

A covert campaign is the only way to stop Iran's nuclear ambitions

Covert action creates the time and space for pressure to build, while reducing the need for military action. Ultimately, covert action should be aimed at bringing enough pressure to bear on Iran's leaders so that they understand they will never reach their goal of being a nuclear power. It is only at that point diplomacy can have any hope of success.

Analysis: Delaying tactics

Like the three scientists before him, the assassination of nuclear specialist Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan on Wednesday in Tehran represented just another day in the ongoing shadow war between Iran and the Western world.

Analysis: Israel uses risky "hits" in deadly shadow war

If Mossad assassins were behind the killing of an Iranian nuclear scientist Wednesday, it would be the latest chapter in a long history of Israeli covert action against foes best not confronted with full force.

Victor Davis Hanson: Will Iran really start a war?

For much of last December, Iran seemed schizophrenic. As the European Union and the United States finally seemed to agree on implementing tough new sanctions against the theocracy, Tehran threatened to shut down the Strait of Hormuz and thereby choke off 40 percent of the world’s petroleum leaving the Persian Gulf. At times, the mullahs bragged of new centrifuges coming on line; at other moments, they issued warnings to the American navy to pull one of its huge aircraft carriers out of the region—or face the consequences.

Turkey: Not bound by US sanctions against Iran

Turkey, which imports oil and gas from Iran, says it is only bound by U.N. sanctions against its eastern neighbor, despite the U.S. campaign to sanction Iran further over its nuclear program.

Syria: Nato 'plans military intervention', Russia claims

"We are getting information that Nato members and some Persian Gulf States, operating according to the Libya scenario, intend to move from indirect intervention in Syrian affairs to direct military intervention," Nikolai Patrushev, the head of the Kremlin security body said in an interview published in Russia's Kommersant newspaper on Thursday.

Head of Arab mission to Syria denies disarray

The head of Arab League monitors in Syria dismissed as untrue on Thursday the comments of an Algerian observer who quit in disgust over continued violence in the country and slammed the mission as a "farce".

Smiling Assad vilifies ‘conspirators’

Syrian President Bashar Assad vowed Wednesday to vanquish “foreign conspirators” plotting to end his rule, and a Frenchman became the first foreign journalist to be killed in the 10 months of unrest that has cost thousands of lives in Syria.

Delusional waffle

Delusional or supremely manipulative? Take you pick. Few of the sentiments in Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s 15,000-word speech delivered on Tuesday to his supporters at the Damascus University, capture so perfectly the nonsense of Assad’s rambling reasons for why his regime has chosen the path of genocide rather than wholesale political reform.

The Muslim Brotherhood's radical plan for Egypt

When the third and final round of Egypt's parliamentary elections concludes tomorrow, the Muslim Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party (FJP) is widely expected to cement its dominance of the next legislature. Although the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces still holds executive power, the FJP's political victory promises radical changes for Egypt, including a theocratic domestic program and a confrontational foreign policy. The United States should have no illusions about the party's aims or ability to moderate. As long as the FJP is in power, Washington should condition future bilateral relations on its behavior regarding key U.S. interests, including the treatment of religious minorities, Egypt's peace treaty with Israel, and counterterrorism.

Egypt’s new rulers sacrifice revenue on the altar of their Anti-Israel vendetta

Scarcely a day goes by without some pundit or diplomat proclaiming that we shouldn’t worry about Islamists’ electoral victories in places like Egypt and Tunisia, because they will soon be moderated by the demands of governance – primarily, the need for economic development to improve their voters’ lives. Unfortunately, Egypt’s new rulers don’t seem to have gotten the message: This week, they canceled an annual trip by Israeli pilgrims to the grave of a Jewish sage.

Hamas leader to visit Iran, in second foreign trip since 2007

Yusef Rizka says the militant group's Ismail Haniyeh will embark on his second international trip outside the Gaza Strip. He returned this week from a tour of Egypt, Sudan, Turkey and Tunisia.

EU report: Israel policy in West Bank endangers two-state solution

The European Union will direct its activities towards supporting the West Bank’s Palestinian population, a report by the European Heads of Mission in Jerusalem and Ramallah said on Thursday, over what the survey said was Israeli efforts to muscle out Palestinians from Area C.

Europe to pursue Area C projects

The European Union has decided to pursue a series of steps which may undermine Israel's control of Area C in the West Bank, an official EU document obtained by Ynet on Thursday suggests.

January 11

2012-01-11T11:46:00.005-06:00

The war with Iran has already begun

The assassination of yet another Iranian nuclear scientist – the fourth in two years – is just one example of how this war is being waged. There is little doubt that the carefully executed plot to kill Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan, who worked at Iran's controversial Natanz uranium enrichment plant, was the work of a Western intelligence agency – most likely Israel's Mossad intelligence service.

Iranian nuclear scientist latest victim of covert sabotage efforts

Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan, a chemist who worked in the uranium enrichment plant in Natanz, was killed when an assassin riding a motorcycle attached an explosive device to his Peugeot 405.

Iranian nuclear scientists attacked

An Iranian nuclear scientist has been killed in the latest in a series of mysterious attacks on scientists in the country since 2009. Mostafa Ahmadi-Roshan, a 32-year-old graduate of chemical engineering was killed by a bomb placed on his car by a motorcyclist in Tehran. Another passenger died in hospital and a pedestrian was also injured. Iran said the victim was a nuclear scientist who supervised a department at Natanz Uranium Enrichment Facility. Iran blamed Israel and the United States for the attack.

Analysis: Russia’s veiled threat toward Iran

In a rare announcement Tuesday, the Russian Foreign Ministry expressed ‘regret’ over Iran's nuclear development program. This announcement serves, in Russian diplomatic language, as a severe warning to the Iranian leadership far beyond the simple "regret and concern" it stated over the commencement of uranium enrichment at an underground site at Fordo, near the Shi'ite Muslim holy city of Qom.

IDF official: Iran, Hezbollah stepping up efforts to save Assad regime in Syria

"They are providing [Assad] with knowledge, weapons and other means and recently with active involvement," Kochavi said.
Kochavi also said that the face of the Middle East is changing in such a way that it is no longer recognizable.

Syria: French TV reporter killed in Homs

Gilles Jacquier was on a rare Western reporting trip authorised by Syria's embattled government amid a 10-month uprising against the regime of President Bashar Assad. Another France-2 reporter was uninjured.

UN: Syria killing increased since monitors' arrival

"The under-secretary-general noted that in the days since the Arab League monitoring mission has been on the ground, in fact an estimated 400 additional people have been killed, an average of 40 a day, a rate much higher than was the case even before their deployment," Rice told reporters.

Aoun praises Assad’s “reformist” measures

In a possible reference to the West, Aoun said that there are “attempts to create an Arab-Arab conflict instead of the Arab-Israeli conflict… in order to divide Arab states by inciting sectarianism.”
. . . Lebanon's political scene is split between supporters of Assad’s regime, led by Hezbollah, and the March 14 pro-Western camp.

Don’t bet on Assad’s imminent fall

However, that’s not the only element of this story that I’m skeptical about. Though Israeli officials as well as leaders in the Arab world and Europe have all spoken as if Bashar Assad’s fall is only a matter of time, they may be assuming too much. Since Assad has continued to not only state his willingness to use force to repress dissent in his country but to murder his critics by the thousands in the last year, the certitude that is being expressed about his demise may be a bit premature. Dictatorships only fall when dictators lose their taste for blood. And so far, Assad has shown no signs of such a human weakness.

Lee Smith: A Hezbollah crack-up?

Hassan Nasrallah, secretary general of Hezbollah, wants out. Things have gotten so tense for Hezbollah, says Lokman Slim, an independent Lebanese Shiite activist, that according to well-sourced accounts of a meeting two weeks ago, Nasrallah “complained he no longer wanted the job.”

'US to hold highest-level talks with Brotherhood yet'

On Wednesday a spokesman for the Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party told the AFP news agency that US Deputy Secretary of State William Burns would meet with leaders of the party at its new headquarters in Cairo. He said the encounter would be "the highest-level meeting with any official from the United States."

Egypt tells Israel: Pilgrimage to tomb of Jewish holy man 'impossible' this year

Egypt's Foreign Ministry said Wednesday it had told Israel that it would not be "appropriate" for Israeli pilgrims to make an annual visit to the tomb of a 19th-century Jewish holy man in the Nile Delta, as activists mobilized to block the pilgrimage route.

'This is just the beginning,' warns Israeli hacker

He's only 17-years-old, but the Israeli hacker known as '0xOmer' has already made headlines after publishing hundreds of Saudi credit card numbers, in retaliation against Arab hackers, claiming to be Saudis, who published tens of thousands of Israeli credit card details on the internet last week.

'Haniyeh, Abbas to meet over wavering unity deal'

Ashkar stressed that the meetings would work to sort out frosty relations between the two factions that were worsened last week when Hamas refused entry to a Fatah delegation at the Erez Border Crossing near Beit Hanoun in the Gaza Strip.

Israel: PA reviving rejected ideas in new talks

“Up until now – and we hope this changes – what the Palestinians have put on the table has not been as serious as it could have been,” one source said, commenting on the second round of direct Jordanian- sponsored Israeli- Palestinian talks held in Amman on Monday.

January 10

2012-01-10T11:45:00.004-06:00

The Historian, the Diplomat, and the Spy

At the table were Bernard Lewis, for my money the greatest living historian of the Middle East; Uri Lubrani, Israel’s envoy to Iran prior to the fall of the Shah and an advisor to leaders of the Jewish state ever since; and Meir Dagan, a retired paratrooper, commando, and general who was recruited in 2002 by then-prime minister Ariel Sharon to rebuild the Mossad as an intelligence agency “with a knife in its teeth.” (Dagan stepped down from that post in 2010 and has been increasingly outspoken ever since.) A small group of young American national-security professionals — from the Hill, the Defense Department, Homeland Security, even the D.C. police department — broke pita with them. None of the three minimizes how dire will be the consequences should Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s finger come to rest on a nuclear trigger. The Iranian president subscribes to an extremist school of Shia theology that, General Dagan explained, looks forward to an apocalyptic war that would “hasten the arrival of the Mahdi,” mankind’s ultimate savior. But he thinks Ahmadinejad and his associates are not as close as many analysts believe to acquiring a nuclear capability. “Two years to have such a weapon, in my estimation,” he said.

Turkey and Iran carve up a ruptured Arab world

Moreover, Western observers have missed the primary thread of events – namely, the ongoing asymmetric Turkish-Iranian soft partition of the Arab republics. Concomitantly, the American position as regional hegemony is vanishing. Today, only the Arab monarchies and Israel continue to look to the US as their primary patron.
To investigate how these changing dynamics are seen by actors within the region, Mr. Pack spent his Christmas holidays in Erbil, the capital of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) of Iraq.

Three car bombs kill 17 in Iraqi capital

The leaders of Iraq’s rival sects have been locked in a standoff since last month, when authorities in the Shiite-dominated government called for Sunni Vice President Tariq Al Hashemi’s arrest on terrorism charges just as the last American troops were withdrawing from the country.

Shiites brave crisis, bombs for Iraq pilgrimage

Tens of thousands of Shi'ite Muslims are pouring into Iraq's holy city of Kerbala, despite having become the main targets of a bombing campaign that followed the withdrawal of U.S. troops last month.

Ahmadinejad and Chavez taunt US

"One of the targets that Yankee imperialism has in its sights is Iran, which is why we are showing our solidarity," Chavez said during a joint press conference. "That hill will open up and a big atomic bomb will come out," he said of a hill next to his Miraflores Palace.

Russia 'regrets' news of Iran nuclear activity in Qom facility

"Moscow has met reports on the start of uranium enrichment at an Iranian plant near Qom with regret and concern," the agency quoted a Foreign Ministry official as saying.

UN nuclear inspectors to visit Iran 'soon,' IAEA official says

Such a trip would come at a time of escalating tension over Iran's nuclear ambitions with European nations preparing for a embargo on Iranian oil and Tehran threatening to retaliate by blocking Gulf oil shipping lanes vital to the global economy.

Turkey holds Syria-bound Iranian 'military cargo'

"The four trucks were confiscated by customs. They are alleged to be carrying military equipment," Governor Yusuf Odabas said. He said experts were being sent from Ankara to examine the cargo.

Syria: Assad hits out at 'terrorists' in speech

Syria's embattled President Bashar al-Assad has taken a confrontational stance in a televised speech, vowing to strike "terrorists with an iron fist" and offering no hint of compromise with forces ranged against him.

Best-laid plans…

But it is what keeps happening on the ground that shatters all hope for the Syrian activists, while the international community becomes more and more skeptical. Some activists say the monitors who visit Syrian towns are being flagrantly misled by the regime’s security forces and that rarely can protesters reach the observers to give them information. Further, activists allege that the regime’s forces change street signs to manipulate the observers into thinking they are in a different place.

Clerics critical of Hezbollah face conspiracy charges

Those close to the Shia clerics say these accusations are unfounded, however, and say that the men are being targeted because they represent a challenge to Hezbollah’s authority, and the party’s dominance in the Shia community. Al Balad journalist, Ali al-Amin, believes that it “is a message directed toward clerics that they too can be accused of treason if they were to defy Hezbollah, or take clear and strong position against the party.” He also told NOW Lebanon that this is the first time clerics have been accused of conspiring with Israel.

Political movements and parties to protest Abu Hasira Festival

Permission for Israelis to visit Abu Hasira’s tomb has angered some in Egypt, especially because it is not included in the list of celebrations authorized to be held in Egypt. The Supreme Administrative Court upheld a 2001 lower court decision to abolish the annual event.

Egyptian Christian faces trial for insulting Islam

The case dates back to June, when Naguib Sawiris posted a cartoon showing a bearded Mickey Mouse and veiled Minnie. He made a public apology after Islamists complained, but his action set off a boycott of his telecom company and other outlets. He said it was supposed to be a joke and apologized, but lawyer Mamdouh Ismail filed a formal complaint against him.

Jordan’s Islamists regain key asset

Jordan’s Muslim Brotherhood movement has not climbed the ladder to political power as its counterparts have in Egypt and Tunisia, but a recent government decision has paved the way for it to gain money and boost influence with voters as Jordan moves toward elections.

Wishful thinking: Hamas’s “New direction”

Let’s for a moment ignore all the evidence to the contrary and assume Hamas really did agree to abandon terror for unarmed “popular struggle.” What would that mean for Israel? About 500 rockets a year fired at its civilian population. How do I know? Because Hamas, unwilling to risk another Israeli offensive, hasn’t personally fired rockets at Israel since the last offensive ended three years ago. Instead, it has allowed smaller groups to fire 1,571 rockets from Hamas-controlled Gaza while disclaiming responsibility – a tactic it would undoubtedly continue. In short, Hamas’s “new direction” wouldn’t reduce anti-Israel terror from Hamas-controlled territory one whit.

Abbas meets Abdullah, expresses hope for continued talks

In a meeting between Abbas and Jordan's King Abdullah II, the two leaders discussed how to renew Israeli-Palestinian peace talks, but reiterated demands that Israel halt all settlement activity and accept the 1967 lines as the borders of the future Palestinian state, Wafa reported.

Khaled Abu Toameh: The many contradictions of Mahmoud Abbas

True, the failure of the peace process with Israel has undermined Abbas’s standing among many Palestinians. But that’s surely not the main reason why many Palestinians have lost their faith in him and his leadership.
In recent years, Abbas has managed to confuse many Palestinians by sending contradictory messages to them and the rest of the world.

January 9

2012-01-09T10:59:00.004-06:00

The two faces of Al Jazeera

Lost in the exuberance is the fact that a vast gulf still separates the channel's English iteration from the original Arabic, which fifteen years after its birth continues to inflame Arab resentments in its promotion of anti-Americanism, Sunni sectarianism and, in recent years, Islamism.
As AJE debuts in New York, many viewers who do not speak Arabic will presume the station to be a direct or approximate translation of its parent network in Qatar.[5] But to appreciate what Al Jazeera English is, it is critical to remember just what it is not—even a remote likeness of its Arabic-speaking progenitor.

Iraq demands Kurds hand over Sunni vice president

Although the Kurdish region is part of Iraq, it enjoys considerable autonomy. The Kurds have their own security force, and police under the control of Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Al Maliki do not operate there.

Iran sentences American to death for spying

But Hekmati's family in the United States told US media he had travelled to Iran to visit his Iranian grandmothers and he was not a spy.

Alleged CIA agent in Iran sentenced to death

The revolutionary court issued the death verdict against Hekmati for his cooperation with a country hostile to Iran, affiliation to the CIA, and efforts to link Iran to terrorism, Fars reported.

Iran says arrests US 'spies' ahead of election

Iran has arrested an unidentified number of "spies" who allegedly sought to carry out US plans and disrupt an upcoming parliamentary election, intelligence minister Heydar Moslehi said on Sunday.

Iran starts nuclear work in mountain bunker

Iran has started refining uranium deep inside a mountain, diplomatic sources said on Monday, a move likely to exacerbate a dispute with Western powers that suspect Tehran is seeking a nuclear weapons capability.

Will Turkey demand an apology from Iran?

Iranian border guards reportedly shot two Turks crossing illegally into Iran from Turkey. Perhaps this can be the moment of truth for Turkey and its prime minister. When Israeli forces warned and then fired on Turks attempting to run Israel’s lawful blockade of Gaza, Turkish authorities demanded apologies, compensation, and a complete end to the blockade of Hamas’ administration in Gaza. Yet when Iranians kill Turks without warning, Turkey’s response is silence. Perhaps Turkey’s problem isn’t the protection of its citizens after all.

Barry Rubin: The Region: Bright future ahead for Erdogan

For the first time in 40 years, Israel is not the American president’s favorite Middle Eastern ally. Instead, that role is played by Turkey’s government.
. . . Indeed, the truly bizarre thing about Obama’s judgment is that Erdogan has done nothing beneficial to the US and several detrimental things to it. These include:

Arab League presses on with under-fire Syria mission

Turkey, which has openly called for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to step down, meanwhile, called on the opposition to keep up its resistance through “peaceful means.”

Arab League accused of Syria cover-up

The opposition Muslim Brotherhood accused the Arab League of seeking to "cover up the crimes" of the Syrian regime, after the pan-Arab organization decided to extend its observer mission.

Syria wages war against dissidents in Europe

As a result of the attack, Ahma suffered wounds and bruises to his body. The German case is not the first example of the Syrian regime working to repress dissidents in foreign countries. Syrian critics in the U.S. have complained to the State Department in Washington about Syrian intelligence agents working to intimidate and silence opponents of the Syrian regime in the United States.

Muslim Brotherhood says will not honor peace treaty with Israel

Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood, which claims it has won at least 41 percent of the seats in Egypt's lower house of parliament in the third round f voting, on Saturday denied remarks made by U.S. State Department Spokeswoman Victoria Nuland that the Islamist group made guarantees to the U.S. that it would continue to respect Egypt's peace treaty with Israel.

Rebel without a state: Evgeny Lebedev meets Ismail Haniyeh, Prime Minister of Gaza

But what I found was not a man seeking to reach out the olive branch. It was a man who had seen how the Middle East had been reshaped and who now believed – or so he said – that his version of the Palestinians' destiny might now be on the point of being realised.
"The Palestinian cause is winning," he told me. "With the Muslim Brotherhood part of the government [in Egypt], they [the Egyptians] will not besiege Gaza. They will not arrest Palestinians. They will not give cover to Israel to launch a war. Gaza was a main reason for the Arab Spring. It was people's anger at the regimes that co-operated with Israel and did not recognise the government here.

Hamas PM: We will never give up our arms, territory, or claims on Jerusalem

He predicted difficult days ahead for Israel, which is grappling with how to respond to the Arab Spring, a series of popular uprisings that began in Tunisia a year ago.

Will Palestinian reconciliation lead to a Hamas takeover of the PLO?

The agreement on reconciliation and a strategic partnership was reached in a meeting between Abbas and Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal in Cairo on 22 December, and its implementation was envisaged on three levels: a comprehensive national reconciliation, a reform of the PLO, and accords on a strategic approach to the challenges facing the Palestinians.

Jordan 'orders seizure of assets' of ex-strongman Dahlan

Jordan has ordered the seizure of the assets of former Palestinian security chief Mohammed Dahlan who is under investigation for corruption and murder in the West Bank, a newspaper said on Monday.

'PA joined talks unwillingly, doesn’t want peace'

The Foreign Minister explained that the PA only joined peace talks because they felt they could not refuse Jordanian King Abdullah, and that the Palestinians are using the opportunity to “prepare excuses and transfer the responsibility for the talks’ failure to Israel.”

January 8

2012-01-08T11:37:00.004-06:00

FPI Bulletin: New defense guidance embraces strategic decline

At the core of the President’s new strategic defense guidance is the belief—or, rather, the hope—that in the future the United States will not have to fight more than one major war at a time. Unfortunately, the evolving security environment does not lend itself to such rosy optimism. Indeed, the United States could find itself involved in many foreseeable—and unforeseeable—conflicts in the future.

The defense budget and America’s decline

There are many salient points to make about President Obama’s terribly unwise plan to cut $500 billion in defense spending during the next decade. But I want to focus on what I think it reveals about the worldview of America’s 44th president.

Don’t sell defense secrets to Turkey

Against the backdrop of the Pentagon budget cuts, recouping several hundred million dollars by selling the new generation F-35 Joint Strike Fighter to allies might at first glance make sense. Certainly, there will be no shortage of trustworthy customers, not only in Western Europe but also in Israel and Japan. Yesterday, Turkey announced that it plans to purchase the plane as well. While Turkey is part of the consortium which constructed the plane, the contract to have Turkey contribute to the fuselage was more a diplomatic bone to throw than a necessity. Turkey, however, has had no role in the stealth aspect of the plane nor the cutting edge software and electronics which make the F-35 possible.

Panetta: U.S. will not allow Iran to develop nuclear bomb, block Strait of Hormuz

Panetta, speaking to CBS' Face the Nation, said that if Iran started developing a weapon, the U.S. would act. "I think they need to know that — that if they take that step — that they're going to get stopped."

Iran: Underground nuclear site near operational

Iran's underground uranium enrichment facility will start operations soon, a senior official was quoted by Iranian media on Sunday as saying, a move likely to increase tension between the Islamic state and the West over Tehran's nuclear ambitions.

Royal Navy sends its mightiest ship to take on the Iranian show of force in the Gulf

Naval commanders believe the deployment of HMS Daring, a Type 45 destroyer, will send a significant message to the Iranians because of the firepower and world-beating technology carried by the warship.

Iran president leaves on anti-U.S. LatAm tour

His trip was to take him to Venezuela, Nicaragua, Cuba and Ecuador -- all countries that "resist the oppression" of the United States and share "an anti-colonialist view," he said just before flying out, according to the Fars news agency.

Report: Russian naval force arrives at Syria port in 'show of solidarity'

Last November, a Syrian news agency reported that Russian warships were planned to arrive at Syrian territorial waters, indicating that the move represented a clear message to the West that Moscow would resist any foreign intervention in the country's civil unrest.

Claim and counterclaim: Who is bombing Damascus?

In the recent past, it wasn't unusual to hear Syrians (those who dared whisper about politics) say that although they lived under a repressive regime, they had bread on the table, and car bombs didn't go off in their neighborhoods, unlike in their troubled neighbor to the east, Iraq. Such security was part of a decades-old, now decaying grand old bargain with autocratic leaders: they'd provide relative peace and limited prosperity in exchange for iron-fisted, one-party rule. In particular, the Syrian capital Damascus, the headquarters of all 18 or so of the state's security and intelligence agencies, as well as the military, was particularly impenetrable to would-be no-gooders.

Thousands attend Damascus funerals

State television showed the coffins of the victims being carried through the streets of Damascus amid tight security, and the wailing of grieving women and men echoed across Midan district where the blast took place.

Egyptians worried over 'morality squads'

For 25-year-old Suzie, who is Muslim thanks to her father, Egypt has become a dichotomy of faith and honor. Now, she fears the rise of online groups espousing to uphold the country’s “morality.” These “morality police” groups are gaining steam, and for many Egyptians, especially women, the idea has them fearful that the country could quickly turn into an ultra-conservative Islamic state akin to Saudi Arabia.

U.S. reaches out to Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood

A once reluctant United States is reaching out to the Muslim Brotherhood in a nod to Egypt's new political reality, but concerns linger about the group's attitude toward minorities, women and the peace treaty with Israel.

Barry Rubin: Such a “Great” idea it can now be proclaimed but not criticized: Obama supports the Muslim Brotherhood

First, of course the U.S. government must deal with Egypt’s government but that doesn’t mean it should publicly proclaim that the Brotherhood is a nice group and give what amounts to an unconditional endorsement of it.
Indeed, the Obama Administration and media are using a cheap trick. They confuse the proper, responsible policy of dealing with those in power while doing something quite beyond that: a self-destructive policy of rushing to insist that sworn enemies of freedom and the United States are really nice guys and there’s no problem with having them in power.

Christian emigration: mildest in Jordan vis-à-vis region, but worrying enough

General Secretary of Church Leaders in Jordan Father Hanna Kildani said that Jordanian Christian emigration is “stable”, and is mostly attributed to economic factors.
However, he acknowledged that the past few years have seen changes, such as the rise of religious extremism in the region, that have scared off some families, who decided to leave for what they see as safer places to live.

Abbas: Fatah must reevaluate reconciliation pact with Hamas

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas's Fatah movement said on Sunday it would have to reevaluate its reconciliation pact with the Islamist Hamas group following the rejection of a Fatah visit to the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip last week.

Khaled Abu Toameh: Fatah: Hamas 'gangs' banned our men from entering Gaza

The four men – Ismail Jaber and Rouhi Fattouh, top advisers to Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, and Fatah central committee members Sakher Bsaisso and Muhammad Madani – said they were stopped by Hamas policemen at the Gaza side of the Erez checkpoint on Friday.

IDF arrests four Palestinians for carrying weapons at West Bank checkpoint

Later, the Palestinian also triggered the metal detector alarm, causing present soldiers to detain the man, at which point he was found to be in possession of an improvised handgun, ammunition, as well as 11 pipe bombs.

January 6

2012-01-06T12:49:00.004-06:00

US 'turns page on a decade of war'

The United States is "turning the page on a decade of war", President Barack Obama said, as he unveiled a major strategic review that will cut $489 billion in defence spending over the next ten years.

Max Boot: Slashing America's defense: A suicidal trajectory

The U.S. armed forces have spent the past decade fighting two of the largest counterinsurgency campaigns in their history. In Iraq, they have dramatically reduced the threat from al-Qaeda and Moqtada al-Sadr’s Mahdist Army, and they are now in the process of doing the same to the Taliban and the Haqqani Network in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
But just as they are drawing down in both Iraq and Afghanistan, they have met an opposing force that might prove more formidable than any of those terrorist groups. These adversaries do not carry guns and do not plant IEDs. They wear green eyeshades and wield complex spreadsheets, and with these tools alone they have the potential to devastate our armed forces—and, if left unchecked, will do more damage to their fighting capacity than the Taliban, al-Qaeda, or any other external foe could inflict.

And: The NYTimes’ path of deep defense cuts

The New York Times today has another example of my favorite kind of editorial–the self-refuting kind. The Times editors applaud President Obama’s new defense strategy for a “A Leaner Pentagon” and even fret that a renewed focus on the Pacific could justify “unrestrained” spending (this at a time of plummeting defense spending). Then the editors add what is known in the trade as a “to be sure” paragraph:

Responses to Obama's strategy of weakening defense

Iran intensifies efforts to influence policy in Afghanistan

Worried that U.S. troops could stay in Afghanistan beyond 2014, Iran is mounting an aggressive campaign to fuel anti-American sentiment here and convince Afghan leaders that a robust, long-term security partnership with Washington would be counterproductive, Afghan officials and analysts say.
. . . Iran’s strategy in Afghanistan is reminiscent of its maneuvering in Iraq, where it helped fuel the insurgency and persuaded Iraqi politicians not to yield on allowing the Americans a small military presence beyond 2011.

European Union weighs delaying ban on Iranian oil, sources say

A European Union embargo on Iranian crude oil imports could take a few months to come into effect because of a push by some EU capitals for a delay that they say is necessary to shield their debt-stricken economies, EU diplomats said on Friday.

Israeli and US troops gear up for major missile defense drill after Iran maneuvers

The drill is called “Austere Challenge 12” and is designed to improve defense systems and cooperation between the U.S. and Israeli forces. It follows a 10-day Iranian naval exercise near the strategic Strait of Hormuz.

Hard-line U.S. policy tips Iran toward belligerence

Obama administration officials think Iran is weak and isolated. They focus on the country’s shambolic economy, its faltering relations with Europe, and the effect the Arab Spring has had in turning public opinion in the Middle East against Iran.
But Iran’s rulers have a different outlook. Here’s what they see: The U.S. and Europe are economically weak and extremely vulnerable to high oil prices. China and Russia have broken with the U.S. and Europe over Iran. The U.S. is hastily leaving Iraq and abandoning the war in Afghanistan. U.S. relations with Pakistan are unraveling.

Turkey’s coup

Last night, Turkish security forces arrested İlker Başbuğ, the former head of the Turkish General Staff. Headlines charge that Başbuğ was involved in a coup plot and emphasize that a civilian court handed down the warrant. This is like exculpating the Iranian judiciary for its targeting of liberals and secularists. After all, in Turkey, Prime Minister Erdoğan and his Islamist ruling party long ago subverted the independence of the judiciary. Nor should liberals and proponents of democracy cheer Başbuğ’s arrest. Scratching beneath the headlines, the true charge is that Başbuğ criticized the ruling party’s turn away from secularism in writing.

Fouad Ajami: America and the solitude of the Syrians

Nearly a year into Syria's agony, the Arab League last week dispatched a small group of monitors headed by a man of the Sudanese security services with a brutal record in the killing fields of Darfur. Gen. Mohammed al-Dabi, a trusted aide of Sudan's notorious ruler, Omar al-Bashir, didn't see anything "frightening" in the embattled city of Homs, nor did he see the snipers on the rooftops in the southern town of Deraa.

Syria Interior Ministry: We will respond with 'iron fist' to 'terrorist escalation'

Syria's interior ministry said it would respond "with an iron fist" to what it called "terrorist escalation" after a suicide bomb attack on Friday, the third such attack in the capital Damascus in two weeks, state television said.

Syria: France says Arab League mission 'unable to do job'

The Arab League mission sent to monitor unrest in Syria is unable to do its job properly, according to France, as a deadly bombing killed up to 25 in Damascus.

Damascus bomb kills 25 as regime suffers

The bomb was detonated at a set of traffic lights in the historic district of al-Midan, just south of Damascus's ancient walled city, state television reported.

Arab League asks for Hamas help with Syria violence

The head of the Arab League said on Friday he had asked the Damascus-based leader of the Palestinian movement Hamas to ask the Syrian government to work to halt violence in the country.

Where's the no-fly zone for Syria?

The violence inflicted against anti-government protesters in Syria is far greater than that experienced by the opposition during the similar stage in the Libyan revolution, but the West is strangely reticent about coming to the aid of the protesters. Last spring, you may recall, the prospect of a "humanitarian disaster" in Benghazi at the hands of Col Gaddafi's forces was suffient to prompt mssrs Cameron and Sarkozy to call for the imposition of a no-fly zone.

Michael Young: Is Hezbollah losing control?

Hezbollah controls the commanding heights of the Lebanese state. It has considerable sway over the army and the intelligence apparatus, not to mention over Beirut airport and port. It has an independent telecommunications network, which it has been able to install throughout large parts of the country. And it has access to numerous ministries through its political partners and clients. The list goes on. But one thing Hezbollah cannot do is impose harmony on a litigious political environment to advance its interests. The ensuing pluralism poses the greatest threat to Hezbollah’s well-being.

Pious coke dealers?

The indictment charges Hezbollah kingpin Ayman Joumaa with smuggling more than 100 tons of Colombian cocaine with the Mexican Zetas drug cartel, yielding hundreds of millions of dollars for the terror group. Indeed, the feds show that Hezbollah relies on a carefully constructed system of criminal enterprises from America to Africa to the Middle East.

Lee Smith: Minority interest

Being Christian in the Middle East has never been easy, but the wave of uprisings that has swept the region over the past year has made the situation for the region’s Christian minority almost unbearable. Violence against Egypt’s Coptic Christians—particularly church burnings, which have become routine—has gotten the most attention. But for the best bellwether of where things are headed, look to Lebanon’s Christians.

Latest Egypt vote brings Islamists closer to win

The Muslim Brotherhood won more than a third of the votes in the last stage of elections for Egypt's lower house of parliament, according to partial results on Friday, which show the Islamists are set to dominate the legislature.

US: Brotherhood says it won't break Israel treaty

The Muslim Brotherhood assured the United States that it will not break the Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty despite public statements to the contrary, a State Department spokesperson said Thursday.

Caroline Glick's Column One: The land-for-peace hoax

The question naturally arises: Will the US act in accordance with its role as guarantor of the peace and demand that the new Egyptian government give Sinai back to Israel? Because if the Obama administration or whatever administration is in power when Egypt abrogates the treaty does not issue such a demand, and stand behind it, and if the EU does not support the demand, the entire concept of land-for-peace will be exposed as a hoax.
Indeed the land-for-peace formula will be exposed as a twofold fiction. First, it is based on the false proposition that the peace process is a two-way street. Israel gives land, the Arabs give peace. But the inevitable death of the Egyptian- Israeli peace accord under an Egyptian jihadist regime makes clear that the land-for-peace formula is a one-way street. Israeli land giveaways are permanent. Arab commitments to peace can be revoked at any time.

Israel's 2012 security outlook

There is no doubt that the wave of uprisings that swept through the Arab world in 2011 changed the rules of the game in the region and created potential old-new threats for Israel. With most of them we already successfully contended in the past – for example, the Egyptian army's deployment in the Sinai or terror on our borders with Jordan and Syria. Yet alongside the substantive and potential threats piling up at the outset of 2012, mostly in the short term, we can see quite a few positive developments that may improve Israel's strategic position in the medium and long range.

Obama lauds King Abdullah’s peace efforts

The King said talks he is scheduled to have with Obama in the middle of this month in Washington will constitute a chance to exchange views on the future of the Middle East peace process, regional developments and issues of concern to the two countries, the statement concluded.

‘Document Israel gave PA was just an outline’

The 21-point document Israel gave the Palestinians in Amman this week dealt with general principles of what will be needed to reach a final agreement, not with detailed Israeli proposals, Western diplomatic officials said on Thursday.

The Palestinians are part of the old Arab order

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The Palestinians are part of the old Arab order because time and time again they have aligned themselves with the worst dictators of the Arab world. Their own governments in the West Bank and Gaza are cut from the same cloth as the regimes of the old Arab order; they are one-party police-states where the opposition and the media are suppressed. They demand the right to self-determination for themselves but deny it to others. They are also part of the old Arab order of terrorism.

Israel should remember: Obama is down, not out

It's clear that if Obama is reelected, there's a reasonable chance that the diplomatic issue will come up again full force. Even more so if U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (who openly said she was tired of us) continues to serve in her present position, or is even chosen by Obama to serve as his vice president, because of her popularity with women. In this case, Bibi can expect to face a tough time.
Israel is dependent on the United States in every sphere, and there is reason to fear that the present government will think that in a year when Obama is a lame duck, it can do as it pleases. If we cross red lines, Obama will have it in for us, even though he's sweating it out in elections. A president is a president, even when he is fighting for his political survival.

Book report: Native son

David Galula, a Tunisia-born Jew and French military officer who has been dead more than 40 years, was the greatest single influence on American counterinsurgency practice in Iraq and Afghanistan after Gen. David Petraeus. The idea that winning the population’s loyalty, not winning territory, is the key to quelling an insurgency has roots dating back 200 years to the Prussian theorist Carl von Clausewitz, but Galula was the conduit through which the U.S. Army learned it. The notion of active patrolling of hostile cities, of dispersing U.S. forces in small groups rather than stationing them on large bases, the insistence on getting to know the local culture—all these are Galula’s ideas.

January 5

2012-01-05T11:18:00.004-06:00

End of Arab Christianity

Welcome to a Christians-free Middle East. Arab Christianity is near its extinction everywhere. “Christianity in Iraq could be eradicated in our lifetime, partially as a result of the US troop withdrawal,” declared Leonard Leo, chairman of the US Commission on International Religious Freedom.

Sectarian attacks in Iraq leave over 70 dead

Officials said 44 people died and 72 were wounded in the attack, which occurred just west of Nasiriyah as pilgrims were walking to the holy shrine city of Karbala for Arbaeen commemorations.
The attack came on the same day two Shiite neighbourhoods in Baghdad were targeted in bombings that left at least 23 people dead

Max Boot: Innocent Iraqis paying a heavy price

It has not taken long for innocent Iraqis to pay a heavy price for President Obama’s failure to renew the treaty that would allow an American force to remain in Iraq post-2011. The price is only likely to rise in the coming months–and the increased instability will exact a heavy toll not only on Iraq but also on American interests in this vital region.

'Attacks on Iran won't be allowed from Turkish territory'

The Turkish foreign minister attempted to dispel rumors that the NATO missile shield recently stationed in Turkey, should pose as a threat to Iran or damage relations between the countries.

Iran rails against West's 'economic war'

At the same time, other officials played down the impact of the looming EU ban, saying demand was so high for Iranian oil that they would have no trouble selling it elsewhere.

Analysis: Iran sanctions are test for West diplomacy

Some experts argue that growing evidence of restrictions' impact may complicate diplomacy needed to resolve West's long-running standoff with Tehran.

Iran sought to broker Syria deal between Assad, Muslim Brotherhood

“We refused to meet with them,” said Mr. Tayfour, one of nine members of the Syrian National Council's executive committee, which is leading the opposition to the Assad regime. “We told them [through a Turkish mediator] that Iran has been taking sides against the Syrian people.

As U.S. explores dialogue with Muslim Brotherhood, Israelis urge a tougher line against Islamists’ rise

Unlike its predecessor, the Obama Administration has understood the limits on Washington’s ability to remake the Middle East to its own specifications. The corollary, of course, is that in a rapidly democratizing region, refusal to engage with political Islam will leave the U.S. increasingly isolated from the Arab mainstream. As a result, the Administration has begun holding high-level meetings with those it has traditionally shunned, such as Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood. But whatever their diplomatic logic, such moves may carry a not insubstantial domestic political cost in an election season where the President’s rivals are keen to paint him as insufficiently supportive of Israel.

Obama gets engaged to the Brotherhood

The argument in favor of engagement is based on the notion that the Brotherhood is a fact of life and, as the parliamentary elections have shown, clearly the most popular political force in Egypt. However, that doesn’t mean its intentions are compatible with the creation of a freer and more democratic Egypt, let alone U.S. interests. The ideology of the Brotherhood, like that of the more radical Salafis who also came out ahead in the elections, is still geared toward the creation of an Islamic state and, notwithstanding the credulous reporting of writers like Kristof, the end of minority religious rights and any vestige of freedom in Egypt.

Syria: Arab League turns to UN for help

The Arab League has turned to the United Nations for help after admitting "mistakes" in its Syria monitoring mission, which has come in for withering criticism for its failure to stem bloodletting.

Tony: Birds of a Syrian feather don’t flock together

This past week, a public controversy erupted in the ranks of the Syrian opposition over an aborted attempt at a unified platform between two of its coalition groups. The spectacle once again shed the spotlight on the problems in the Obama administration's Syria policy.

Death penalty sought for Hosni Mubarak

In wrapping up the three-day case, chief prosecutor Mustafa Suleiman said for his part that "the president of the republic is responsible for protecting the people, and the question is not simply one of whether he ordered the killing of protesters, but to know why he did not intervene to stop the violence.

Egypt’s Islamists could soon challenge generals

The dominant showing by the Muslim Brotherhood’s Freedom and Justice Party in Egypt’s first post-revolution elections puts the country on a collision course, analysts say, with emboldened Islamists and the entrenched military set to vie for power.

Hamas says Gaza not “Occupied,” But U.N. disagrees

Noting the Hamas statement reflects the reality since Israel's full withdrawal in 2005, the Geneva-based monitoring group UN Watch called on the UN to encourage Palestinians to take responsibility for areas they control, and to cease referring to Gaza, in reports and through officials and spokespeople, as “occupied territory.”

State urged to take tougher stance on future abductions

A special committee appointed to establish guidelines for how the government should respond to terrorist abductions of Israelis submitted its final recommendations to Defense Minister Ehud Barak Thursday morning, calling on the government to toughen its stance against terrorist groups in the event of future abductions.

Jordan King Abdullah's Christmas Eve initiative

A Western diplomat with knowledge of the inner workings of the Jordanian initiative said that it was at that Bethlehem meeting that Judeh received Abbas’ final approval to send an envoy to the planned Amman session. According to the diplomat, the Jordanian FM, upon his return to Jordan, presented the initiative to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s envoy Yitzhak Molho, inviting him to the meeting.

January 4

2012-01-04T15:59:00.005-06:00

Turkey warns against Shi'ite-Sunni Cold War

Middle East powerhouse Turkey on Wednesday warned against a sectarian Cold War in the region and said rising Sunni-Shi'ite tensions would be "suicide" for the whole region.

Barry Rubin: Sunni versus Shia: The Middle East's new strategic conflict

Of course, conflicts between Sunni and Shia Muslims are not at all new, but the fact that this is becoming a central feature on the regional strategic level is a dramatic shift. After all, as long as there were secular-style regimes preaching an all-inclusive Arab nationalist identity, differences between religious communities were subordinated. Once there are Islamist regimes, theology becomes central again, as it was centuries ago.

The real Iranian threat in the Gulf

Iran's bellicose rhetoric and Gulf war games in recent days have given rise to the question of whether Tehran could close the Strait of Hormuz. As many analysts have observed, the answer is no -- not for a meaningful period of time. Less frequently addressed, however, is whether Iran would even try. The answer to that question is also "no" -- even the attempt would have devastating strategic consequences for Iran.

EU reaches agreement to ban imports of Iranian oil

The agreement, news of which sent crude oil prices higher, followed talks in the last days of December between EU envoys, diplomats said. Objections to the idea, notably from Greece, were dropped during the talks, they said.

Obama statement means no Iran embargo

When Congress passed an amendment to the National Defense Authorization Act last month that mandated a ban on all transactions with Iran’s Central Bank, it gave the administration the tool it needed to allow President Obama to make good on his promise to prevent Tehran from ever obtaining nuclear weapons. Restrictions on dealing with the bank would make it possible to put into place an oil embargo on Iran, the one type of sanction that could bring the Islamist regime to its knees. But the inclusion of waivers in the bill at the White House’s request also made it possible that nothing would be done. Though the president signed the Act into law during the holiday weekend, the release of his signing statement confirms our doubts about his intentions.

Sentenced to death in Tehran, Iranian ‘Apostate’ refused exile in Romania

The Romanian news agency Mediafax reports that an Iranian refugee who has been condemned to death for “apostasy” in Tehran has had his request for political exile in Romania refused by the Romanian immigration office. The Christian convert Habib Bastam was originally condemned to death by a Tehran court in 2009. The sentence appears to have been upheld in 2010 by the Islamic Revolutionary Court, after which, according to Mediafax, Bastam took refuge in Romania, while his wife and son remained in Iran.

Best-laid plans…

It takes too long to make a difference. That is what Syrian activists think of the Arab League monitors sent on the ground to make sure Bashar al Assad’s regime is implementing a peace plan it agreed to on paper.

Syria opposition struggles to stay united

Syria's opposition was in disarray on Wednesday, struggling to present a united front in the face of a protest crackdown whose death toll rose again despite the presence of Arab League monitors.

Analysis: Doubts over Syria rebel army unity

Threats by Syrian armed insurgents to step up attacks on security forces, just days after their leader announced a truce that was largely ignored, have reinforced doubts over the control top officers exert over rebel fighters on the ground.

Muslim Brotherhood in the lead as Egyptians vote in final round of election

The Islamist Muslim Brotherhood was edging on Wednesday toward a dominant role in Egypt's first free parliament in decades, but said it would not impose its will over a new constitution and would work with all political rivals on the blueprint.

U.S. overtures to Muslim Brotherhood reverse longtime policy

It would be “totally impractical” not to engage with the brotherhood “because of U.S. security and regional interests in Egypt,” a senior administration official involved in shaping the new policy said, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss diplomatic affairs.
Some close to the administration have even called this emerging U.S. relationship with the brotherhood a first step toward a pattern that could take shape with the Islamist parties coming to power around the region in the aftermath of the uprisings of the Arab Spring. Islamists have taken important roles in Morocco, Libya, Tunisia and Egypt in less than a year.

National Security Council: Obama naive on Muslim Brotherhood

The council, responsible for providing the prime minister and cabinet ministers with strategic assessments, said it was concerned about the Muslim Brotherhood's rise in Egypt, especially in light of the group's world view and pronouncements from its officials, repeated as recently as this week, that call the Israeli-Egyptian peace treaty into question. The Brotherhood's second-in-command Dr. Rashad Bayumi, said on Sunday that the Muslim Brotherhood, which is set to dominate Egypt's new parliament, will never recognize Israel and will even work to amend the Egypt-Israel peace treaty. "No Muslim Brotherhood members will engage in any contact or normalization with Israel," Bayumi told Al-Hayat.

Barry Rubin: Hamas openly joins Brotherhood; Brotherhood openly joins Hamas’s war on Israel

Haniyeh described Hamas as the Palestinian branch of the Brotherhood. Referring to their alliance Haniyeh said, “Our presence with the Brotherhood threatens the Israeli entity.” It certainly does since Hamas will enjoy the Brotherhood’s full support in its anti-Israel activities including the use of violence and, probably, in the event of any future war with Israel.

Turkey to Hamas: Next year in Jerusalem

When the deputy head of Turkey’s ruling party meets with a terrorist leader to encourage territorial conquest, perhaps it’s time for Israel to play hardball.

Palestinians, Israelis hold ‘positive’ round of peace talks in Amman

“Today we have seen the first face-to-face meeting between the two sides for more than 16 months, the fruit of extensive efforts made by His Majesty King Abdullah,” Judeh said.

Fatah, Hamas officials down on Amman talks

Officials from Fatah and Hamas Wednesday criticized meetings between Israeli and Palestinian negotiators in Jordan Tuesday, complaining that Israel came "empty handed," and calling the talks a "waste of time."

As Israelis and Palestinians talk, the rise of a political Islam alters the equation

Israeli and Palestinian officials met in Amman, Jordan, on Tuesday, their first encounter in more than a year, and while little emerged, the meeting said a great deal about the crossroads facing the Palestinians — and the entire Middle East — as political Islam emerges as a potentially transformative force in the region.

January 3

2012-01-03T11:49:00.004-06:00

Historian Victor Davis Hanson: Will 2012 be our 1979?

The result of all this, as in the fashion of 1979–80, is that many nations — Iran, North Korea, China, Pakistan, Russia — might conclude that there is now a good full year left for readjustment to the global security scene in ways that will not earn much reaction from the U.S. Certainly current American allies like Taiwan, Israel, South Korea, Japan, Iraq, Afghanistan, and Eastern Europe might have good reason to assume that the U.S. is scaling back, does not have its heart in old defense commitments made long ago during a different era, and does not wish to perpetuate a world order not of its own making.

Too early to judge the Arab revolts

Some commentators are trying to characterize in broad-brushstrokes what is taking place in Arab political culture. Some are identifying the main feature as a liberationist imperative that has gripped the Arab political imagination. Others warn that popular uprisings without clear aims will inevitably lead to the “victory” of Islamists. Others say we have entered into a period of protracted chaos that will be characterized by increasing violence and conflict within states and regionally.

The great dictators of the Arab awakening

NOWLebanon takes a look at the leaders – past and present, dead and alive – of the five countries most affected by the Arab Spring and their public/media appearances during the uprisings. Curiously, the three toppled dictators were interviewed by ABC shortly before their downfall, a trend that does not look promising for Syria’s embattled leader, who faced questions by the TV network in early December.

Afghan Taliban 'strike deal to set up political office'

The Afghan Taliban said on Tuesday they have reached a preliminary agreement to set up a political office in the Gulf nation of Qatar, and asked for the release of prisoners held at the US military prison in Guantanamo Bay.

Fearful, Iraq’s Sunnis leave mixed neighbourhoods

His story and similar tales by other Sunnis suggest Iraqis are again segregating themselves along sectarian lines, prompted by a political crisis pulling at the explosive Sunni-Shiite divide just weeks after the American withdrawal left Iraq to chart its own future.

U.S. says will continue to deploy warships in Persian Gulf despite Iranian threats

"The U.S. Navy operates under international maritime conventions to maintain a constant state of high vigilance in order to ensure the continued, safe flow of maritime traffic in waterways critical to global commerce," he said.

Iran and the Saudi Shiites

Our assessment of Shiite violence in Saudi Arabia proves two things. Firstly, it proves that Iran is behind the violence directed against Saudi Arabia, under a Shia shadow. Secondly, similar events, past and present, have taken place in the Gulf, because it falls within the same framework. Such events include the attempt to assassinate Sheikh Jaber Al-Ahmad Al-Sabah in Kuwait, the hijacking of a plane to Jabriya, as well as the recent attempts to interfere in Kuwait and spread violence in Bahrain.

Saudi King’s reform step vs. Crown Prince’s ambitious Wahhabism

The Saudi Arabian monarchy is now led by two counterposed figures: the reforming King Abdullah and the fanatical Wahhabi crown prince Nayef. Recent incidents in the kingdom, although at first glance minor, may indicate the approach of a significant confrontation between modernizing and retrogressive tendencies in the royal family.

Syria opposition leader: In post-Assad era, Damascus would likely end its alliance with Iran

Syrian National Council leader says post-Assad regime would accept the Arab League peace initiative but will seek to reclaim the Golan Heights.

Hezbollah reiterates support for Syria

“Syria's only guilt is the support it has given to those who resist and we will stand by this country, its army, leadership and people so that it would remain in the face of all conspiracies aimed at tearing the [Arab] nation,” Yazbek said Sunday.

Israel worried Syria weapons going to terrorists

Concern partially stems from Western intelligence indicating chemical weaponry has been moved out of Syria by Hezbollah.

IDF bracing for all 'post-Assad' scenarios in Syria

The instability in Syria, as reflected in the soldiers' desertion, is a matter of real concern, one officer in the IDF Northern Command said. The IDF is preparing for several possible scenarios, including that the fall the current regime could be followed by the rise of Islamic Jihad and other terrorist groups. The IDF is also preparing for a possible attack in the Golan Heights on Israeli targets by Syrian civilians, without any real involvement of terrorist groups.

Hezbollah warns Syria chaos could hit Lebanon

A Hezbollah delegation warned after meeting Maronite Patriarch Beshara Rai Monday that the turmoil in Syria could spill over into Lebanon and called on rival Lebanese factions not to interfere in internal Syrian affairs.

Salafists eye big gains as Egypt enters final round of voting

While the electoral success of the hard-line Islamists have shocked pundits and politicians from Washington to Doha, the popularity comes as little surprise to those close to the salafist movement.

Hosni Mubarak was 'tyrannical leader'

The ailing 83-year-old former strongman, who was wheeled into court on a stretcher, is accused of involvement in the deaths of protesters during the uprising that overthrew him in February.

IDF: 8,000 rockets, missiles could hit Israel if war erupts

Based on these assessments and the growing arsenals of Hamas, Hezbollah, Syria and Iran, a war in 2017 would likely include the firing of 15,000 rockets and missiles into Israeli cities, causing greater devastation and more casualties. The IDF believes that most of the rockets will be short-range and another 5,500 will have a range over 70 km.

Palestinians warn of 'new measures' against Israel

The Palestinians say Israel must freeze settlement construction and agree to return to its pre-1967 lines for peace talks to resume. The Palestinians want to establish an independent state in the West Bank, east Jerusalem and the Gaza Strip – areas that were captured in the 1967 Mideast war.
Abbas said that if Israel accepts the Palestinian conditions, "we will go to negotiations." He said the Palestinians have set a Jan 26 deadline for talks to resume. "After that date, we will take new measures. These measures might be hard," he said.

Israeli-Palestinian ‘Meeting’ today in Jordan

For this, as the New York Times’ Ethan Bronner explains, is really all about Jordan. King Abdullah II is on his fourth prime minister since the Arab Spring began, because he faces the dual threats of a native Islamist movement (kin to Hamas and Egypt’s powerful Muslim Brotherhood) and the majority of his subjects who are Palestinian (he is Hashemite). (Nicolas Pelham published an excellent primer on Abdullah II’s situation last month.) The king wants to be seen as central and important now that Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, who usually hosted such talks, is out of the picture; wants to empower the more moderate P.A. as compared to Hamas, whose success threatens him both insofar as it emboldens his homegrown Islamist movement and as it increases the chance of a Hamas-run West Bank sharing 60 miles of Jordan’s border; and wishes to advance a Palestinian state in the territories lest the notion that majority-Palestinian Jordan absorb all the Palestinians become more enticing.

Hamas has nothing to teach Abbas about promulgating hate

Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas has just hired a new adviser, the Jerusalem Post reports. Mahmoud Awad Damra is one of the prisoners Israel freed to ransom kidnapped soldier Gilad Shalit in October; he was then five years into a 15-year sentence for his role as planner and logistics coordinator of several deadly terror attacks whose victims included three U.S. citizens. That, combined with his previous job running Yasser Arafat’s Force 17 security service, clearly qualifies him for his new role of advising Abbas on local government.

Gaza's Hamas PM warmly welcomed in Turkish parliament

The Palestinian leader received a standing ovation from the ranks of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) for his surprise entry into the room as the prime minister was making his weekly address to his fellow deputies.

In Middle East, best news is no news

So far, the Arab Spring has largely bypassed Israel, Gaza and the West Bank. Those areas are facing their own political mini-quakes but not on the magnitude of events in neighboring states. Still, the tremors should be enough to deter President Obama from pushing for renewed Mideast talks — and force him to look elsewhere for an October Surprise.

January 2

2012-01-02T12:34:00.004-06:00

The mutating al Qaeda threat

Just as important is the lesson that can be drawn from the key difference between the shoe-bomber and underwear-bomber plots - the first directed by al Qaeda Core and the latter by al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP): Since 2001, the broad threat from al Qaeda has metastasized away from its core leadership, mutated and spread, potentially making it even more dangerous than before.

Arabs dream of building democracy as 2012 begins

Millions of Arabs dream of attaining democracy in 2012, aiming to build on gains from the deadly protests that ousted two dictators and ended strongman Muammar Qadhafi's rule with his brutal killing.

Majority and minorities in the Arab world: The lack of a unifying narrative

What the West calls the Arab Spring is actually a sociopolitical eruption in the Arab world resulting from the total failure of all the Arab states to create a unifying national narrative and establish modern egalitarian polities. The Arab states have had 90 years to find commonality in the mosaic of ethnic, national, and religious groups in each country and build political, social, and economic cooperation between them. But instead of seeking what is unifying, and constructing an egalitarian society that mobilizes its resources to defeat backwardness and improve the economy, the elites have attempted through Arab nationalism and/or Islam to impose a unity that has always left parts of the population outside the majority community. The 90 years since the Arab states were established have been fraught with discord between the different communities, political and economic discrimination, uprisings, military coups, subversion, and conflicts between the states themselves. These conflicts have levied at least 5 million fatalities and many millions of wounded and refugees.

The Arab uprisings' impact

Although the wave of mass protests spreading through the Arabic-speaking countries may have begun to recede, it has left a wide-ranging impact on the region. Three authoritarian regimes have collapsed, and the rest are experiencing varying degrees of duress.
This emerging political and strategic landscape has major implications for Israeli national security. Regional turmoil has effectively ruled out a major advance in Arab-Israeli diplomacy, enabled Ankara and Tehran to expand their influence, continued the decline of U.S. influence, and emboldened extremists.

Iran seeking to expand influence in Latin America

Iran is quietly seeking to expand its ties with Latin America in what U.S. officials and regional experts say is an effort to circumvent economic sanctions and gain access to much-needed markets and raw materials.

Iran claims it can hit 'any target, any time'

In a drill that Iran claims shows that it could hit Israel and US bases, the country test-fires a long range shore-to-sea missile called Qader.

A dual track: Crippling sanctions and a credible military option for Iran

A senior congressional aide, who has been critical of President Obama’s Iran policy, concedes time is getting short. He e-mails: “There is serious reason to believe that 2012 will be the decisive year with respect to the confrontation over the Iranian nuclear program. The message from Israel isn’t just the usual saber rattling; this time, it’s deadly serious — first and foremost, because of advances that are being made on the ground by the Iranians.”

Syrian army leaves devastation behind

Arab League Secretary General Nabil Elaraby says Syria's military has withdrawn from residential areas and is on the outskirts of the country's cities as footage from Homs reveals the wreckage left after months of fighting.

The west has a duty to intervene in Syria

To grasp the scale of the barbarism, listen to Hamza Fakher, a pro-democracy activist, who is one of the most reliable sources on the crimes the regime's news blackout hides. "The repression is so severe that detainees are stacked alive and kicking in shipping containers and disposed off in the middle of the sea," he told me. "It is so bad that they've invented a new way of torture in Aleppo where they heat a metal plate and force a detainee to stand on it until he confesses; imagine all the melting flesh reaching the bone before the detainee falls on the plate. It is so bad that all demonstrators have opted for armed resistance. They know it is about survival now, not about freedom any more. This needs to be highlighted: Syrians are fighting for their lives now, not for freedom."

A new enemy for the Shia

To divert people’s attention away from the party’s shortcomings, Hezbollah needed a new bad guy, someone who could again reinforce fear among the people. Fear is necessary for the party’s survival; supporters willfully turn to Hezbollah’s firm grip for protection.
At the same time, it must look after its Syrian ally. Thus a new enemy is born: the Muslim Brothers, the Salafis and the Sunni extremists.

Egypt: Hosni Mubarak trial resumes amid acquittal speculation

The trial of Hosni Mubarak resumed on Monday amid speculation that a recent acquittal of policemen tried for killing Egyptian protesters could be a prelude to the dismissal of charges against the ousted leader.

Mubarak trial resumes in Egypt amid tight security

Dozens of people gathered outside the Police Academy building, where the trial in which Mubarak is facing charges of having ordered the killing of around 850 people during the revolt that toppled him from power in February is being held.

Hamas calls on Palestinian Authority to boycott peace talks with Israel

Hamas called on the Palestinian Authority Monday to boycott peace talks with Israel, saying such negotiations have not succeeded in the past.

Hamas condemns PA for agreeing to talk to Israel

Hamas leaders in Gaza on Monday called on the Palestinian Authority to cancel a meeting with Israeli negotiators set to take place in Amman on Tuesday, China's official Xinhua news agency reported.

Erekat: No negotiations yet

Amid reports about renewal of peace talks, chief Palestinian negotiator says Quartet meeting in Jordan doesn't signal resumption of negotiations. Sources in Jerusalem: Israel, Jordan share common interests against Hamas, Iran

Khaled Abu Toameh: Abbas
appoints released terrorist as advisor

Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas Monday issued a "presidential decree" appointing a prisoner who was released in the Gilad Schalit deal with Hamas as his advisor for local governments.

January 1

2012-01-01T11:25:00.006-06:00

The Muslim Brotherhood in the Arab world and Islamic communities in Western Europe

This study is updates and supplements the ITIC's June 2011 study of the Muslim Brotherhood. It examines the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and other Arab countries in the wake of the past year's regional uprisings. It deals with the nature of the movement in each country, its relations with the various regimes and evaluates its chances of exploiting regional unrest to its own ends. It also examines the Muslim Brotherhood's branches in Western European countries and the implications of its activity for both internal European affairs and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.

A year of Arab bravery

It was a sunny Friday lunchtime in late January, and outside a mosque near Cairo's Tahrir Square, a large crowd of demonstrators were in a face-off with an equally large crowd of Egypt's hated central security police.

Michael Young:An ideology has taken on life of its own in these uprisings

Looking back on the Arab revolts this year, that detail is worth remembering. Journalists and academics have sought to explain what happened through quantifiable yardsticks - a youth bulge, disparities between elites and the poor, rising unemployment and so on. But these factors would have counted for little without a meta-narrative unifying and channelling popular frustrations across the region, infusing them with a determination to overthrow their oppressors.

Caroline Glick's Column One: Obama’s foreign policy spin

In recent months, a curious argument has surfaced in favor of US President Barack Obama. His supporters argue that Obama’s foreign policy has been a massive success. If he had as much freedom of action on domestic affairs as he has on foreign affairs, they say, his achievements in all areas would be without peer.

Barry Rubin: Silly Obama rabbit, tricks are for Islamists

It’s the end of 2011 and also the end of the old order in the Middle East. It would be an exaggeration to say that it’s the end of U.S. interests in the region but it sure looks like the beginning of the end for a lot of them. The problem isn’t just Obama policy and the advance of revolutionary Islamism but the decline of the most basic logic and common sense in evaluating the world.

‘US pullout from Iraq new dawn’

The prime minister sought to credit Iraqis with the overthrow of Saddam Hussein and made no mention of the role played by US forces that invaded in March of 2003.

Police: Gunmen kill five Iraq Sunni militia

Gunmen carrying silenced weapons attacked a checkpoint manned by government-backed Sunni militiamen and killed all five of them in the restive Iraqi province of Diyala, security officials said on Saturday.

Iran fires radar-beating missile during naval drill

The 10-day naval exercise coincided with increased tension in Iran's nuclear row with Western powers. Iranian state television reported Sunday that it successfully produced and tested fuel rods for its nuclear power plants.

Iran's Strait of Hormuz: A challenge to U.S. policy

Rhetoric from Iran perceived as a threat to oil tankers passing through the strategic Strait of Hormuz has been countered by firm words from the U.S. Navy, which says it would not tolerate any disruption to maritime shipping. But the verbal clash serves as a reminder of how poorly prepared Arab Gulf exporters are for anything more than a limited blockage as well as of the possible effects of the Obama administration's policy of interfering with payments earned by Iran from its own oil exports.

'US reassures Israel over Saudi fighter jet deal'

According to the report, Assistant Secretary of State for Political Military Affairs Andrew Shapiro told Israel from Washington that the sale, which includes 84 new F-15 fighter jets, will not affect Israel's "qualitative military edge."

Syrian opposition groups unite against Assad

The move is so far the most serious by the fractured opposition to unite against the regime and shows that Assad’s opponents will accept nothing less than his departure from power.

Arab League advisory body urges end to Syria monitoring mission

The Arab Parliament, an Arab League advisory body called on Sunday for the immediate withdrawal of the organization’s monitoring mission in Syria, saying it was allowing Damascus to cover up continued violence and abuses.

Syrian activists dying to tell their story

Kept in a political intelligence base in the capital, for two months they were alternately interrogated and tortured for information on opposition activists operating in their town. Their questioners especially focused, the brothers said, on who was documenting crackdowns by the regime on demonstrations for dissemination to the foreign media.

The Arab Winter

In Syria, over the past nine months, agents of President Bashar al-Assad’s security apparatus have killed more than five thousand citizens, according to the United Nations. That’s an average of about twenty citizens a day since March, when peaceful demonstrators took to the streets to protest the Assad family’s forty-year dictatorship and the slaughter began. Videos uploaded to the Internet at the time showed throngs of defenseless men, women, and children, many of them waving olive branches, scattered by gunfire. Some videos showed Assad’s men (there are seventeen distinct security forces at his service) hunting down stragglers; other videos showed fallen bodies, bleeding and dead; and later, when people gathered to bury those bodies, there were more videos, of Assad’s forces opening fire on the funerals. There is no independent press in Syria, and foreign reporters are rarely allowed in, but as the protests and the crackdown continued through the summer and fall, the videos kept coming, denying the state the power it gets from invisibility. Shot on cell phones, the clips convey the terrifying pandemonium in the streets and linger insistently on its aftermath: a relentless array of cadavers—heads and torsos punctured, ripped, smashed, and spilling—memorialized in forensic close-up.

Michael Young: Sunnis, Shia, and Saad

It will soon be a year since Hezbollah and its allies brought down the government of Saad Hariri, through fair means and foul. But no one walked the former prime minister to Lebanon’s door and told him to get lost. That decision he appears to have implemented freely.

Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood: Fate of Israel peace treaty may be decided in referendum

The Muslim Brotherhood movement may bring the fate of Egypt's peace treaty to a referendum, the Islamist factions said on Sunday, adding that there wasn't any chance that the movement will recognize Israel.

2 mortar shells from Gaza contained phosphorous

Mortars containing phosphorous fired from Gaza have landed in Israeli territory in the past. Phosphorous is designed to ignite a fire around the impact zone. The chemical is banned by international law for use near civilians.

Gaza's Hamas leader in Turkey for meeting with Erdogan

The Gaza Strip's Hamas premier is in Turkey for meetings with Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the head of an Islamic aid group whose Gaza-bound vessel was the target of a deadly raid by Israeli troops in 2010.

Khaled Abu Toameh: Has Hamas really changed?

These "declarations" have thus far appeared only in Western media outlets. Mashaal's statements in Arabic, which were published in Hamas media outlets in the past few days, do not talk about accepting a two-state solution, recognizing Israel's right to exist or abandoning the armed struggle.

Israeli, Palestinian officials to meet Tuesday in Amman

Israel and Palestinian negotiators will met in Amman Tuesday for direct talks, The Jordanian Foreign Ministry announced Sunday. This will be the first public direct meeting between the sides in more than a year.

Israel, Palestinian envoys to hold talks in Jordan on Tuesday

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's personal emissary Yitzhak Molcho and chief Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat will meet in Amman on Tuesday in a bid to restart stalled Middle East peace negotiations.

The narrative of perpetual Palestinian victimhood

Listen to their language; it is the language of colonial oppression. Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas claims that Palestinians have been occupied for 63 years. The word oppressed is constant, exploited. In this, there is a poetic truth; like poetic license, in a poetic truth a writer will bend the rules in order to be more effective.
I will give you one example of a poetic truth that comes from my group, black Americans. We make the following claims: America is a deeply, intractably racist society. It may not be as conspicuous today as it was before. Nevertheless, it is still there today structurally and systemically, and it still holds us back and keeps us from achieving the American dream.

December 29

2011-12-29T11:41:00.003-06:00

Arab Spring: the revolution has only just begun

The Middle East faces a long, bumpy and bloody ride as nations struggle to build a new order while battling internal factions and outside interference.

Iran official: U.S. cannot stop us from cutting off world oil supply

The United States is in no position to advise Iran against cutting global oil supply in case of sanctions against its petroleum industry, a top Iranian commander said on Thursday.

Iran claims US warship patrolling near Strait of Hormuz

A showdown between Iran and the United States over Tehran's threats to close the strategic Strait of Hormuz to oil tankers worsened on Thursday with warships from each side giving weight to an increasingly bellicose exchange of words.

Iran's Hormuz threat

So now we know the kind of sanctions that hit Iran's regime where it really hurts. The U.S. and Europe are at last mustering the gumption to target Iran's multibillion-dollar oil industry, and almost immediately Tehran is threatening to bring Persian Gulf tankers to a halt.

Tehran’s moment of truth

Iran is under increasing pressure to abandon its nuclear program. The United States is about to ban commerce with Iran's central bank. The European Union is considering a new round of economic sanctions and joining the U.S. oil embargo against Iran. Saudi Arabia has decided to increase production to fill the gap should Europeans stop buying Iranian oil.

'Stuxnet weapon has at least 4 cousins'

Stuxnet has already been linked to another virus, the Duqu data-stealing trojan, but Kaspersky's research suggests that the cyber weapons program that targeted Iran may be far more sophisticated than previously known.

Obama’s Iran promises: Security or votes?

Given the problems a unilateral Israeli attack on Iran would entail, these assurances might be enough to dissuade the Netanyahu government from acting on its own. But given the contradictory signals the administration has been sending about the use of force on Iran and the differences between the two countries over intelligence on the threat that Lake reports, there is little reason for Jerusalem to be comforted by Obama’s promises. Israel’s leaders would be well advised to see this latest shift on Iran as intended more to convince American voters of the president’s good intentions than to make Tehran step back from the brink.

Weapons sales to Iraq move ahead despite U.S. worries

The Obama administration is moving ahead with the sale of nearly $11 billion worth of arms and training for the Iraqi military despite concerns that Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki is seeking to consolidate authority, create a one-party Shiite-dominated state and abandon the American-backed power-sharing government.

Turkey 'kills 35 smugglers' in strike against militants

Turkish warplanes strike militant targets regularly in the region in their battle against Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) guerrillas, and have stepped up raids after a PKK attack in August.

Protesters clash with police in Istanbul

Protesters have clashed with police during a protest in Istanbul denouncing Turkish air strikes in northern Iraq that killed 35 people.

US to sell $30 billion worth of F-15 fighter jets to Saudi Arabia

About a year ago, the administration got the go-ahead from Congress for a 10-year, $60 billion arms deal with Saudi Arabia that included F-15s, helicopters and a broad array of missiles, bombs and delivery systems, as well as radar warning systems and night-vision goggles.

Syrian forces 'kill 13 people' despite Arab League mission

At least four demonstrators were killed and more than 20 others wounded in Douma, the protest centre just north of the capital, when security forces sprayed protesters with bullets outside a mosque, a rights group said.

Arab League needs to tell the truth about Syria

The hopes of Syrians for an end to the criminal repression by the regime of Bashar al-Assad now depend on the Arab League and the observer force it dispatched to the country this week. It is a very thin reed. The observers were originally meant to number 500, but have been pushed down to 150; 66 had arrived in the country by Wednesday. Their chief, Gen. Mustafa al-Dabi, is a former intelligence director for Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir, who himself is under international indictment for crimes against humanity.

Tony: What’s Obama’s Plan B after Arab League monitors?

This was the Obama administration’s hope as well. But as that Arab official proceeded to note, “Assad will never allow this, and the Arab League will be accused by more Syrians of complicity.” And that is precisely where we find ourselves today, with some prominent Arab commentators making that exact same argument.

Obama administration secretly preparing options for aiding the Syrian 0pposition

Critics on Capitol Hill accuse the Obama administration of being slow to react to the quickening deterioration of the security situation in Syria, where over 5,000 have died, according to the U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights. Many lawmakers say the White House is once again "leading from behind," while the Turks, the French, and the Arab League -- which sent an observer mission to Syria this week - take the initiative to pursue more aggressive strategies for pressuring the Assad regime. But U.S. officials said that they are moving cautiously in order to avoid destabilizing Syria further, and to make sure they know as much as possible about the country's complex dynamics before getting more involved.

Mubarak wheeled back to court after 2 months

Egyptian sources, he said, have told him the ruling military council is trying to buy time until Mubarak dies. The former president is rumored to be gravely ill, and indefinitely delaying his verdict could spare him and the military the embarrassment of a conviction.
Egyptians began choosing a parliament a month ago in elections due to last until mid- January, but the vote has taken place in the shadow of violence and an economic crisis. Next week marks the start of the third and final round of parliamentary balloting, which has been dominated by Islamist parties led by the Muslim Brotherhood and even more extreme Salafi movements.

Elliott Abrams: What would a Hamas-Fatah agreement mean?

At a deeper level, a unity agreement would bring Hamas into the PLO and thereby compromise the PA’s and PLO’s commitment to fight terrorism and seek a Palestinian state without violence. Since the death of Arafat in 2004, the PA and PLO have abandoned terrorism and spoken out against it. But consider two recent statements [courtesy of Palestinian Media Watch], made days apart in December. First, PA president and PLO chairman Mahmoud Abbas, talking about negotiations with Hamas:

Palestinian rights group: Hamas targetting Fatah members in Gaza

Hamas says the charges are "false accusations" meant to disrupt reconciliation between the rival groups but notes that Hamas activists are still arrested by Fatah forces in the West Bank.

IDF confirms preparations for extensive future Gaza military action

Four rockets were fired Wednesday from Gaza into Israel, with two landing in open areas in the Eshkol region and another landing in the Sha'ar Hanegev region without exploding. There were no reported injuries or damage.

Analysis: A boiling pot waiting to explode

The IDF assesses that Hamas is not interested in a major conflict; its main concern is the stability of its rule in Gaza.

December 28

2011-12-28T13:37:00.004-06:00

US Navy 'will not tolerate' Iran closing Strait of Hormuz

The free flow of goods and services through the Strait of Hormuz is vital to regional and global prosperity," said a spokeswoman for the US Navy's Bahrain-based Fifth Fleet. "Anyone who threatens to disrupt freedom of navigation in an international strait is clearly outside the community of nations; any disruption will not be tolerated."

U.S., Israel discuss triggers for bombing Iran’s nuclear infrastructure

When Defense Secretary Leon Panetta opined earlier this month that an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities could “consume the Middle East in a confrontation and a conflict that we would regret,” the Israelis went ballistic behind the scenes. Michael Oren, Israel’s ambassador to Washington, lodged a formal diplomatic protest known as a demarche. And the White House was thrust into action, reassuring the Israelis that the administration had its own “red lines” that would trigger military action against Iran, and that there is no need for Jerusalem to act unilaterally.

Is model Turkey sliding into authoritarianism?

All of them are among the mounting number of Turkish lawyers, politicians, journalists, and academics put behind bars in recent months on dubious terror charges that are stoking fears that Turkey's courts and police are being used to crush political dissent.
Critics say that such cases are evidence that Turkey is sliding toward authoritarianism, even as it is lauded by Western governments as a role model for the Middle East – particularly

Syria frees 755 prisoners in attempt to save Arab League visit

The mission, which on Wednesday returned to Homs, the scene of bitter fighting between regime troops and the opposition, was initially barred from the flashpoint district of Baba Amr because it was accompanied by a regime lieutenant colonel.

Syria hiding detainees from observers: HRW

"The Arab League should insist on full access to all Syrian sites used for detention, consistent with its agreement with the Syrian government," the global watchdog said in a statement.

The world's worst human rights observer

As Arab League monitors work to expose President Bashar al-Assad's crackdown, the head of the mission is a Sudanese general accused of creating the fearsome "janjaweed," which was responsible for the worst atrocities during the Darfur genocide.

Not a parody: Head of Arab League monitors in Syria led Darfur genocide

The notion that the Arab League was going to stand up for human rights in Syria was always somewhat farcical. This is, after all, a group that has numbered among its members some of the worst tyrants in the world and which has supported terrorist groups so long as their targets were Jews and not Arab oligarchs. Nevertheless the world applauded when the League turned on Bashar Assad’s murderous Syrian regime and viewed its offer of placing monitors to ensure that the violence there ended. But in case anyone in the West is actually paying attention to the slaughter in Syria, the identity of the head of that peace mission ought to pour cold water on the idea that it will do much to help alleviate human rights abuses.

Egypt’s sinking economy belongs to the Islamists now

The political turmoil that has gripped Egypt for much of the past eleven months has distracted from the most critical question facing Egypt today: Can the Muslim Brotherhood, which is poised to lead Egypt’s emerging civilian government, fix an economy that is in far worse condition than when the uprising began last January?

With peace on ice, Palestinians chase UN, unity

With peace talks in the doldrums, the Palestinians have fixed their sights on global activism and unity between their rival factions in order to advance their cause.
“We are in a ‘hudna’ [truce] until January 26,” senior Palestinian official Nabil Shaath told reporters at a recent briefing.

Hamas leader’s tour theme: Fight “Judaization” of Jerusalem

The tour of Arab capitals being conducted by Hamas Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh should throw cold water on the idea that the Hamas-Fatah unity pact will result in greater Palestinian flexibility and willingness to make peace with Israel. Haniyeh, who was in Cairo yesterday as part of his triumphant journey through the Middle East, made it clear that Hamas’ priority remains heating up the conflict with the Jewish state. By using the visit to call upon Muslims and Arabs to fight against what he called the “Judaization” of Jerusalem, the leader of the Gaza-based terror movement shone a spotlight on a new phase of incitement toward violence.

Khaled Abu Toameh: Hamas bans Fatah celebrations

The decision to ban the celebrations was taken despite the recent rapprochement between the two rival parties.

December 27

2011-12-27T12:05:00.006-06:00

Bret Stephens: The Arab revolt in retrospect

This has been the year of Arab upheaval, but upheaval needn't mean surprise. In Egypt, there was an 82-year-old dictator, 29 years in power, seeking a sixth presidential term via another rigged election while scheming to hand off power to his unpopular son. This was never going to go down well, with or without prior turmoil in Tunisia. And it could all be seen coming for years.

The real outcome of the Iraq War: US and Iranian strategic competition in Iraq

The events of the last few days have made it all too clear that the US celebrated the end of the Iraq War without any realism as to the impact of the war and US occupation or the fact that the real result has been to create a new theater of competition between the US and Iran.

Iran seeks CIA 'spy' death penalty

In a closed court hearing, the prosecution applied for capital punishment, the report said, because the suspect, identified as Amir Mirzaei Hekmati, "admitted that he received training in the United States and planned to imply that Iran was involved in terrorist activities in foreign countries" after returning to the U.S.

Iranian woman sentenced to be stoned to death may be hanged instead

"There is no rush ... our Islamic experts are reviewing Ashtiani's sentence to see whether we can carry out the execution of a person sentenced to stoning by hanging," said Malek Ajdar Sharifi, head of judiciary in the East Azerbaijan province.

ElBaradei: U.S., Egypt in secret talks on fate of Israel peace treaty

The United States is engaged in secret talks with Egypt's ruling military council geared at ensuring that the country's democratically elected regime will maintain its peace treaty with Israel, top Egyptian opposition figure Mohamed ElBaradei said on Tuesday.

Israel’s Turkish dilemma: To lead with head or heart?

After listening to Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan use Israel as a rhetorical whipping boy for years; after seeing Turkish militants with metal bars attack Israeli commandos enforcing a legal naval blockade of Gaza; after hearing the Turks threaten to deploy warships to accompany another flotilla to Gaza; after watching Ankara unceremoniously show Israel’s ambassador the door; after taking note of Erdogan saying Israel has killed “hundreds of thousands” of Palestinians, the gut simply wants to say, “To hell with Turkey.”

Turkey, Israel and the Armenian genocide

It goes without saying that had Turkey not spent the last few years doing everything it could to destroy its erstwhile alliance with Israel there would have been no debate in the Knesset yesterday about whether to commemorate the Turkish genocide of Armenians during World War I. But since the Turks have become the sponsors and perhaps even the financial backers of Hamas, the consensus within the Israel to stay away from anything touching the Armenian question has dissolved. Though there were some MKs who thought the commemoration should be shelved as part of a new effort to win back the affections of Turkey, most Israelis rightly understand the ship has sailed on good relations with its former ally.

Israel mustn't politicize the Armenian genocide

The approximately 1.5 million Armenians who were murdered or driven out in death marches in 1915 deserve international recognition of the holocaust they suffered.

Gaza’s premier in Egypt on his 1st trip outside territory since Hamas takeover

Ismail Haniyeh discussed Mideast politics with the leader of Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood, which has emerged as the biggest winner in the first parliamentary elections in post-uprising Egypt, capturing nearly half of the seats so far.

'Arab world must stop Israel's Judaization of J'lem'

He called on Arab states to step up efforts to stop the "Judaization" of Jerusalem, a city many Palestinians see as the future capital of a Palestinian state, through financial and political means, according to Elaph.

Will Hamas splinter as external leaders seek a new home?

Hamas, it should be noted, was a splinter group in its inception. After the outbreak of the 1987 intifada against Israel, when the Muslim Brotherhood remained committed to non-violence, a militant faction formed Hamas as a jihadi group to target Israelis, military and civilian alike.

Hamas marks 3 yrs since IDF Operation Cast Lead

Hamas marked the three year anniversary of Operation Cast Lead on Tuesday, saying Israeli threats to launch another large-scale operation in Gaza to root out terrorist infrastructure was nothing more than "psychological warfare and propaganda."

Khaled Abu Toameh: Why Hamas wants to join the PLO

Hamas is joining the PLO not because it has changed, but out of a desire to make the Fatah-dominated organization stick to its true mission: the liberation of Palestine from Jordan River to the Mediterranean Sea -- in other words, all the land that is currently Israel -- and to achieve the "right of return" for Palestinian refugees to their original villages and homes inside Israel.

Time for Israel to change the narrative

In one respect, however, Israel is decidedly not normal. In fact, it’s an economic miracle that’s been virtually ignored. This report provides further evidence of just how exceptional its progress has been:

December 26

2011-12-26T11:36:00.004-06:00

Minorities and the Arab Spring: The great divide

The shock waves breaking over the Middle East are not the result of a so called spring of hope. They are the result of the failure of the Arab states to come up with a coherent national narrative uniting their different components and to establish modern societies where all are equals.

Was the Arab Spring a victory for extremism?:

There was a time in Cairo, just a few months ago, when it was considered slightly outré to suggest that Egypt’s religious conservatives might take advantage of Hosni Mubarak’s demise to engineer their way into power.
We were told that battalions of tweeting secularists were steering this revolution, and that the people of Egypt did not want sharia, or Islamic law, to govern their lives. They simply wanted freedom. This was Selma on the Nile.

Afghanistan sets ground rules for peace talks with Taliban

Afghanistan's High Peace Council, in a note to foreign missions, has set out ground rules for engaging the Taliban after Kabul grew concerned that the United States and Qatar, helped by Germany, had secretly agreed with the Taliban to open an office in the Qatari capital, Doha.

Max Boot: Obama’s muddled thinking on Afghanistan

You can see the political logic of what Obama is doing: He is trying to please both hawks and doves. Unfortunately, war is not a realm where half measures are likely to succeed. Adopting an ambitious strategy, as we’ve done in Afghanistan, but not resourcing it adequately, as Obama has also done, is a recipe for slow-motion failure. It is a high-risk strategy that is likely to get a lot of troops killed and for no good reason. Paradoxically, sending more troops would actually reduce casualties by making it easier to dominate the battlefield.

Suicide bomber kills 7 outside Iraq ministry

At least seven people were killed when a suicide car bomber hit Iraq's interior ministry on Monday in the latest attack since a crisis erupted between the Shi'ite-led government and Sunni leaders a week ago.

Analysis: Preparing for the ‘Eastern Front’

On the one hand, there is the long-term strategic concern that following the US withdrawal, the government in Baghdad will have difficulty reigning in the different factions that make up the country and that Iran will take advantage of the power vacuum and move in to solidify its control. A more powerful Iran would not bode well for Israel and Western attempts to convince Tehran to stop its nuclear program.
The second concern is the possibility that Israel will once again have to take into consideration what is referred to in the IDF as the “Eastern Front,” another term for Iraq as a military threat. Iraq was in fact the primary threat that the IDF believed it faced until the mid-1990s following the First Gulf War, when Israel began to shift its focus to the evolving missile and nuclear threat in Iran.

Iraq allows Jordanian trucks to pass through its territory in transit to Turkey, Europe

According to official figures, an average of 3,000 cargo trucks from Jordan use Syria as a transit route to Turkey and Europe every month.
The winter season is a peak period for Jordan’s vegetable exports to several European countries. The exports are usually shipped through Syria, which is also a major importer of Jordanian vegetables.

Syria: 13 killed in Homs as Arab League observers arrive

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights claimed: "The shells fired from heavy machineguns in the Baba Amro district caused 13 deaths on Monday morning and dozens of injuries. The situation is frightening and the shelling is the most intense of the last three days".

Carnage in Homs district as tanks open fire-video

Amateur video shot by anti-government Syrian activists showed carnage in a Homs city street, and locals said they were afraid to leave their homes on Monday as army tanks appeared to fire machine guns and mortars into residential areas.

Assad's regime hunts people in Homs

Pedestrians are rarely targeted in the morning. But beginning in the afternoon and continuing throughout the night, the wide, straight street that separates the Khalidiya and Bayada neighborhoods becomes a death zone. That's when they -- the snipers working for Syrian intelligence, who are nothing more than death squads, and the Shabiha killers, known as "the ghosts," mercenaries who are paid daily wages and often earn a little extra income by robbing their victims -- shoot at anything that moves.

Assad's Lebanese invasion

Whether the wanted man is a dissident Syrian remains unclear -- the family certainly denies any such thing. Nevertheless, the raid by Hezbollah's internal security apparatus follows a pattern of harassment, kidnapping, and cross-border rendition of Syrian anti-regime activists by Syria's many loyalists in Lebanon, which also include rogue police units, pro-Syria political movements, and even Kurdish separatists. As President Bashar al-Assad looks to squelch an astonishingly persistent nine-month revolt, Lebanon is fast becoming another battleground between supporters and opponents of his rule.

Will Hizbullah get Syria's WMD if Assad goes down?

The scenario is one of several that Israel’s security establishment has gamed out in internal deliberations recently, in trying to assess the wider impact of Syria’s spiraling protest movement. Under another scenario, Assad might resort to desperate measures should his grip on power slip, such as firing chemically tipped rockets at Israel.

In Lebanon, That was the year that wasn’t

The bloodless coup should not have come as much of a surprise. Ever since the 2008 Doha agreement, the country has lived an illusion. Yes, there had been stability but it had been based on the ever-present, low intensity intimidation by March 8 and Hezbollah’s ever-present threat of violence. The veiled message was: “Give us what we want or at any time we can collapse the government and/or take our people onto the streets.” And they did.

Egypt Islamist parties the big winners in second round of voting

Islamist parties have solidified their lead in Egypt's historic parliamentary elections, capturing about 70% of the seats up for grabs in the second phase of a three-part poll, according to results released Saturday by election officials and preliminary estimates by the parties.

Barry Rubin: Egypt: As grim Islamists march toward power, the naïve dance in Tahrir Square

Almost 80 percent of Egyptian Muslims in nine provinces voted for radical Islamist parties in the second round of Egypt’s election. Roughly 5 percent voted for a moderate Islamic party and about 15 percent voted for liberal parties.

Hamas explores a safe port from a Syrian storm

In the long run, however, Cairo seems a more natural fit. Egypt controls access to and from Gaza and its peace treaty with Israel affords Cairo a unique mediating role.
Moreover, Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood is emerging as the main political force in the country and ties will inevitably grow closer. This, however, will take time while Egypt settles down. Indeed, while many pieces are falling broadly in a favourable direction for Hamas, the movement will have to ride out a period of uncertainty before new regional alignments solidify.

Khaled Abu Toameh: 'We'll join PLO to keep it true to its mission'

Hamas is joining the PLO not as a result of a change in its ideology but because it wants the PLO to stick to its original platform – liberating Palestine and achieving the “right of return” for Palestinian refugees, Hamas leaders explained over the weekend.
The Hamas leaders’ clarifications came in response to claims that Hamas’s decision to join the PLO was a sign the Islamist movement was moving toward moderation and would abandon its radical ideology.

PM: No negotiations if Hamas joins PA gov't

Netanyahu’s comments to Israel’s ambassadors and consuls- general gathered for an annual meeting at the Foreign Ministry came just days after Hamas and Fatah made strides toward reconciliation, with Fatah agreeing to incorporate Hamas into the PLO to prepare for new elections for the organization’s two key bodies – the Palestine National Council and Executive Committee.

Netanyahu: Israel will not negotiate with Palestinians should Hamas join government

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu commented Sunday on the recent moves by Fatah and Hamas to set up a unity government, saying that Israel would not negotiate with the Palestinians should such a government be established.

The real threat to Middle East Christians

But efforts to scapegoat the Jewish state for the plight of Palestinian Christians are an absurd and politically motivated slur that ignores the real problem: the rise of militant Islam which has made even the town Christians think of as the birthplace of their faith inhospitable for non-Muslims. As the aftermath of the “Arab Spring” protests elsewhere in the Middle East has made clear, the fate of religious minorities in countries where Islamist parties are on the march cannot be assured.

December 25

2011-12-25T12:01:00.004-06:00

Iran rejects U.S. allegations on al-Qaida operative

Iran rejected as "completely baseless" U.S. allegations that it was harboring an al-Qaida member who is accused of operating as a facilitator and financier for the group from the Islamic Republic, the semi-official Fars news agency reported on Sunday.

Israeli intelligence played role in recent US warnings against Iran

Furthermore, the assessment in Israel is that several other U.S. allies in the Middle East have made it clear to Washington that if it does not seriously intend to stop Tehran's nuclear march, these countries would have to conduct a reassessment of their strategic positions – a reassessment not necessarily in Washington's favor.

Iran ready to expand military links with Iraq

"I hope the humiliating failure of the United States after nine years of occupying Iraq will serve as a lesson for them to never think of attacking another country," he said.
Lt Gen Firouzabadi added that Iran was now "ready to expand its military and security ties with Iraq."

‘Iraq refuses passage of Jordanian trucks to Turkey’

Iraq has refused to allow passage of Jordanian trucks heading for Turkey through its territories, citing concerns that such a move would have negative effects on the Syrian people.
. . . In revious remarks to The Jordan Times, Mohammad Dawood, president of the Jordan Truck Owners Association, said Jordanian trucks carrying vegetables and other goods to Turkey and Europe have “rarely” travelled recently through Syria due to the ongoing instability.

Thousands attend funerals for Syria bomb victims

Syrian government has blamed al-Qaida for Friday's deadly bombings; Syria's opposition, however, has questioned the government's account and has hinted that the Assad regime itself could have been behind attacks.

Satire flourishes in Syria as violence intensifies

The violent repression of dissent in Syria has sparked an explosion of satire produced by anonymous artists who are flooding the Internet with film, music and art that mock the Damascus regime.

Egypt court frees prominent revolutionary blogger

Military prosecutors detained Abdel-Fattah on Oct. 30 after he refused to answer questions over his alleged role in sectarian clashes earlier that month in which at least 27 people, most of them Christians, were killed.

Egypt Salafists against improving ties with Israel

Egypt’s leading Salafi movement on Sunday clarified the party's stance on diplomatic relations with Israel, saying that it would oppose an improvement in ties between the two countries.

Haniyeh exits Gaza for tour of Arab, Islamic states

Haniyeh left the Gaza Strip through the Rafah border crossing at the head of a delegation consisting of ministers and top Hamas officials.
The London-based Al-Hayat newspaper said that Sudanese president Omar Bashir sent a private plane to Cairo to pick up the Hamas prime minister.

Reports in Sudan: Israel struck two weapons convoys in past month

The Israel Air Force struck two Gaza-bound arms convoys in the past month, according to reports that have surfaced in the last few days.

'IAF planes strike convoy of vehicles in Sudan'

Arabic news outlet Dar al-Hayyat on Sunday reported "conflicting information" coming out of Sudan regarding alleged Israeli air strikes. According to that report, the governor of Sudan's Red Sea State district recently received notification from several citizens in the region that the IAF had raided smuggler convoys, in Abu Thabaq in the disputed Hala'ib triangle, but according to Dar al-Hayyat, the regional government noted it has no official information regarding whether Red Sea State hospitals received any dead or wounded in the alleged attacks.

Gaza's thriving tunnel imports unleash building boom

Thanks to hundreds of tunnels in the sandy soil of the border zone, a construction boom has buoyed Gaza's otherwise crippled economy, according to a United Nations report.
. . . UN estimates for the import of building materials in September show that 46,500 tons of aggregate arrived via the Kerem Shalom crossing from Israel into Gaza, whereas 90,000 tons came through the tunnels. Some 9,195 tons of cement came through Kerem Shalom, against 90,000 through the tunnels. For steel rods, 1,418 tons transited Kerem Shalom versus 15,000 via the underground routs.

The case for Palestinian nationalism

The Hamas Covenant asserts without equivocation that “the Palestinian problem is a religious problem,” adding that there can be “no solution . . . except through Jihad. Initiatives, proposals and international conferences are all a waste of time and vain endeavors.” As for Israel, the Covenant minces no words: “Islam will obliterate it, just as it obliterated others before it.”
Okay, but what about Hamas’s rival, Fatah, and the Palestinian Authority? In recent years, Western diplomats have placed much hope in Palestinian Authority prime minister Salaam Fayyad, who, I think it fair to say, has made a serious attempt to build institutional and economic foundations upon which an independent and viable Palestinian state might rest.

Archaeology note: Archaeologists scover 2nd Temple seal in J'lem

The Antiquities Authority announced Sunday the discovery of the original store credit - an ancient seal that was used to show payments for offerings.
A 1cm by 1cm ancient seal was found with the words "Pure for God" written in Aramaic, the Antiquities Authority said.

December 23

2011-12-23T11:34:00.005-06:00

Iraqi Kurdistan is booming. Will it ever be a separate state?

As American troops withdraw from Iraq, anyone searching for rays of progress amid the country’s miasma of corruption, sectarian strife, and political stalemate might look to the foothills of Sulaimaniyah, Kurdistan. There, rising rapidly out of some 400 dusty acres, is a gleaming constellation of glass, steel, and Jerusalem stone that is the new campus of American University of Iraq, Sulaimani (AUIS). The venture, which now educates some 500 Iraqi students on the American model, is a sign of Iraqi Kurdistan’s evolution toward a modern, flourishing society. But when I visited the American University this past November, there seemed to be one question on the minds of nearly every Kurdish student I met: When can we get a separate state of Kurdistan?

Assessing the surge in Iraq

Adopted at the end of 2006–by far Iraq’s bloodiest year–the troop “surge” marked a major shift in the George W. Bush administration’s Iraq strategy. Indeed, the Iraq Body Count (IBC) project, which prefers to rely on confirmed media reports rather than studies extrapolating death tolls based on relatively small samples, estimates that there were 27,850 civilian deaths in 2006, compared with just 3,576 in 2010.[1] One analysis by the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) concluded that by November 2006, conditions on the ground resembled anarchy and “civil war.”[2] It was around this time that two competing strains of thought on what change of course should be implemented were circulating among U.S. officials.

Goodbye Iraq. Hello Iran

Iraq's role in the future Middle East will be largely affected by Iran. With the rise of Shiite parties after the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003, Iran has had many opportunities for influencing its political orientation. There are roughly eight Shiite groups in Iraq with ties to Iran, most of which received Iranian funding. This includes the al-Dawa Party of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, who left Iraq in 1979, and actually lived in Iran for eight years from 1982 through 1990. The Iranians gave al-Maliki's al- Dawa Party training. In fact, al- Dawa engaged in terrorist operations on behalf of Iran in Kuwait along with Lebanese Shiites. From 1990 until 2003, al-Maliki lived in Damascus and worked closely with Hezbollah. Since becoming prime minister he has had to carefully balance his ties to Tehran alongside a working relationship with Washington.

Iran to show naval might in key oil-shipping area

Iran will on Saturday start naval exercises in a region crucial for global oil supplies, state TV said, raising concern about a possible closure of the world's No. 1 shipping route for crude in the case of military conflict between Tehran and the West.

Armed with phone, and dangerous to Syria

So fatality estimates are assembled by reports that come in, by twos and twenties, from witnesses like Mr. Yousef, a high-school dropout and former vegetable truck driver. His work is in all likelihood imprecise, and undeniably dangerous.
"When you provide the names of those who are killed, this is the most important thing because the Syrian media tells lies. It says that no one was killed when they were," he said, in another of a series of interviews from locations inside Syria he wouldn't disclose.

Syria vows to fight 'foreign meddling until last drop of blood'

The head of Syrian military intelligence has said bomb attacks that killed as many as 40 civilians and military personnel in Damascus are proof of a foreign project to strike at the country, as he declared they would fight "until the last drop of blood."

Aftermath of Damascus bombings

Two car bombs have exploded in the heart of the Syrian capital, Damascus - the first such attacks since protests against President Bashar al-Assad's regime began nine months ago.

US condemns Syria blasts, says must not hinder Arab League

"It is crucial that today's attack not impede the critical work of the Arab League monitoring mission to document and deter human rights abuses with the goal of protecting civilians. We hope that this mission will proceed unfettered in an atmosphere of non-violence," he said.

Zvi Bar'el: Arab League mission to Syria has nothing to do with saving lives

The first batch of 60 Arab League monitors arriving in Syria on Thursday, out of a total of 150, are to act as a barrier that will prevent the Syrian crisis from reaching the United Nations. Their mission is not to prevent the killing of civilians or implement the league's demands for Syrian President Bashar Assad. They are coming to observe the killing, listen to the claims of civilians and the regime, and report to the league.

Living on borrowed time

Assad's calculations are clear. The Arab League was about to turn to the U.N. Security Council and request that it intervene in Syria's bloodshed. Even Russia, Assad's close friend, is finding it hard to protect him. To prevent the Libyan scenario from happening in Syria, Assad is trying to buy time by acquiescing to Arab League demands, on condition that the League not turn to the Security Council. But Assad's maneuver will only afford him a few extra days. It will not bet enough to significantly change the situation in Syria.

Michael Young: Bye-bye Bellemare

There are other uncertainties as well. The tribunal’s indictment of four Hezbollah members will not be an easy one for the prosecution to make stick. An accusation based on so-called “co-location” analysis of telephone communications is largely circumstantial. Even if the evidence is compelling, the defense will find wide spaces to challenge the prosecution’s case on technical grounds, assuming of course that no stronger proof is presented to buttress the indictment.

The "Independent Shi'a" of Lebanon: What WikiLeaks tells us about American efforts to find and alternative to Hizballah

U.S. diplomatic cables released by Wikileaks have given a new insight into American policy in Lebanon, especially efforts to counter Hizballah. Hizballah’s willingness to use a combination of hard power through violence and coercion, combined with a softer touch via extensive patronage networks has given them unmatched control over the Shi’a community since the 2005 Cedar Revolution. Using these released cables, this study will focus on efforts, successes, and failures made by so-called “independent” Shi'a political organizations, religious groups, and NGOs to counter Hizballah’s pervasive influence among Lebanon’s Shi’a.

Welcome to Cairostan

It was barely mentioned in the Israeli and global media, but the following event pertains to the whole of Western civilization: Last Saturday, violent groups of Islamic-Salafi radicals burned the famous scientific institute established by Napoleon in Egypt after its first encounter with the West. Some historians consider it the start of modern times in the Middle East.

Palestinian Authority gives Mideast peacemakers an ultimatum

If nothing happens by Jan. 26, we are going back to our international campaign for recognition," said Nabil Shaath, a senior official in the administration of Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas.

Hamas will focus on popular protests in struggle with Israel, group chief says

Hamas will focus on popular protests to unify Palestinians while not renouncing the use of violence against Israel, the Islamic group's leader, Khaled Meshal said in an interview late Thursday, adding that group would be willing to accept a Palestinian state within the 1967 lines.

Guns for cash won’t work with Hamas

According to the Times, programs like this have worked before in Afghanistan and Iraq, and the $40 million the administration has allocated to deal with the problem should do the trick. But the State Department, like the Times reporting of the story, seems to have forgotten that some of the most dangerous weapons in Qaddafi’s arsenal are not laying around in basements in Tripoli waiting to be turned in for U.S. cash. They’ve already been exported to Gaza.

Fateh, Hamas leaders debate PLO reform in Cairo

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and Hamas leader Khaled Mishaal met on Thursday to discuss reforming the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO) in a bid to allow the Islamist movement to join.

'Abbas in a stronger position with Hamas in PLO'

According to the source, who spoke to Asharq Alaqsat following productive meetings between Palestinian factions aiming to "activate" the reconstruction of a unity Palestinian government, reconciliation of Hamas with the PA would see Abbas become president of a more united Palestinian people, instead of just a segment of it in the West Bank.

Is Hamas joining the PLO or is Fatah joining Hamas?

In line with previous reports of a change in strategy on the part of Hamas, the news that the Islamist terror group has agreed to join the Palestine Liberation Organization may be viewed as further evidence of their moderation. But anyone who imagines that this move will bring the Middle East closer to peace is the victim of a deception. Rather than the PLO moderating Hamas, the integration of Gaza’s rulers into the ruling structures that govern the West Bank merely guarantees it will be even more difficult, if not impossible, for Israel to have a Palestinian negotiating partner.

Khaled Abu Toameh: Barghouti disappointed with prisoner swap

Barghouti, who was arrested by the IDF in 2002 in Ramallah, was tried and convicted on charges of murder and sentenced to five life sentences. Hamas had initially insisted on including Barghouti in the prisoner exchange, but later abandoned the demand.

Lee Smith: Useful fiction

The real question, then, is not whether Palestinian nationalism is “authentic,” but whether this particular national fiction is useful. Gingrich’s proposed alternative identity for the Palestinians—linking these Arabic-speaking, non-Jewish residents of the territories to the rest of the “the Arab people”—is bad for the region, the United States, and Israel.
The problem is that current Palestinian nationalism is not strong enough. If it were, Yasser Arafat and, later, Mahmoud Abbas might have been more inclined to accept the peace deals offered by Israeli prime ministers and American presidents. If Palestinian leadership were more like the early champions of Zionism, who wanted a state for the Jews no matter its size, then the conflict might have been resolved at any point over the last seven decades.

December 22

2011-12-22T11:29:00.003-06:00

Can Iraq’s government keep control?

If a picture is worth a thousand words, this video—depicting the brazenness of Iraqi oil smuggling—should be worth far more. This is not simply the result of tampering with metering at the oil facility, or government-sponsored smuggling such as the oil which the Kurdistan Regional Government sends to Iran. That Iraqis can turn a pipeline into a gusher—well-coordinated to fill a line of waiting oil tankers—is proof positive that the government is far from prepared to handle security and the functioning of state. (If you don’t want to watch the full video, watch a bit at the beginning and then skip around to the last quarter or so).

Iraq gripped by sectarian crisis as 63 killed in wave of bombings

At first sight, the blasts are likely to be attributed to Sunni groups, in response to the hard line taken by the Shia Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki in the days since American forces observed President Obama's promise to withdraw by the end of the year.

Baghdad bombs Q and A: What is happening in Iraq?

Why are these attacks taking place now?
The last American troops left Iraq on Sunday, creating a security vacuum that extremists have probably been planning to exploit for some time. They have known for the best part of a year that US forces would depart at some point in December 2011. The scale and complexity of Thursday's attacks – with 14 bombs exploding across Baghdad – strongly suggests a long period of preparation.

Baghdad bloodbath threatens sectarian chaos in Iraq: Will Iran stoke or douse the fires?

A series of deadly bombings across Baghdad that killed at least 63 people and wounded hundreds on Thursday underscored the political and security peril facing Iraq amid rising sectarian tension. Officials said four car bombs and ten other devices were used to target schools, markets and government buildings in at least a dozen neighborhoods over a series of hours. Although no group has yet claimed responsibility, the scale, coordination and civilian targeting prompted analysts to see the signature of al-Qaeda in Iraq in the attacks. And although an operation of this scale would likely have required months of planning, it will have sharply raised the stakes in the escalating sectarian political confrontation between the Shi’ite-dominated government of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki and the country’s Sunni political leadership.

Max Boot: “Mission (not) accomplished” in Iraq

If there is one thing we have learned about Iraq during the last decade, it is that violence is a direct reflection of the political process or lack thereof. When politics was dysfunctional in 2003-2007, violence skyrocketed. Once the success of the surge kicked in, the political process began to function again and various factions could resolve their disputes with back-room deals rather than with bombs and rockets. Now that U.S. troops have pulled out, the political process is fraying once again. Consider the events of just the past few days.

U.S. urges greater Iran sanctions implementation

"No one, after reading the November report, can reasonably believe Iran's contention that its continuing uranium enrichment program is for peaceful purposes only," she said, adding that the IAEA board's censure of Iran showed that its "illicit nuclear activities are unacceptable."

'US, Israel on same page over Iranian threat'

The United States understands the true military threat posed by Iran's nuclear program and is on the same page with Israel regarding the severity of the issue, Home Front Defense Minister Matan Vilnai said Wednesday, according to Channel 10 news.

Nuclear sanctions won't affect Iran economy, Russia official says

Speaking to Iran's official news agency IRNA, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman Alexander Lukashevich said that Russia had "declared time and again that Russia is opposed to any anti-Iran action by the international community and believes that they will be useless."
"We are now witnessing that the previous sanctions against Iran were all futile," Lukashevich said.

Tony: Russia’s UN proposal on Syria buys time for Assad

This past week, Russia made headlines with a couple of calculated moves on the Syrian crisis. Namely, it introduced a draft resolution at the UN Security Council and advised the regime of President Bashar al-Assad to sign the Arab League’s initiative. While most commentary saw the move as a possible hardening of the Kremlin’s position toward Assad, it is, in fact, an obvious maneuver aimed at sabotaging US policy.

Defense Ministry kills deal to sell intel system to Turkey

The diplomatic crisis with Turkey intensified on Thursday after the Defense Ministry decided not to renew an export license for Elbit Systems and Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) to sell advanced intelligence systems to the Turkish Air Force.

Hamas agrees to join PLO

Senior Hamas leader Mashaal reportedly joins PLO elections committee during Palestinian unity talks in Cairo.

Hamas for sale?

Hamas and Turkish officials deny the report, and Hamas probably won’t submit to an external audit any time soon. But let there be no doubt: Hamas is for sale, thanks to the Iranian nuclear program and the Arab Spring.

December 21

2011-12-21T15:57:00.004-06:00

Nouri al-Maliki threatens to replace Sunni ministers

As a sectarian crisis deepened just days after the last American troops pulled out of the country, Nouri al-Maliki, a Shia, promised a fair trial for Mr Hashemi, who has fled to the autonomous Kurdish region after learning that he was wanted for plotting assassinations during the insurgency.

Maliki acting ‘like Saddam’ — Sunni bloc leader

Iraq's Nouri Al Maliki is acting like Saddam Hussein in trying to silence opposition and he risks provoking a new fight back against dictatorship, one of Maliki's predecessors as prime minister said on Tuesday.
Iyad Allawi, who leads the Sunni-backed Iraqiya bloc, said the televised confessions Maliki has used to demand the arrest of the country's Sunni Muslim vice president were fabrications.

Nouri al-Maliki is pulling Iraq apart

To understand the brewing political crisis, we should remember a few important things. First, Iraq is not really a normal democracy – it’s a negotiated state, delicately balanced between assorted ethnicities and sects. It’s a game of geopolitical Jenga, in which the removal of one block, a single Sunni leader, can bring the whole edifice crashing down. That’s why Hashimi, after being put under the cosh, suddenly turned up in a northern part of Iraq controlled by the Kurdish authorities. He knew that Baghdad couldn’t touch him there. He’s now a fugitive from his own government.

Iraq: left to the wolves

Mr Hashimi fled to the relative safety of Kurdistan, before denouncing the charges as a coup, but he joins a growing list of internal exiles – all of them Sunni. Apart from Mr Hashimi, the deputy prime minister Saleh al-Mutlaq has been ordered not to turn up to parliament again. The Awakening Council, the Sunni fighters who turned on al-Qaida, have been left in the lurch. Iraq appears set to return to the sectarian mire.
Anyone but a US president in a hurry, determined to slam the door shut on Iraq, could have seen this coming. . . .

Obama bungles Iraq, as predicted

Is Iraq unraveling just weeks after President Obama pulled all troops out of the country, against the advice of his military and in defiance of critics? Thomas Donnelly of the American Enterprise Institute tells me this morning: “Indicting a vice president and killing his bodyguards is out there, even by Iraqi standards. Maliki must have had these moves in mind even while meeting with Obama last week and before. And the Kurds are protecting Hashemi, so there’s obviously broad-based Kurd-Sunni opposition to Maliki’s power-grab. Not yet a civil war, but a pretty brutal punctuation to the ‘end’ of the war.”

As further sanctions loom, plunge in currency’s value unsettles Iran

Iran’s currency, the rial, tumbled in value to its lowest level ever against the dollar on Tuesday in panic selling caused in part by the country’s increased economic isolation from international sanctions, an unbridled inflation problem and worries that government officials there are ideologically incapable of devising a workable solution.

Syrian rebels take fight to Bashar al-Assad’s heartland

This is not Homs, Idlib, or any of those Syrian towns that for months have been in the throes of rebellious unrest and violent crackdown. This is Douma, a large satellite town on the edge of Damascus, the heartland of support for President Assad’s regime.

Syria opposition: Assad forces kill more than 250 in last 2 days

A Syrian military operation in a stronghold of army deserters has killed a total of more than 250 people, activists and the opposition said Wednesday, ahead of an Arab League observer mission to monitor implementation of a peace plan.

Lee Smith: White House draws equivalence between Syrian opposition and regime

By calling on “all parties to put an end to violence,” Obama supposes that the opposition will be spared further bloodshed if it puts down the arms it picked up in self-defense. But because the White House will do nothing to protect the opposition, the president is effectively calling on them to stand and die with dignity, until Bashar al-Assad gets tired of killing.

Syria’s economy is nearing the brink

Syria’s economy is contracting rapidly. It is estimated that since the protests began, the country’s gross domestic product has shrunk by as much as 20 percent. Revenues from oil and tourism, two important sources of foreign income, have almost disappeared. Recent Arab League sanctions have closed the trading route between Turkey and the rest of the region, cutting customs revenues.

Egypt criticises Hillary Clinton

Egypt's foreign minister has criticised foreign "interference" following impassioned comments by US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton denouncing the stripping and beating of a female protester.

Israel slams Europeans for peace process positions

Israel fired off a sharp and rather undiplomatic riposte to four European countries Wednesday, saying they were risking losing credibility and relevance with their reflexive condemnations of construction beyond the Green Line and selective interpretation of Quartet statements.

'Abbas putting extremist murderers on pedestal'

Abbas met with Muna along with ten other Palestinians freed and exiled to Turkey as part of the deal to release kidnapped IDF soldier Gilad Schalit in October. Muna, the so-called "Internet Murderer" was serving a life sentence for luring 16-year-old Ofir Rahum to Ramallah where he was murdered in 2001.

PLO reviews security coordination with Israel

The Palestinian Liberation Organisation (PLO) is currently reviewing whether to halt security coordination with Israel and downgrade the PLO's ties with Israel taking into account stalled peace negotiations and the undermining of the political atmosphere, said a top PLO official.

MEMRI: Sheikh Nader Al-Tamimi, Mufti of Jordan-based Palestinian Liberation Army, to West:

Sheikh Al-Tamimi: "In the Levant, we are involved in a fierce battle, and we will bring about a change in Syria and in the Levant in its entirety. The infidels divided the Levant into four states, and we will reunite them into a single state. The Safavid enterprise that led to Iran occupying Iraq, along with the Americans and the Zionists, will end in the garbage bin of history. The Caliphate in the path of the Prophet will return.

The Arabs of Palestine saw themselves as part of Syria 90 years ago

The picture reflects the political tensions in Palestine after the British captured the area from the Ottoman Empire. The region was being divided up by the Great Powers with France taking over Syria and Lebanon, and Great Britain assuming the mandate of Palestine (both sides of the Jordan River) and Iraq. And in accordance with the 1917 Balfour Declaration, Palestine was to house the national Jewish home. By 1922, the British had lopped off the eastern bank of the Jordan (some 70 percent of Palestine) to establish the Kingdom of Transjordan for Emir Abdullah.

Apple buys Israel's Anobit for $500 million: report

Last week, Calcalist said Apple was interested in Anobit's technology to increase and enhance the memory volume and performance of its devices. The chip may as much as double the memory volume in the new iPads and MacBooks.

December 20

2011-12-20T11:28:00.004-06:00

Barry Rubin: Biden makes it seem as if you can only be an enemy of U.S. interests if you attack the World Trade Center

It is true that September 11 and other massive terrorist attacks are of huge significance. But there’s a whole world out there. Revolutionary Islamists are taking over the Middle East, moving toward the rule of tens of millions of people, getting nuclear weapons, carrying out subversion and terrorism against U.S. allies, and inciting hatred of the United States and a passionate desire to hurt it.
. . . To be fair to Biden, however, it is understandable that he must downplay the Taliban threat in this case because he is justifying the coming U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan. Yet what he says is far more revealing in a damaging way than the superficial criticism—Biden says Taliban is not our enemy—misses.

Obama punting away victory in Afghanistan?

But it seems apparent what the administration is up to. As a conservative analyst critical of the administration put it, “If you have decided to quit Afghanistan, which the administration probably has, then all that is left is to negotiate the terms of surrender.” Or to make the excuse that the people with whom you are negotiating are not your enemies.

Iraq's vice presidency vows to fight against terror charges

Tareq al-Hashemi, Iraq's Sunni Arab vice president, denied terror charges against him and vowed to defend himself in a defiant news conference as rival leaders called for urgent talks to resolve a worsening crisis.

Max Boot: Is Iraq spinning out of control?

The political situation in Iraq continues to deteriorate at an alarming rate. Shiite Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki already stands accused of ordering the arrest and torture of aides to the Sunni vice president, Tariq al Hashimi. Now an arrest warrant has been issued for Hashimi himself based on the coerced confessions which were aired on television, in the best Stalinist show-trial tradition.

Iran says invites UN nuclear agency to visit

Ambassador Ali Asghar Soltanieh said earlier this month Iran sent a letter to UN nuclear agency chief Yukiya Amano, who last month issued a report which pointed to military links to Tehran's nuclear program, a charge it denies.

U.S. Defense Secretary: Iran could get nuclear bomb within a year

"The United States does not want Iran to develop a nuclear weapon. That's a red line for us and that's a red line, obviously, for the Israelis," he told CBS.
"If they (Iran) proceed and we get intelligence that they are proceeding with developing a nuclear weapon then we will take whatever steps necessary to stop it."

Daniel Pipes: Tehran holds Obama re-election wild card

Today, Iran has two potential roles in President Obama’s re-election campaign, as disrupter in Iraq or as target of U.S. attacks. Let’s look at each of them:

UAE says oil pipeline bypassing Hormuz almost done

The Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline project aims to ship crude from the UAE's main oil producing region to the port of Fujairah on the country's Gulf of Oman coast.

Qatar can’t replace Saudi Arabia

Many writers and analysts are focusing on the rising regional role of Qatar, given that it was considered the main driving force behind the "tough" Arab League stance on Syria. Some are even suggesting that Qatar is assuming the role of the main regional pro-western power assigned for Saudi Arabia.

Khaled Abu Toameh: Arab Spring sending shudders through Christians in the Middle East

The Bethlehem mayor's Christmas message completely ignored the fact that the "Arab Spring" has been anything but a blessing to Christians living in the Arab countries. According to Rita Daou, a reporter for Agence France Press, "The rise of Islamist movements in countries swept by the Arab revolutions has sent shudders throughout the region's Christians who fear for their survival and question the make-up of the Middle East."

Syria imposes death penalty on those arming 'terrorists'

"The law provides for the death penalty for anyone providing weapons or helping to provide weapons intended for the carrying out of terrorist acts," the official SANA news agency said.

Barry Rubin: Syria: The forgotten — Including by the Obama Administration — revolution

I feel guilty every day that I don’t write about Syria’s revolution. There are massive numbers of demonstrators taking high risks and often paying with their lives for their desire for change; Syria has a higher proportion of really democratic-minded people than in other Arab countries; and there is general international indifference to their battle in contrast to the “glamor” surrounding the far shorter, much less bloody Egyptian uprising. The estimated death toll is over 4,000, though, of course, nobody knows for sure.

Egypt: protesters 'died of gunshot wounds'

Most of the 13 people killed in recent days of anti-military clashes in Cairo died of gunshot wounds, and one died in detention after suffering head trauma, Egypt's chief forensic doctor said.

Hamas on the move

For more than a decade, Hamas’ strategy was based on being simultaneously allied with both the Sunni Muslim Brotherhood network and the, essentially, Shiite, Iranian-led alliance. This incongruous ideological contortion was made possible by a narrative embraced by both of these broader anti-status quo alignments: that the Middle East was the site of a trans-historic battle between a "culture of resistance" and a "culture of accommodation."

Palestinian parties walk out of unity talks in Cairo

Some of those factions, including the PRC, are outspoken opponents of Fatah's more diplomatic approach to dealing with the Israeli government. Israel and the United States see the PRC as a terrorist group.

The Palestinian balance of terror

Though some Palestinian apologists claim the unity deal will housetrain Hamas, this contradicts everything we know about the terrorist group. Far from the deal illustrating the willingness of Hamas to acquiesce to Israel’s existence, the relative shift in strength between the two movements since May as well as the growing influence of Islamists in Egypt shows progress toward implementation of the pact makes peace with Israel impossible.

Finding fault in the Palestinian messages that aren’t so public

While Palestinian Media Watch acknowledges that there is less blatant incitement than in the past, with fewer direct calls for violence, it says that the Palestinian Authority still glorifies terrorists, “libels” Israel and promotes a culture of violence.

Denying Palestinian hate won’t bring peace

Ever since the signing of the Oslo Accords in 1993, Americans and Israelis who were trying to make peace in the Middle East have had one insoluble problem: how to explain the fact that Palestinian leaders say one thing to the Western media and quite another to their own people in Arabic. The answer for the peace processers was to either ignore or rationalize the consistent incitement and hatred coming from Palestinian sources lest the truth about their intentions dampen enthusiasm for Israeli concessions or for pressure on the Jewish state to surrender territory.